Vanco Share Discussion Threads

[markycrispy] 30/8/2007 12:05

what happened here - looks well over done.Have set a buy order!

[dadair] 26/8/2007 19:56

I suppose the AT means they're automatics?

[cr4zyness] 24/8/2007 18:47

Its the new company cars being bought! lol

[dadair] 24/8/2007 10:01

Whats with all the VW trades?

[cap123] 22/8/2007 21:43

wats the e.t.a of this share getting back to 5.14?

[holts] 22/8/2007 16:53

rob burns bailed out just before the latest debacle, as long as you are a long termer this will correct itself, good luck to evil though, he has made is wedge.

[standish11] 22/8/2007 11:57

Evil'strategy seems to be to short where there are little or no tangible asstes and/or weak cash flow and the latter has made his money on this occasion.I do however think that Vanco's share price will recover when the shorters close their positions over the coming weeks and identify fresh targets.

[jaydeee] 21/8/2007 08:58

Meanwhile Dresdner have a target price of 519p (updated yesterday with a buy) and Goldmans have a target of 487p. Can they all be so wrong!!

[mike456] 20/8/2007 21:15

Fortunately for me, my stop loss was activated last week at £3.60 before today's fall for only a 25p loss, as I believed that price to be around the support level

I have to admit to being tempted to buy back in this morning but thought better of it, as the board will have to show better cash management skills if the share price is to recover.

Having said that, I think the company has lots of potential and I'll be keeping an eye on it

[standish11] 20/8/2007 14:14

It looks as though Evil was right all along and unusually Robbie Burns called it wrong on this occasion although he has made a small fortune out of this in the past!

[jaydeee] 20/8/2007 10:23

I am one of Vanco's biggest fans, but I have to say they have not played this well at all. Business is great, but surely they realise by now that the market expects business to be good. They meet their targets every time!! What the market wants from Vanco is a decent cashflow. Cash is king in todays market. People are worried about credit, even for quality companies. The Directors either can't achieve a decent cashflow, or, if they could, just take no notice of the market. In either case, they would do far better taking the company private at these prices. I can't see this share recovering for at least 18 months now!! Very sad, 'cos it is a great concept and a great company with great management. They just haven't listened to the market!! Any bulls out there, let us know, please.

[jaydeee] 20/8/2007 10:16

Trading in the first six months has continued to be strong, with the total order
intake between 1 February 2007 and 31 July 2007 from new and existing customers
now amounting to some £120m compared to £49.5m in the equivalent period in the
previous financial year. Of this, it is estimated that around £21m of revenue is
recognisable in the year ending 31 January 2008, and around £16m will be
received in cash before 31 January 2008. This estimated recognisable revenue
represents 42 per cent of the new business revenue required in order to achieve
the consensus revenue expectation for the full year. This is ahead of the
position at the same period last year. This excludes the full effect of any
additions or changes to customers' networks and, in addition, the effect of
moves, adds and changes (MACs) with existing customers, which continue to be in
line with the historic average.


Accordingly, we remain confident that the revenue and operating profit for the
year ending 31 January 2008 will be in line with consensus market expectations,
being revenue of approximately £227m (2007: £183.2m) and operating profit of
approximately £27m (2007: £19.5m).


Free cash flow* for the six months ended 31 July 2007 will be lower than for the
equivalent period last year, with an outflow of approximately £20m (31 July
2006: outflow of £15.1m). This is approximately £10m below our expectations
and is largely due to delays to the signing of three new contracts with existing
customers which were expected to be completed prior to 31 July 2007. In common
with most new contracts, these contracts contain substantial initial fees. One
of these contracts has since been signed and we anticipate signing the other
contracts in due course. Net debt as at 31 July 2007 is expected to be
approximately £37m (31 July 2006: £24.4m).


It is in the nature of our business that forecasts are sensitive to the timing
of contract completions and any resulting impact on the timing of deployment of
sales and operational staff, which is borne out by the recent experience around
31 July 2007.


Further details of the Group's performance, including the cash outlook for the
year, will be provided with the interim results which will be announced in late
September/ early October. These results will be presented by Allen Timpany and
Peter Johnston, the new Finance Director, who joins the Group on 1 September
2007.


* Free Cash Flow is defined as cash generated from operating activities
less net interest less tax paid less capital expenditure less finance lease
payments.

[wipo1] 20/8/2007 09:13

I hope people have sold and learned their lesson on this one, don't throw good money after bad.

[gswredland] 20/8/2007 08:50

Delays in signing contracts! nasty

[jaydeee] 16/8/2007 11:02

without stating the obvious - its the market trend rather than a company trend here

[wipo1] 16/8/2007 10:43

Looking very bearish, nov 2006 low broken.

[jaydeee] 16/8/2007 10:25

Vanco Positioned in the Challengers' Quadrant for Global Network Service Providers 2007 Magic Quadrant

London, 15th August 2007 – Vanco, the pioneering global Virtual Network Operator (VNO), announced today that it has been positioned by Gartner, Inc. in the "2007 Global Network Service Providers' Magic Quadrant" report.1



The Gartner Magic Quadrant for Global NSPs evaluates providers of fixed corporate network solutions spanning the world.



Two broad measurement criteria are used:

§ Completeness of Vision – including market understanding, marketing strategy, sales strategy, product strategy, business model, industry strategy, innovation and geographic strategy.

§ Ability to execute – including product/service, overall viability, sales execution/pricing, market responsiveness and track record, marketing execution, customer experience and operations.



Allen Timpany, Vanco's founder and chief executive officer, commented, "We consider Vanco's position in the Global Magic Quadrant to be an historic moment and a perception changing point in the industry. The VNO model, pioneered by Vanco, now stands head to head with the largest Asset Based Carriers (ABCs) in the world. We are the only company that is totally dedicated to enterprise networking demands. We don't have to balance what is best for enterprise network customers against the demands of a consumer and SME business as our ABC competitors do."



Allen Timpany added, "Our asset-light model, which gives our customers access to 100% of the available solutions and technologies in the market, and our commitment to focus on customer service and delivering solutions in line with their changing requirements makes us stand apart from the market."

[wipo1] 09/8/2007 17:17

yeah I am very surprised it has held up so much. I would not hold this kind of share in these markets.

[groovyman] 01/8/2007 09:41

Yeah strenth alright,I smell a dead rat.pooh what a stink

[nobbyk1] 31/7/2007 15:39

should start to see a bit of strength from here

[mike456] 22/7/2007 01:55

Hope so ... I think I can see a falling wedge pattern forming which might be about to breakout

[riskblue] 17/7/2007 08:04

interesting announcement this morning. Will this be the trend breaker?

[sarahbudd] 16/7/2007 15:35

Have the shorting brigade decided enough's enough? Hope so

[mike456] 15/7/2007 21:11

I don't think it is fair to compare the two companies

Quoting from the last accounts to 31 January 2007, Vanco generated free cash of £5.4m

I'm not quite sure how that figure is derived. but I prefer to look at the cash burn, which I estimate at £11m in the last financial year

I have calculated this from the headline figures in the statutory accounts, as follows:

Increase in cash and cash equivalents £9.5m
Loans raised during year (£18m)
Proceeds from issued share capital (£2m)
Foreign exchange losses (£0.5m)

Adding my estimate of another £2m to cover the servicing of the additional £20m debt this figure would rise to £13m, but this also includes the purchasing of £3.6m of intangible assets that I would guess could be avoided if the company was short of cash.

With £19.5m held in cash and cash equivalents the company could survive for about two years without taking into account any additional cash generated by improved profitability, so I don't think there is any cause for concern.... especially as a large proportion of revenue is supported by ongoing contracts

Further comfort can also be drawn from the cash generation from Vanco's contracts being weighted towards the end of the contract term. This would make it possible for the company to avoid writing any new business and wait for the cash generated from existing contracts to come through.

This approach is clearly not a sensible one for a growth company, but at least it shows that something effective could be done in a doomsday scenario.

Compare this with Carter and Carter that has increased debt and overheads in anticipation of winning a significant number of contract tenders in a single tendering round, that ultimately proved to be unsuccessful. The only route for survival I can see for that company is significant cost cutting to enable it to service the debt, but I'm not sure how achievable this would be given that, from what little I know of C&C, its income generation depends on providing training which would necessitate quite a high level of ongoing personnel costs to meet it's obligations.

Needless to say I'm fortunate enough not to have invested in C&C, a decision made on the basis that their business model seemed to me to be highly risky ... Vanco's approach appears to me to be very different ... win the contracts from a variety of sources, ensuring that sufficient cash is in place to fund them in the early stages and then get to the stage that the cashflow being generated by the contracts coming towards the end of their term enables the company to fund further new contracts in the future.

Time will tell whether the bulls or bears are right on this one, but I believe I've made the right decision in buyin Vanco at £3.85 on Friday.

Does anyone know who bought the 200,000 shares for £3.88 just before friday's close?