Upland Resources Share Discussion Threads

[sull75] 31/12/2018 13:40

Podcast interview :https://www.voxmarkets.co.uk/articles/dr-steve-staley-ceo-of-upland-resources-upl-discusses-the-cpr-their-saouaf-licence-0dbc98a/

[gunsofmarscapone] 31/12/2018 13:31

Entirely agree Spangle, it is a transactional concept which ensures activity on the licence to the required rate. Just when will the bond transaction occur though as it is a huge payment in comparison to the current cash position.

[nlmbidc] 31/12/2018 13:30

Nothing wrong with the RNS release timing. There will be plenty of paper talk on Wednesday to ensure Joe public is aware of the value of Saouaf and the current drilling of Wick.

This BB will not be worth reading come Wednesday.

[spangle93] 31/12/2018 13:24

Hi GoM - didn't seem an unreasonable request to me. If you're going to licence the development of your country's resources and potential future income, you'd need some assurance that the company was prepared to spend the money to complete the commitments

[gunsofmarscapone] 31/12/2018 13:06

Spangle I think the priority is the acquisition of money, it would be completely anti-fiduciary to standby for a Wick duster (the most probable outcome) then fundraise after using the loan note facility. On the previous rns did anyone work out when the £800K is due as the Tunisian government bond?

Grossly diluting the shareholders in the event of Wick fail would rightly cause an outrage amongst you all!

[spangle93] 31/12/2018 12:59

A bit of Hogmanay pedantry.

Blackwatch has been a bit sloppy. If these are genuinely P90 and P10, you can't add the numbers statistically to get a total P90 or P10. It doesn't make sense - the likelihood of every prospect or lead being worst case is nil.

The alternative is if they are not P90 and P10 and instead they are low case and high case, which makes more sense given the limited information. In that situation it would OK to add.

They also write "However significant uncertainty in the size, shape and gross rock volume for all leads and prospects arises from the limited data currently available"

The mean is the safest number on which to focus.


The biggest uncertainty, which they don't describe, is how they come up with prospective resources, rather than in-place volumes. "PROSPECTIVE RESOURCES are those quantities of petroleum estimated, as of a given date, to be potentially recoverable from undiscovered accumulations by application of future development
projects." On what do they base a recovery factor?

[soulsauce] 31/12/2018 12:59

Thanks for the clarification chaps.

[spangle93] 31/12/2018 12:51

Souls - Divide BCF by 5.8 for MMBOE. Though gas BOE is a not really equivalent to oil.

It would have been nice if they'd ranked the prospective resources by leads, prospects, and discoveries, cos there is increasingly de-risking with each. But we can do that manually. The DK discovery itself totals around 180 bcf mean, which is well worth having.

[gunsofmarscapone] 31/12/2018 12:50

Soulsauce just use 165MMboe for 1Tcf so 330 MMboe for your 2 TCF. Very gash estimates though as gas is marketed on its energy content.

Looks good, one of those roulette type E and P’s, Wick is such a massive potential game changer. If it comes in the company and investors will be in an absolutely awesome position. Masses of money to invest in Tunisia and Sarawak with minimal dilution.

[ride daice] 31/12/2018 12:48

Please see above. Got my sums wrong.

The 1.961 TCF of gas equates to 338 Million barrels of oil. Add to that the 42 million barrels of estimated oil itself and the total comes to 380 million BOE.

[soulsauce] 31/12/2018 12:47

Thanks Ride.

Yes robbie it is very odd. May be it has been done for a reason as Sull alludes to. Let's hope so.

[78steve] 31/12/2018 12:45

Agree 4p will be history in short order. Who knows where it'll end up once 4p breaks. dyor

[ride daice] 31/12/2018 12:44

Soulsauce,

I think 2 TCF is around 345 Million BOE.

[gunsofmarscapone] 31/12/2018 12:43

VERY POSITIVE!

The larger gas appraisals and prospects indicate a commercial justification for feed into the Trans Mediterranean pipeline. Just need to fundraise (not necessarily a negative). To be fair Upl are timing the news flow in an organised manned. I remain 80% certain about the level of equity based funding required imminently...

A VERY GOOD RNS INDEED.

[robbiekeane] 31/12/2018 12:41

Agree soulsauce - a great RNS but what a strange time to release it, slightly amateurish imho.

[ileeman] 31/12/2018 12:39

I take it Saouaf is not drilling until 2020?

[tburns] 31/12/2018 12:37

Hear, hear, this will break 4p by Friday. Two company makers in play at the same time and Wick due to complete drilling in less than 3 weeks. This could easily be double figs in Feb, amazing risk / reward opportunity here. Don't watch uplift this go by, another Cove in the making and look what happened to that under the good Dr S.

[sull75] 31/12/2018 12:32

Nice tick up at the close! Looking good for Wednesday!

[78steve] 31/12/2018 12:28

It should keep rising slowly once market wakes up and news sinks in plus Wick drilling happening at present. Quite a few things going on to give 2019 a cracking start for this. dyor

[sull75] 31/12/2018 12:28

Could be this was released now so the CPR is released on Wednesday :)Either way it's going to be a very happy new year!

[ileeman] 31/12/2018 12:26

When do they plan to drill Saouaf licence?

[sja123] 31/12/2018 12:23

Everybody sleeping.....CPR out.....nearly 2 TCF estimated within Saouf....plus oil...

[kemche] 31/12/2018 05:30

Gom schooled by michael!

[michaelwhight] 31/12/2018 02:14

GoM if you Google my name you will see that this is a subject I know rather a lot about. If you are genuinely interested in knowing more about musical structure can I recommend Schenkerian analysis to you? Wrt UPL most have taken their positions and are happy with their risk I would imagine. Eyes wide open here.