Vale Int Share Discussion Threads

[rainmaker] 13/4/2006 01:35

HP et al-just seen the Broker estimates for the current year(to Dec 2006) and they are 0.71 eps, pre-tax profit of £0.50mln (basically unchanged-consider previous point I made about the treatment of purchased goodwill)on sales of £11mln.

Amazed-as they are saying in effect that the Company profits will remain flat on turnover up some 10%How do they come to that conclusion?-are they aware of IFRS being introduced. I read the statement does it really suggest profits will be unchanged-I don't think so!!I suppose when you only have one Broker then they make any forecast without fear of being compared to other Broker's forecasts and challenged.According to this estimate prospective p/e of 12.5. Comments invited/welcomed

regards

[hugepants] 11/4/2006 17:41

April newsletter

[hugepants] 11/4/2006 17:41

I notice that VIG dont have an "exceptionals" row in their accounts. Given they opened an office in Shanghai and merged some other offices Im sure there must have been one-off costs last year.

[rainmaker] 11/4/2006 01:03

Another point worth making-considering the savage markdown in VIG shares, contrary to what you might expect there has been very little in the way of "panic selling" I've only seen one small clip of 3K!

regards

[rainmaker] 11/4/2006 00:54

Thought about Smirtware's performance with operating profits of approx £100k in four months-£300k on an annualised basis, pretty much covers the current market cap of VIG and the rest of the Business is for free!!

regards

[rainmaker] 11/4/2006 00:49

Don't know if other Posters on this Board share my sense of ease by have to say that not bothered by recent markdown in VIG shares and that initial quote on the day the results were released of 11/13p was about right.IMHO feel that from current levels VIG has no where else go but up!To answer my own question, I strongly believe that the market in such Companies is not efficient- in other words,with only a few analysts following the shares the price does accurately reflect all privately and publicly held information.Compare that with M&S who I understand have something in the region of 30+ Brokers covering their Stock!!


regards

[rainmaker] 10/4/2006 12:36

HP at el-Does anyone deal with Corporate Synergy? With a upbeat trading statement from VIG wondering what forecasts they have for the current year ie Have they revised previous forecast for current year of 0.9p. Judging by increase in EBITDA for 2005 it seems they will exceed this forecast by a country mile!!

Superficiously it appeared that VIG had missed their Profit Forecasts but taking into account the adjustment for Goodwill they actually met them!? Seems ridiculously cheap at current levels? How efficient is the "Market" with Companies such as VIG?

regards

[diazma] 07/4/2006 14:42

Super freeging duper!!

[hugepants] 07/4/2006 14:41

I think youre right Rainmaker


This will make a big difference to next years results. Smirtware wont be amortized now (it may even be revalued upwards)

[rainmaker] 07/4/2006 12:53

Very important point that I have not seen remarked upon on this Board or elsewhere. VI Group will be adopting International Financial Reporting Standards(IFRS) wef from the next set of results the 6 months to the end of June this year.

MORE IMPORTANTLY the Company will be restating it's figures for the twelve months to 31 December 2005(the ones just released). Instead of Goodwill and other associated intangible assets being amortised through the Profit and Loss account they will be subject to an annual impairment assessment ie the premium that VIG paid over NAV for the acquisition will be examined. In my estimation what this means is that the eps for 2005 will be 0.7 pence(taking out goodwill and assuming the tax charge remains the same). If I remember correctly thepre -tax profit will be restated to £500,000 laeving a Net Income of approx £258,000

Another very important point about this accounting change is that in future years the net income will bear greater comparison to EBITDA SO WATCH OUT EVERYONE!!!!!!!!This figure was up 44%.FROM THESE CURRENT LOW LEVELS VERY BULLISH!!!!!!!!!!!!!1


regards

[rainmaker] 07/4/2006 12:40

Tyranosaurus-I take your point about VIG disappointing Investors, I've seen the Chart and looked at the figures over that period. However I think everyone on this Board would agree we've found the bottom ie it's not going to 4/5p based on the Company's fundamentals. I've only recently become convinced of this. The next point I'm going to make is so important that it needs a separate message

regards

[rainmaker] 07/4/2006 12:36

Hi JB-Disappointed with the figuresonly a 5% increase in turnover but the growth story is still intact-surprised that market initially went 11/13 on morning of release

regards

[jim_black] 07/4/2006 09:29

well I was also very surprised the share price went down yesterday. Net asset value is over 4 million and growth is defintly there now. Short termers maybe the cause.

[deswalker] 06/4/2006 18:43

Growth looks very solid to me. Agree the Italian tax situation needs addressing somehow but all the lines before tax are showing extremely good growth.

[tyranosaurus] 06/4/2006 17:55

VIG have been disappointing investors ever since they floated at 50p in 1998.

I know as I have the misfortune to be one of those in from the start.

[varies] 06/4/2006 16:26

Can anyone explain why VIG has to pay so much tax in Italy ?
If one could add back this tax, the results would be much prettier.

[tyranosaurus] 06/4/2006 13:34

They ought to consult tax experts even though this will cost money.

The tax charge is totally out of proportion to the tiny profit.

They should consider closing down in Italy.

[asdfg3] 06/4/2006 10:21

looking rosy

[asdfg3] 06/4/2006 10:20

LONDON (AFX) - CAD/CAM software supplier VI Group PLC swung to a 77.000 stg
pretax profit in the full-year from a 259,000 stg loss a year earlier, and said
it is continuing to seek earnings-enhancing acquisitions.
Sales in the period to end-Dec 2005 rose 5 pct year-on-year, to 10.2 mln stg from 9.7 mln, while EBITDA increased 44 pct, to 757,000 stg from 526,000.
In China, the opening of its representative office in Shanghai last year was a great success, the company said in a statement. Sales in the region have
nearly doubled, more than exceeding its budgetary expectations.
Current indications are that further improvements will be achieved,
particularly in the second half of the year.
"We are finalising our dividend policy in anticipation of achieving
distributable reserves," it added.
[e-mail]

[hugepants] 06/4/2006 10:01

This is the only note I can see on dividends;

"...we are finalising our dividend policy in anticipation of achieving distributable reserves. We hope this will offer encouragement to our loyal shareholders...."

[pugugly] 06/4/2006 09:56

Someone taking the opportunity to unload - On the way back to 7p ? No dividend for the forseeable future?

[deswalker] 06/4/2006 09:08

Note the bit about restructuring in US leading to an effective 3% reduction in revenues. So, if I'm reading it right, a better comparative for continuing global turnover is 9,937*1.03 = 10,235 which is an increase of 5.5% in lfl sales without the restructuring.

They say in a few places that their focus has been on costs. Fine, but now I'm hoping to start seeing revenues accelerating.

H2 is weaker than I'd hoped but then it always has been the weaker half.

Cost reduction in Italy is welcome. Heaven knows why they have so many sites. Hopefully the regional tax charge will fall as a result.

Smirtware looks a great buy. Divi eventually ...

Des

[hugepants] 06/4/2006 08:46

Yes OK but not as good as I was hoping. H2 not as good as H1. Still they imply there should be further improvement this year. Goodwill and high tax charge disguise the fact this is a profitable software company and has been for a few years now.