Upland Resources Share Discussion Threads

[gunsofmarscapone] 07/1/2019 11:41

Morning my snowflake, you are out by a factor of 70. I’m not deramping, was only a minor adjustment. Still very much in and much less pessimistic now prospectus 2 is read.

Have you worked out what free speech is yet or still virtue signalling on behalf of other creeds and cultures.

[nlmbidc] 07/1/2019 11:26

Of course they are hedging their bets. They always do in these circumstances.

[tburns] 07/1/2019 11:02

Spread is ridiculous here, MM's hedging their bets

[tyler90] 07/1/2019 11:01

Yes, just seen the sell of 1056 shares. Good Luck!

[gunsofmarscapone] 07/1/2019 10:22

Tactically trimmed holdings here, instinctive. Its time for GoM to store some dry powder for the duster case to puntvest on Colter in those companies with exposure there.

Not completely on the run, if there is a discovery then brilliant.

[tyler90] 07/1/2019 09:49

Retrace only happens when the price has gotten ahead of itself. I don't think anybody can say that with Upland. Wick & Tunisia not priced in at 3.65p

[mikemike16] 07/1/2019 09:44

there might be a retrace on Wick news just in time to but in more for Sarawak news. Or, will Mr market decide he is not giving anything away here cheaply from that point on

[michaelwhight] 07/1/2019 09:41

Watching the price action on AAOG it can happen though there is a retrace today on news.

[78steve] 07/1/2019 09:31

This is going to be oscillating between 3-4p until results. no breaking 4p any time prior to results it seems as tough markets these days. GLA

[rolo7] 07/1/2019 08:25

Good start spread tighter now!

[michaelwhight] 07/1/2019 08:22

All aboard!

[tyler90] 07/1/2019 08:09

Oh that spread! My friend is in I think

[theaviator] 07/1/2019 00:43

Some Ensco photos folks.https://twitter.com/NorthPorts/status/1081943253627351042

[throwingmuses] 06/1/2019 22:55

Spot on Michael, already gone for it! Looking forward to some major action from overseas in the near future, and hopeful for Wick.

[michaelwhight] 06/1/2019 22:09

Yes I guess. If you believe the 30-40% figure which as outlined before is not a simple chance oil oil in the ground but a more complex calculation of different risks, then you may not fancy the odds. I think if you believe the odds being better than that bearing in mind SS's comments and the upside being huge and the downside being relatively small then like me you'll go for it. Even if it's a duster there are still 2 other plays in 2 other regions. Tunisia looks like an immense opportunity and Sarawak potentially even greater. But we all know this.

[throwingmuses] 06/1/2019 22:04

Yes, not arguing about it, just seeking some clarification, which is quite hard in such a complicated system! It's all a bit late yes, and will be redundant soon when we get results, so thanks for your efforts. Esp spangle for breaking it all down. Combined cos figures then may indeed have formed the 36%, if you're correct truly.

[tyler90] 06/1/2019 21:52

Folk still contemplating whether to invest in the morning or this week so that explains the clarification seeking.

[michaelwhight] 06/1/2019 21:34

It's probably a bit late in the day to be arguing the toss about COS. However I think it is significant that SS passed up the opportunity at Coulter which I believe has a 54% COS in favour of Wick.

[spangle93] 06/1/2019 20:27

Throwingmuses. The figures for each of the targets are in the CPR - as I've put on here before, each of the zones of interest, i.e. Wick Jurassic, Wick Triassic, and Wick deep comprises about 1/3 of the total in place volume.

The Jurassic is split into 2 zones, which are called secondary and primary targets on slide 15 of the AGM pres or page 29 of the environmental report. The Triassic comprises the second of the secondary targets on these charts. Wick Deep, which has 1/3 of the in place volumes according to Blackwatch, is on neither of these diagrams, and thus is treated as irrelevant on the twittergram.

Instead, on slide 15, it indicates that Wick Deep is, due to faulting and subsequent compression, a repetition of the same Jurassic and Triassic formations beneath the main trap (see slide 12). This must have a different CoS than the primary trap, for instance, because the reservoir quality is unknown in Wick Deep, whereas it is well known from the Lybster analogue for the main trap - conversely, the biggest risk of the main trap not containing hydrocarbons is, at least AIUI, trap integrity (seal and lateral faults) over time, but Wick Deep is likely to be sealed better.

The key as to whether they are independent (and therefore we have 2 bites at the cherry as you allude to) is whether there is a seal where the two red arrows meet on slide 15.

edit - TS's post above is not inconsistent with this - I just don't know what "36% overall" means in the context of discrete targets. Does it mean 36% is the best shot, or is it on a risked basis, i.e. 60%, 35% and 15% for the 3 thirds = 36% overall?

[trulyscrumptious] 06/1/2019 20:23

36% CoS came from the operator, Corallian Energy. Dr Staley of UPL quoted this to a friend of mine and I have seen the email. It is not a CoS for a specific part of the well but an overall chance of success. I did mention this at the time which wasn't more than a week or two ago.

[throwingmuses] 06/1/2019 19:10

Spangle, thank you! Was hoping you'd fly in to the rescue. Yeah I couldn't really find anything definitive on it, but an excellent summary on when the different figures were used and by whom. I know upland never quoted one, but as you say, Steve always been positive about the odds. The only way to read it, and for it to make any sense, would be to say the 36-40 cos is for the primary target, so I'm glad that's what you think. Otherwise you have to ask what they class as a success, as I mentioned in previous post. So then you have think, isn't the chance of success for the drill as a whole a fair bit better than 36-40%? We've got the first secondary target which could be sealed and commercial, the primary target which could also be, and then the deep secondary target which we should get lots of info on and as just mentioned could contain a large amount of oil.

[tyler90] 06/1/2019 19:05

I did not invest in UPL because of what I read on Twitter and I think that applies to many others too.If there has been an attempt to influence PI's by Twitter over the last few months then it has failed miserably since the share price has pulled back from its highs! Lol!There will always be speculation around O & G stocks especially around spud time...well it has been the 25 years or so that I have been investing in this sector :-)

[nlmbidc] 06/1/2019 19:01

GoM

What have you been smoking this time?