Added a few. |
LMP clearly state they are looking to acquire further, recent hire from British Land as property investment director. |
The maths would work |
I'm guesstimating LMP merges with SHED
within the next 12 months or so. |
Dipped back into this It's just too cheap |
This is tempting. |
Agree the £9k-to-£5k is the worst part, bringing a lot of people into extra admin. So many breadline jobs rely on part timers - the care industry, child minding/creche, hospitality.
But my views on R Reeves been expressed at length elsewhere.
Used to dislike her because she'd been a BoE economist; now dislike her because she pretty much wasn't :-) |
nickrl, employers will cut back part time workers pay from £9100 to £5000, perhaps by taking on more part timers. These sort of jobs tend to be in small service businesses where the employer wants as little hassle as possible jumping through hoops for HMRC.
A lot of part time workers getting £9100 are going to find themselves on £5k and needing to look for a second job to keep their bills paid, plus they're going to have to pay more for the bus fare, another £500 a year that won't be going into their local economy.
Years ago I built up and sold a business employing 200 drivers and 50 warehouse workers, I'm well aware how 'knife edge' some small businesses are run through necessity.
Perhaps we will see some employment agencies become 'inventive'? |
Fully agree, unless its Private Equity of course... all paper bids are the only option for Reits to consolidate due to the discount to NAV. Anyway i have dipped my toe in here at 109 for a long term hold in my SIPP, 14x pe ratio, good debt profile, proactive mgt and 6.9percent dividend. Notice i didn't mention discount to nav as we agree its now largely irrelevant as a valuation metric. New world order. |
SHED is highly likely to be bid for, LMP my best guess - however it won't be at NAV and will likely an all share merger. |
The market isn't focused on discounts to NAV anymore, that recent analyst comment on better ways to value REITS appears relevant. |
I guess a 30% discount, 7% yield and 33% LTV doesn't stand out massively at the moment. However I feel this company has good growth prospects. At least that's what they keep telling us. Bought a few more before it goes ex-dividend tomorrow. |
@rimau1 - the fact DORE isn't at lows (yet!) would put me off a bit. Same of one or two others, whereas the charts on eg FGEN, NESF, BSIF, SEIT etc are all at or well below lows.
Perhaps it's irrelevant - TA is, by definition - and then it's debt profile, yield, security of yield, whether covered etc (not mentioning NAV).
SHED IMO are sensibly managed, and at £1 would definitely interest me. The only missteps to me have been the parcels purchase (Tufnells) and the attempt to buy API, which seemed bizarre - stick to what you're good at. |
A poor ex div day possibly might not help. Sometimes the way. Tempted to buy but the trend is not helpful. |
Well I'm guessing you may need a couple of sizeable down days stateside for a firmer indicator of where we are here - which may not happen. |
I agree, i like Dore in the renewable IT space. Shed is on my watchlist though, i would guess SGRO might have a go at these levels but an all paper offer would not be very attractive. Once API completes i may take a few here |
It is a bit weird tho - the higher-for-longer's been clear for a while, and Trump has been clear since at least the first week after the election, when the scale of the idiocy of his appointments became known.
I'm a buyer - not yet of SHED, but certainly of the renewable ITs. |
All the renewables / infrastructure and a lot of reits really getting hammered atmTrump / higher for longer not helping May not have hit the bottom yet either |
* around the Truss low.
It's possible with an expectation now of..
higher for Much longer!.
Trump is a very likely net negative for both the UK and wider Europe
Understandably he has some cheerleaders in the UK, but be careful what you wish for, etc. |
Surely this can't touch100p. |
Sunday Times seem to have quoted me:
"They [Labour] did a very good job pre the election, making it sound like they were pro-growth, pro-investment, and they had a plan, and then they arrived and they did literally the opposite", said a chairman who claimed his company faced a £25m bill from the Budget's rise in employer NIC. |
I listened to the Lansdsec conference call and they are seeing the best risk adjusted returns in large retail units currently.
One of the reasons appears to be because of growing costs in online order/delivery. Physical stores can offer click and collect. |
 Back to the deductibility of interest, & inclined to agree.
Thought there'd be 3 or 4 extra CT bands, and possibly a first revaluation since 1991, and think that may still be coming. Is a way to bail out councils - adult social care etc.
But a lot just seems broken. Adult social care (this has to be paid for/contributed to, but no politician will grasp the mettle), child social care (far more needed post-Covid and can cost a council £5k/week for a problem child), the NHS (not sure there's an answer to 5.5m waiting for ops, crumbling buildings, or an on-the-sick bill forecast to reach £100bn). There's no easy answer to asylum claims, despite what everyone thinks - if there were, it would have been done - but £6.5bn a year for housing is preposterous.
It's very tough at the bottom - I know people on UC & just imagine how much rent alone eats up - but there needs to be a system that doesn't penalise work. If you do a couple of hours a week at £10/hour you lose 45% of it being deducted from your benefits. Short hours are the route back to full employment, it shouldn't be penalised.
Could go on at some length but the Tories grossly under-invested to try to keep the show on the road, and Labour are proving inept & clueless. Why you'd cut the WFA for borderline breadline pensioners only they know, but twice that amount has been missed by not putting 5p back onto currently cheap fuel.
Bottom line, of course, is don't start from here, with massive debt-to-GDP and interest bill taking up an increasing share of tax receipts.
But we are where we are, and it needs productivity/enterprise/a shrinking State to give us any chance. Labour are offering none of that, pretty much the opposite, and whilst they're going to splurge the spending I've no confidence in it being money well spent, any more than the Tories' HS2.
Things are cheap, SHED and many ITs, but can't help feel they're cheap for a reason.
@Wc104 - I've been struggling to know how to play it, but will look up the TLT Puts - what strike/dates are you buying? |
Tbf the national debt soared over the last 14 years, even when you deduct COVID related spending.
The Tory government left office with the UK having the highest tax take since the end of WW2.
You can look at the IFS comments on Hunt's last budget, it's very clear the tax take would need to increase, yet again.
I don't agree with the NI increase, resi property should be taxed more and businesses less, but the Tories will not do this.
Also, what gets scant attention is the loss of tax revenues from large PE controlled UK businessess.
Morrisons used to pay a fat amount of corporate tax, as one example, how much does the business pay now..
This happens again and again and as a result the rest of us pay more. |
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