Vale Int Share Discussion Threads

[pugugly] 24/1/2006 13:49

10p bid resistance level (imo) If broken then could be blue sky to 15p.

[rainmaker] 24/1/2006 12:53

HP-share is edging up and one MM is quietly buying whatever stock he can lay his hands on without spooking the market-feel that he has fast come to the conclusion that the potential upside significantly outweighs slight downside in the light of corporate activity elsewhere in the sector

regards

[rainmaker] 23/1/2006 13:33

Des Walker-The same pattern as in recent days-the actual bid is significantly higher than the one advertised and there is far more volume on the bid than the offer-today it is 9.55 v 9.00 last week it was the same situation, 8.75 v 8.00-a portent of things to come?

Interestingly the MM have "shaken the tree" a few times in recent months(lowered the bid for no other reason than to buy back stock cheaply)but to no real effect.Price up again despite a weak market.It will be interesting to see their reaction if the price continues to firm.

regards

[hugepants] 23/1/2006 13:05

Yes illiquidity isn't always a negative. Share prices can go up on low volume just as easily as they can drop.

[deswalker] 23/1/2006 11:30

very firm market online. max buy is 10k at 9.9. can sell 75k at 9.55

[rainmaker] 20/1/2006 14:56

Thanks All. Fully expect share price to break through 10p in the next two months(probably a lot sooner) and reach 16/18p in the initial rally for reasons previously posted namely that average rating for shares in this sector is 25 times and this Co will met it's earnings estimates (as has not announced a profits warning) Longer term there is considerably more. There's an awful lot of upside from here and very little downside risk at current levels

regards

[hugepants] 20/1/2006 13:40

Corporate tax rate in Italy is 33% versus 30% in UK

[pugugly] 20/1/2006 12:00

Tax charge I think you will find largely relates to the tax situation in Italy - a major market where the tax rate is much higher.

[hugepants] 20/1/2006 08:31

RM, Tax charge is something I dont really understand but interim tax charge last year was £125,000 but only £53,000 for the full year. Tax calculations seem to be very complex. Perhaps it has something to do with goodwill write-off not being allowed to reduce tax. And perhaps at YE they can utilise their previous trading losses. There is an unrecognised deferred tax asset in the accounts of 0.45M.

[rainmaker] 20/1/2006 01:27

HP re depreciation charge-Agree that EBITDA is the best guide to this Company's profitability. Don't read too much into the depreciation and the Co making duff purchases.All that has happened is Co has paid more than NAV for acquisitions and that premium is represented(less any value adjustment/impairment by the Co)by the so called "purchased goodwill" shown in intangible fixed assets of it's balance sheet which it writes off against profits.

regards

[rainmaker] 20/1/2006 01:17

Anybody know the reason for the high tax charge in the last set of figures?

regards

[sat69] 19/1/2006 12:41

FREE TIP!

Anybody interested in a turnaround story should look at Tinopolis (TIN)

They have just secured the purchase of Television Corp, and the shares have now started to recover from 5 year lows....

Another recovery is taking place...just tike TFC

[jim_black] 19/1/2006 12:41

Some very good posts on here now. Thx

[rainmaker] 19/1/2006 01:15

Another gem is that this Company has been increasing it's turnover at an excellent 15% pa which is all the more impressive when you have a look at the Company's costs which has risen at nothing like that rate!!!!

CEO owns approx 12%-the expression "Owner like Care"(Warren Buffett), springs to mind.When I first studied this Company I noticed his willingness to openly discuss costs which is usually a good sign and one year his tone almost seemed apologetic over a 2% rise in some overheads.

regards

[rainmaker] 19/1/2006 00:50

HP re Post 93 that's Human Psychology for you!Put the price up and (perversely) people begin to appreciate that's it's cheap!!!

Reason I ask when the results are being released is that Company enters it's "close period" in the two months prior to the release of results when it cannot discuss trading figures.

Seems to me there is a conspiracy amongst VIP MMs to keep the advertised VIP share price low?(not a CT Nut)as spread advertised as 8/10 but whereas buying is coming in at 9.75 as you would expect, you can sell at 8.75 with volume-if you want-in a generally very weak market.Anyone else noticed this??Like the MM do not want to advertise higher prices for VIP which would be v noticeable in a sea of red

regards

[trixter] 18/1/2006 17:18

HP - agree completely. I am looking for VIG to be in the 20 (easy) - 25 p range on a 12 month timescale.

[deswalker] 18/1/2006 16:47

PLN interims out too HP

[hugepants] 18/1/2006 16:45

This is very good news I think. Planit(PLN) have just announced an acquisition as expected (of PathTrace) and it illustrates how much VIG is undervalued.

Heres the RNS


Pathtrace is a leading Computer Aided Manufacturing (CAM) software developer
whose highly respected edgeCAM suite of products operate in the specialised
engineering sector...

So PathTrace is a very similar business to VIG

Planit have paid 5M in cash for PathTrace.

In the financial year ended 30th June 2005, Pathtrace made an operating profit of £189,000 on turnover of £5,958,000. Its net assets as at 30 June 2005 were £2,035,000.

Compare these numbers with VIG's.
For a HALF YEAR to end June 2005 VIG had an operating profit of £213,000 on 5.4M revenues and thats AFTER writing-off £249,000 of goodwill. The NAV at this date was 4.35M and included 1.4M in cash. Current market cap of VIG is 3.4M

Id suggest if PathTrace is worth 5M then VIG is clearly worth a lot more. VIG share price could easily double and still look modestly valued.

[trixter] 17/1/2006 17:53

RM/HP - April 6 (I recall). They have a nice up to date website (as you know) and the key financial dates for 2006 already posted. Looks professional.

[hugepants] 17/1/2006 17:49

March/April time I think RainMaker.
As you say stripping out cash gives an enterprise value of about 2M. Daft. I bet the share price will have to rise 30% before investors start thinking "hey this looks cheap!"

[rainmaker] 17/1/2006 16:54

Agreed HP.Another point.I don't know of another hi-tech Software Company that offers the same (spectacular)growth prospects combined with very limited downside-Co is currently trading at Net Working Capital and large proportion of current assets are made up of cash.
Any idea when full year results are being released?Presume March?

regards

[hugepants] 17/1/2006 14:52

Rainmaker/trixter etc,
I guess the 0.67p forecast implies that H2 profit is forecast at 0.65p since H1 was a nominal 0.02p. Personally I think the EBITDA for H1 of 0.56M is a better reflection of the underlying profitability. For a company with a market cap of barely over 3M thats a heck of a lot of EBITDA for only 6 months especially so when depreciation plus interest charges only amounted to 0.12M.