Up Global Sourcing Share Discussion Threads

[mister md] 12/2/2018 12:22

not usually a fan of averaging down, but took a few at 34p

just a few months ago the Chairman was buying at 93.25p.

[tel11] 12/2/2018 12:03

heading towards 20p ? :-(

[kirk 6] 12/2/2018 11:56

I would have thought the insiders have already dumped and dumped hence the drop from over £2 to 35p LOL

[elsa7878] 12/2/2018 11:50

I think what you will find is that the institutional shareholders will dump it and run. It is too small cap now and for the likes of Blackrock does not sit well in their portfolios. Consequently there will be 10 million from them and upto 30 million from all non insider institutional investors that could be sold.
Once those shareholders are cleared, like Luceco the other week, the share price will bounce.... just a case of from where.
If you believe the H2 forecasts and 2019 then EBITDA of 6-7 million in 2018 - is fairly clean. Perhaps 400k in finance costs, a bit of depreciation on the Oldham warehouse. Sure will be no share option awards. Net debt is down £1.8 million despite paying the dividend so clearly cash generative.
£30 million does not seem expensive. Wait for the dump and then buy for the bounce.

[tel11] 12/2/2018 11:32

34.65-34.69 ETC are all buys

[croasdalelfc] 12/2/2018 10:59

Totally agree except it's on the main market not AIM :))

[pre] 12/2/2018 10:56

today's news - 2019 looking much brighter. Still committed to pay a healthy dividend (yield looks very good indeed) and Germany market growing fast....possible bid target now? dyor etc

[croasdalelfc] 12/2/2018 10:51

Outlook is terrible , you are reading with blinkers on !The Board's previous expectation was for revenue growth in H2 2018, now we expect no growth or worse , see below:However, while the Group is pleased with the strength of its pipeline of new business opportunities blah blah!! many of the resulting orders are now falling in FY 2019!rather than H2 2018. So expect lower revenues in H2 this year...This is due to specific circumstances that are particular to each customer, rather than any one underlying trend , blah blah In addition, retailer sentiment with regard to placing general merchandise orders in the short-term!!! has not improved to the extent that the Board previously expected. So expect lower revenues short term as well as medium term.Furthermore, the continuing lower volumes available to non-food suppliers, along with retailers' desire to minimise increases in retail prices, has created an even more competitive environment than normal, so expect a squeeze on margins from retailers and the strength of the Chinese yuan

[topvest] 12/2/2018 10:42

If you look at their outlook they are getting good orders for this Autumn. Numerous areas for encouragement and expect them to hit £100m+ next year.

[kirk 6] 12/2/2018 10:42

Eastboourne - you have called this right mate and respect for that but I do think its time to move on now unless you are short.

[eastbourne1982] 12/2/2018 10:41

What happens if a bad year turns into two bad years, I don't see the retail environment getting much better in the short term, why has this company messed up so badly during the last year when many others have not collapsed in such a way. Also this business is supposed to be in the market of low cost goods, shouldn't they be doing a lot better than they are in such market conditions.

[topvest] 12/2/2018 10:37

It's now trading at less than a fifth of what it was last year. Nothing has really changed apart from a more difficult year. Incredibly volatile. Made a bit of a mistake jumping in too early this morning as could have bought 5p cheaper if I'd waited. Absolute bargain at 35p. Need to have a contrarian mind to buy as lots throwing in the towel. This is not a distessed company. It's just having a bad year.

[eastbourne1982] 12/2/2018 10:37

Also ebitda means sod all. It's trotted out when a business is doing very badly, what is the genuine profit after tax going to be here, 1 million, 2 million, 3 million ??

At a market cap of 30 million these still aren't ridiculously undervalued.

[eastbourne1982] 12/2/2018 10:35

massimoj,

Given the way this has gone since listing I'm not sure honesty or integrity are things I would claim this founder has, he has well and truly shafted those shareholders who backed this company a year ago.

[darola] 12/2/2018 10:27

MC of >£30m. Might be prime for a takeover....

[massimoj] 12/2/2018 10:26

I agree Topvest.

This is a quality founder run company which, contrary to much that has been said below, has been honest about the short term difficulties they are experiencing. Long term they are confident in the potential of the business (as am I).

In any event, today's irrational selling has pushed the valuation down to the point where you don't need to be confident in further growth: at 6m EBITDA (with v little D&A to boot) this valuation presents enormous upside potential even without growth. If offered the opportunity to earn a cash yield of 18%+ in a non-traded opportunity I am sure everyone on here would bite my hand off. Don't let the fact that there are continous market quotations distract you from the merits of the underlying business!

[topvest] 12/2/2018 10:14

Think they have a reasonable forward view on sales. £85-90m turnover is fine. Was £79m in 2016 so just need to see the bigger picture. They have given a tight range for expected EBITDA which is very good reporting versus many companies. Surprised its gone down so far today, as hardly a disastrous profit warning. Basically, it looks like 2016/17 was a great year. 2017/18 a poor year and 2018/19 things are looking very much more positive. Company still profitable and Progress brand looks a nice addition. I'm happy to wait it out but maybe should have added at a better price than 41p today. Don't top up more than once on a losing share so won't be buying anymore until things start to improve. Very good entry point for fresh investors though in my view. Much better to buy after the profit warning than before!

It will be interesting to see if we get any director buys today.

[fillipe] 12/2/2018 09:58

bid/ask much improved in last minutes ...totals 115k v 185k as I type.

f

[fillipe] 12/2/2018 09:54

Firming just a touch - bid qty higher also RSI strengthening, with slightly less showing on the ask.

Early days, but maybe starting to come off the bottom after a 41%+ fall.

f

[croasdalelfc] 12/2/2018 09:46

Last year H2 sales were 42m , and the RNS says the BOD expected second half growth . Then they say , however and in addition and furthermore, 3 negative paragraphs relating to second half revenues.Conclusion is H2 contraction , let's say 35m gives FY revenue of £84m max.I can see another profits warning coming in July . They have set the tone for disappointment. It's uninvestable until the next trading update at least

[eastbourne1982] 12/2/2018 09:40

This company keeps banging on about the tough retail environment, many other companies have not seen their sales collapse, look at BME as an example.

This company is totally untrustworthy, as a result the share price deserves to be crushed, I do feel for some shareholders though who were clearly sold down the river.

[pre] 12/2/2018 09:26

100k buyer appears....interesting

[eastbourne1982] 12/2/2018 09:22

topvest,

Fair play for posting when the share price is tanking.

Like you I do look to buy after profit warnings / issues hammer the share price.

The problem here is that I don't trust the management one bit, reminds me a bit of ENTU.

Any thoughts on something like TATE.