Vale Int Share Discussion Threads

[pugugly] 16/3/2006 11:28

Rainmaker:- I have found that the MM's here are rather gready but if you have your broker offer between .5p and .75p over their buy price they are sometimes prepared to deal. Needs to be reasonable volume. Say in excess of 40K shares. In this case try 9.35 or 9.75.
Have a good day.

[rainmaker] 16/3/2006 01:41

Can't think of anything else to say other than key chart points-support and resistance points- are 9.5p and 12p.Recent movement from 8p to 11.5 to 9p(a 50% retracement of that move)then followed by a so called measured move to 15/16p ie 11.5-9+11.5p is a very common for a share price action, moving up from a base formation

Company share prices never move in straight lines and at recent highs VIG was overbought even if we are convinced it is worth 18p+ on fundamentals ie average P/E for Sector using forecast EPS,an acquisition of a weaker competitor elsewhere in their Sector etc,etc

regards

[rainmaker] 16/3/2006 01:28

Dear All-It's a bit disconcerting that just before results are about to be released there is/are seller(s)around- 33k and 50K blocks sold at 9p this week. Apparently sales originate from the States not that it makes too much difference, maybe they received a margin call.For those of you not in the know, US Investors are able to borrow against up to 70% of the value of their Portfolio on shares traded above 5 Dollars. In fact, American Brokers will even provide the finance-a so called margin account.Once a Client exceeds their limit on their borrowing they receive a margin call for more funds-either they stump up more money or they are forced to sell stock.

If you have ever seen a film called "The Day the Bubble Burst(1982)" a fictionised account of legendary Stock Speculator, Jesse Livermore at the time of the Wall Street Crash, there is a scene where a Postman hands a margin call letter to an shocked Investor on the morning after the day of the Crash, saying that he had delivered a lot of those purple letters that morning.


The Company had a ADR listing a few years ago and although this was cancelled they can still be traded over the counter -I think it is referred to as "Yellow Slips"Can't help feeling that if these Investors were closer to the action they wouldn't be selling!

On the plus it is interesting to note that after these largish trades the spread remains unchanged at 9/12p-you might think a MM might lower the offer price to 11 pence to sell those 83k shares and make £1600.Or maybe they are happy to cover their short position ahead of the results

Comments please
regards

[rainmaker] 09/3/2006 01:17

Bullish Chart. As previously mentioned, Company is trading in an uptrend channel and needs to break through recent highs.If it does then expect to see and immediate swift test of resistance at late 2004 highs of around 15 pence

regards

[rainmaker] 09/3/2006 01:11

Thanks Jim, for copying that article-if I remember correctly their turnover in Japan in their last year was up a staggering 40%-trading profitable in their second year of trading

regards

[rainmaker] 09/3/2006 01:08

Hi HP-Wait and see but irrespective of what may or may not appear in the coming weeks, I expect a favourable response in the Press when they release their annual results on 6 April

regards

[jim_black] 08/3/2006 14:50

soory I got that from
ive bought more this week also :))

[jim_black] 08/3/2006 14:48

Another company tapping into the Far East market is VI Group, a supplier of CAD/CAM software to the mould and die sector. Entering a collaborative distribution agreement with Japan-based Hitachi Zosen Information System Co (HZS), one of the largest international CAM vendors, CS believes entering Japan could prove lucrative as a route into China. While not expected to make a profit in 2004, this should change by 2005 when a small pre-tax profit of £1.1 million is expected.

[hugepants] 07/3/2006 15:31

Any chance you can divulge some clues Rainmaker?

[rainmaker] 07/3/2006 12:21

Expect to see positive Press coverage in the next week or so

regards

[rainmaker] 06/3/2006 16:51

Orginally I bid for a lot more with no success but all they would give me at the offer price was 10K.Wanted to let the price settle a little but some mad but sensible and prudent b@#%#@$ paid 12 pence. Maybe he has the right idea if its going substantially higher as it is, IMHO

regards

[trixter] 06/3/2006 14:12

This really does move on tiny volume!

[rainmaker] 06/3/2006 12:39

A couple of buys this morning at 10p and another going in for 20K in the next 10 minutes

regards

[rainmaker] 03/3/2006 12:54

The nuts are, if a Company such as VI Group keeps a tight rein on costs(and is not vulnerable to outside external price pressures eg rising raw material costs)and keeps on compounding annual sales at 15% then eventually it reach the bottom line and the Company enters a period of super growth.Hence EPS forecasts for 2005 0.7p and 0.9p for 2006(I make that a 28% increase)

Another factor well worth considering is the fact that the Company's Customers are in the Engineering Sector which has been in recession,in UK and USA at least,yet the Company has still managed to increase organic sales at 8/10 pa-v impressive

regards

[deswalker] 03/3/2006 10:17

HP. I was keeping it quiet whilst I decided how many to buy :) But I'm out of the closet now :) It was the most bullish signal I could find in the interims but as you know there are also a few other snippets which give cause for optimism. Reduced Goodwill (excl Smirtware), cost savings showing through in 2nd half, pleasing start in China, rolling out Smirtware globally, Shoe business is interesting ...

A global company, well positioned for Far East growth, on a cheap as chips rating in terms of earnings, TBV, net current assets and generating cash at a very pleasing rate.

I also view yesterday's RNS as mildly bullish. When companies don't usually issue such a Notice and then they decide to do so, it's usually because they have something to shout about. Fingers crossed.

Starting to wonder if I should go back to lurking and buying more :) But until I see the results, 100k at a 9p average (incl costs) is my limit for such an illiquid tiddler. 27p bid in two years is pefectly reasonable even with very modest growth going forward.

EJ. My reason for bringing up the divi topic was because of Note 2 of the interims and because tiddlers like this can stay cheap for a very long time. Consequently I like to get some divi returns to keep me relaxed, even though I agree that reinvesting any cash back into the business is liable to generate far better returns than in my savings account.

Des

[hugepants] 03/3/2006 09:09

I missed that as well Des. Note 2 from the interims:

2. The Directors do not propose any payment of a dividend although are
considering the introduction of a dividend policy on the production of the next full year accounts

[deswalker] 03/3/2006 08:24

PU, may well be the case. But tucked away in the small print of the interims was a reference to a reconsideration of the divi policy. A subtle but imo important change from earlier results. I'm hopeful anyway.

[pugugly] 02/3/2006 19:37

EJ: DW. From memory I think they may not have enough distributable reserves at this stage to pay dividends. Suggest you check with Julie Randall. [e-mail]

[deswalker] 02/3/2006 17:28

10.5 paid for 84k after the RNS. somebody's keen.