Upland Resources Share Discussion Threads

[gunsofmarscapone] 10/1/2019 13:15

Spangle , thanks for that. I was under the (false) impression that a downhole lab could provide this data.

[gunsofmarscapone] 10/1/2019 13:07

Tyler

Because I may be wrong mate, of course!

Puzzler, its freedom of speech. This a very expensive well for our company so unless something happens in our remaining portfolio over the next coupls of weeks it looks quite likely that a duster will affect the share price

All I am simply offering is that having essentially ‘punted’ on about twenty of these wells significant experience has been gathered. If I’m wrong it doesn’t matter as you have to use one system or another to calculate positions.

I do apologise if you feel offended, the CEO of Baron Oil describes their two consecutive wells as “offering the shareholders two throws of the dice”, or words to that effect.

[soulsauce] 10/1/2019 13:07

Cheers Spangle clears that up nicely.

[spangle93] 10/1/2019 12:58

GoM, Souls - you can't get permeability solely from logs. You either need core to do lab tests, or to do a flow test over each interval individually, or ideally both. From the EIS, they plan neither.

My interpretation of actions is that they'd drill the first well (this one) as cheaply as possible, to get a yes/no answer for the zones of interest. Why spend money on renting core or test equipment in advance, if it turns out there's nothing there?

After that, they'll have a suite of logs, and a very good analogue in the next postcode called Lybster, from which they can make reasonably confident assumptions about flow rate, i.e. they'd get the critical relationship between Wick log and wick potential flow rate from Lybster log versus actual flowrate.

In the case of any success, if any big question marks remain over a possible commmercial development, then they'd consider an appraisal to address that uncertainty. The appraisal well would then include core and test.

But it's a balance, because the cost and time of a more expensive appraisal well eats into NPV.

[michaelwhight] 10/1/2019 12:39

That sticker was affixed to my wife's car lol! Not long to wait now folks.

[puzzler2] 10/1/2019 11:55

Read what I said GoM. I didn't state that as a fact - I said that some had said... This board used to be a forum for non-confrontational discussion before you turned up.

[tyler90] 10/1/2019 11:48

Lol!If you are so sure that it will be a duster then why hold on to 40%...just sell the lot!Lunch...are you actually employed by somebody?

[gunsofmarscapone] 10/1/2019 11:36

Puzzler

‘the longer with no news, the more likely a discovery’.

Hahahahahahahaha.

Time for lunch.

[gunsofmarscapone] 10/1/2019 11:35

I agree nim, unless a delay Oil Rig FM nearly always spills the beans. All it takes is one encoded txt from a bent oilie. All I can do is take a punt based on timings, price action and the GCOS. Cash position and Mcaps are very useful data as well.

Serves me well enough.

[puzzler2] 10/1/2019 11:33

There is no consensus on this board that a discovery has occurred. Some have simply said that the longer with no news, the more likely a discovery, as data is analysed before announcement, rather than quickly announcing a P & A. GoM is jumping to conclusions.

[nlmbidc] 10/1/2019 11:30

Nothing to suggest that it has.

[gunsofmarscapone] 10/1/2019 11:26

So, why the consensus that a discovery has occurred?

[soulsauce] 10/1/2019 11:05

I think it one for Spangle but one of the points of flow testing is to ensure the pressure does not drop off quickly.

No point having a good pressure for just a short while. It needs to prove it can flow over time with minimal drop in pressure to be proved commercial surely.

The best here will be to surmise it may be commercial and worth an appraisal well having proved the necessary ingredients are there with this well?

[throwingmuses] 10/1/2019 11:00

As sure as any amateur can be soul. Why drill the well if you can't determine that, or why not spend more and flow test it if you think there's any chance you might have to do that? As far as I know they can infer flow rate from pressure readings in the reservoirs, maybe somebody else could clarify

[gunsofmarscapone] 10/1/2019 10:49

Soul, mostly if I explain my approach it just makes people angry. Remember the football hype last year? Had a bit of fun yelling ‘Vive La France’ at white vans with George Cross flags. They went mental! Quoting Bayes inferences on here would provoke a lot of banana throwing.

I can’t disprove a discovery but confident enough to manage my risk to a rational level.

What is certain though is that those with plenty of money and a lot more bottle than GoM will make a ton more £££; than me in the event of a discovery. I can live with that.

[soulsauce] 10/1/2019 10:36

That is a strange conclusion to come to GoM. I would have thought if nothing had been found a RNS would have been given by now. I don't see at this stage how you can form that conclusion.

[gunsofmarscapone] 10/1/2019 10:26

The theorerical RNS would include a net pay interval(s), porosity (may come later), permeability in milli Darcies (dyor), fluid type and depending in the downhole lab g.o.r. reservoir rock type (I think).

An estimated flow rate is inferrable from the above data.

I think that a find is unlikely now, holding baseline position only, circa 150k shares.

[soulsauce] 10/1/2019 10:25

throwingmuses 10 Jan '19 - 10:08 - 7001 of 7003

Correct ride, not flow tested, but doesn't need to be to determine if it's commercial.

Are you sure about that?

[soulsauce] 10/1/2019 10:19

I am wondering, without flow testing, how the final RNS will be worded if successful as that will determine the kind of uplift in the share price we get from here.

Without flow testing we are unlikely to get the full benefit anyway.

[gunsofmarscapone] 10/1/2019 10:15

Tyler

If that ‘worst case flow rate’ for Wick is from the EIS then you have inverted your logic. If it is from the EIS then they have modelled a ‘worst case’ in terms of the most catastrophic spill rate calculated.

I suspect that they would use the 95th centile but may be higher, not worth the effort to check.

It is not ‘the worst case’ ie your well will produce in excess of that! I am trying to assist but will refrain from quoting Churchill, Lenin, Orwell etc.

[throwingmuses] 10/1/2019 10:08

Correct ride, not flow tested, but doesn't need to be to determine if it's commercial. It'll firm up quantities and pressure test I believe. Much cheaper this way, a snip at just over 2 mil, as gom keeps pointing out.

[throwingmuses] 10/1/2019 10:05

It's not new info Steve! Been out there a long time, and yes I agree the price should be higher!

[78steve] 10/1/2019 10:00

If that were true the price would've gone crazy right now

[throwingmuses] 10/1/2019 09:48

If the estimated quantities were correct, and it's sealed, yes. 40% to upland and transformational isn't strong enough a word! This is lower end estimates too, loads of info on corralian and upland website's.

[ride daice] 10/1/2019 09:45

The well will not be flow tested.