Sunday Times seem to have quoted me:
"They [Labour] did a very good job pre the election, making it sound like they were pro-growth, pro-investment, and they had a plan, and then they arrived and they did literally the opposite", said a chairman who claimed his company faced a £25m bill from the Budget's rise in employer NIC. |
I listened to the Lansdsec conference call and they are seeing the best risk adjusted returns in large retail units currently.
One of the reasons appears to be because of growing costs in online order/delivery. Physical stores can offer click and collect. |
 Back to the deductibility of interest, & inclined to agree.
Thought there'd be 3 or 4 extra CT bands, and possibly a first revaluation since 1991, and think that may still be coming. Is a way to bail out councils - adult social care etc.
But a lot just seems broken. Adult social care (this has to be paid for/contributed to, but no politician will grasp the mettle), child social care (far more needed post-Covid and can cost a council £5k/week for a problem child), the NHS (not sure there's an answer to 5.5m waiting for ops, crumbling buildings, or an on-the-sick bill forecast to reach £100bn). There's no easy answer to asylum claims, despite what everyone thinks - if there were, it would have been done - but £6.5bn a year for housing is preposterous.
It's very tough at the bottom - I know people on UC & just imagine how much rent alone eats up - but there needs to be a system that doesn't penalise work. If you do a couple of hours a week at £10/hour you lose 45% of it being deducted from your benefits. Short hours are the route back to full employment, it shouldn't be penalised.
Could go on at some length but the Tories grossly under-invested to try to keep the show on the road, and Labour are proving inept & clueless. Why you'd cut the WFA for borderline breadline pensioners only they know, but twice that amount has been missed by not putting 5p back onto currently cheap fuel.
Bottom line, of course, is don't start from here, with massive debt-to-GDP and interest bill taking up an increasing share of tax receipts.
But we are where we are, and it needs productivity/enterprise/a shrinking State to give us any chance. Labour are offering none of that, pretty much the opposite, and whilst they're going to splurge the spending I've no confidence in it being money well spent, any more than the Tories' HS2.
Things are cheap, SHED and many ITs, but can't help feel they're cheap for a reason.
@Wc104 - I've been struggling to know how to play it, but will look up the TLT Puts - what strike/dates are you buying? |
Tbf the national debt soared over the last 14 years, even when you deduct COVID related spending.
The Tory government left office with the UK having the highest tax take since the end of WW2.
You can look at the IFS comments on Hunt's last budget, it's very clear the tax take would need to increase, yet again.
I don't agree with the NI increase, resi property should be taxed more and businesses less, but the Tories will not do this.
Also, what gets scant attention is the loss of tax revenues from large PE controlled UK businessess.
Morrisons used to pay a fat amount of corporate tax, as one example, how much does the business pay now..
This happens again and again and as a result the rest of us pay more. |
"I don't understand how she/Labour can be in opposition so long, yet have no discernible plan, idea, or clue."
Labour has always had a plan, which never changes - Borrow, Tax, Spend and Waste. |
The £200 WFA won't be taken off the working poor either - it was for pensioners |
@lefrane NI is on employers so won’t take money off employees directly but will indirectly impact them in the long run and Reeves is either naive or stupid or both if she doesn’t see that. |
BB spreads are the tightest since 2006 And that's before we get deregulation - the mini banking crises we had in 2022 was a result of Trump exempting smaller banks from more onerous regulation Trump can turn on a dime on any issue But the mega tax cuts aren't within his control - not that he's not up for it - so think the republicans will push it until the bond market freaks out Thus I keep adding to my TLT puts |
Indeed @EI - she's failed to meet my low expectations. I've had several debates with people telling me how enormously bright she is - junior chess champion, BoE economist, HBOS - yet she seems to lack even the basics (suspect true of BoE economists in general). I don't understand how she/Labour can be in opposition so long, yet have no discernible plan, idea, or clue.
Trump has the potential to be far, far more damaging than the market thinks, & infuriating how the market (IMO) is mis-reacting. They hear "Tax cuts! Deregulation! Re-shoring!". But what I see is the potential for another GFC.
None of that particularly relevant for SHED, other than economic growth becoming increasingly hard to come by. Think that's true whether I'm right or wrong on Trumpism. |
My expectations for Labour were low, but
thus far I was wildly optimistic!.
Trump may be an issue for domestic UK,
where is the growth coming from..
Land Sec, on a brief scan appears interesting, bought a very small amount. |
Well Reeves has just taken a wedge of money off the working poor, and yet seems to think that the economy should be growing faster!
Bound to feed through to less money being spent in supermarkets.
(she's taken the tax threshold for part time jobs down to £5000 from £9,100, that's a load of people going to be short of £80 (£4k a year) a week, plus raising bus fares takes £10 a week out of poor pockets (£500 a year) and £200 a year fuel allowance. So that's £4,700 a year taken from the working poor. All that money would have been spent in the economy, as the poor have spend to keep up with essentials.
In what way it will knock onto warehouse space has yet to be seen, but reduced retail demand means less space required. |
I'd be moderately confident with Morrisons, much less so with ASDA.
SHED does look cheap IMO. Mind you, so do a lot of other things. |
EI, Morrisons 5% and Asda 2% |
Not sure I would want exposure to either Morrisons or ASDA supermarkets fwiw -
not sure what the SUPR position is in that respect.
Post budget the market appears to want UK focussed REITS lower down. Although it's wider than just this sector. |
Some good value reits around now. I bought these this week as well as Supr and asli |
Decent NED purchase I notice |
I'd agree with that, and looks as if the market does too. |
Time to change the way we value REITS.. |
I've long been a fan of SHED, the management are godo & that's not to be underrated, but with everything going on, they look good value here rather than cheap. Opportunity Cost is too big a consideration atm. |
For info :- |
Agree. Have added today @ 111.6 at which point the discount to latest nav is nearly 30%, which given SHED metrics and sector looks excessive. IC has now moved from hold to buy with a markedly more positive summation. |
Looks good value NAV £1.58, Fully covered dividend 6.7% safe yield, ERV to capture £13m or so. I own quite a few already but may add. Liked by IC so may be some ramping next few days. |
Certainly a very able team when it comes to trading properties, and they are working hard at delivering a decent dividend. If property is your thing, this looks a better bet of getting income from property, than messing with all the hassle of a 'buy to let' house rental.
EI I suspect you are correct.
"QuotedData's view: The manager has made encouraging steps in delivering on its priority to grow earnings and achieve a fully covered dividend. Capturing rental growth within its portfolio, where it attained a 21% uplift in rents on lease events in the period, is the manager's bread-and-butter. It is also undertaking an asset recycling programme, under which it acquired four properties in the six months, utilising capital released from the refinancing of a portion of its debt.
Further portfolio recycling can be expected, and post period end the company sold a 'core' asset for £7.7m at a 4.65% net initial yield and bought a vacant asset in Dunstable for £3.6m, where the manager completed a letting between exchange of completion resulting in a net initial yield of 7.1%. If this blueprint can be replicated, the positive impact on earnings will go a long way to achieving a covered dividend." |
Appreciate the views.
Looks to me as if SHED will be available under £1.10 again, but let's see. |
With BBOX you've got better growth prospects via their huge land bank plus you've got better management with a better balance sheet On an EPRA EPS basis BBOX aren't that more expensive than SHED The one thing you shouldn't judge them on is who has the higher divi yield |
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