United Oil & Gas Share Discussion Threads

[the chairman elect] 04/4/2023 08:05

Stale bears getting out more like!

[soulsauce] 04/4/2023 08:04

Thanks 9tintin, I don't blame you. All the best.

[gregpeck7] 04/4/2023 08:02

Stale bulls getting out . Great.

[the chairman elect] 04/4/2023 07:55

P&Ds are for the likes of this site as BODs would go to jail for that type of activity but then any quality poster would already know that! What ever you think of the BODs it does potentially look as though the company have turned the corner. Perhaps there might even be bigger news to follow?!?!?

[kibes] 04/4/2023 07:37

Price is up a surprising amount, was there something good in the RNS that wasn't known already? 'Extensive resources', yes big deal.

[spangle93] 04/4/2023 07:33

Myn0k - it's only extensive resources in terms of the Egypt licence

ASD-2 came onstream a year ago, at a constrained rate of 2100 bopd, which is more than half the entire licence production (3800 bopd) in 1Q 23. It's averaged 1080 bopd over the first year, which is on the top side for these wells, but consequently it must be somewhere around 650 bopd now.

Each field is the oilfield equivalent of sticking a pin into a balloon - it comes gushing out at the start, and then declines PDQ, somewhat similar to a shale gas well in the US but for different reasons.

According to the reserves report dated end 2021, ASD contained 1.2 MMbbl estimated oil recovery (gross)

The 2P total "extensive resources" in the licence has remained around 3 MMbbl since the transformational purchase. For scale, the 2P resources in all the fields in the licence are about half that of Maria. If successful, the drilling campaign maintains production and replaces these reserves. Two dud wells in 2022 mean that they are unlikely to achieve that when they report final results.

[parob] 04/4/2023 07:25

26/1/23 RNS-- 1H 2023 production guidance from Abu Sennan is 700-900 bopd net. Todays RNS:United's net oil production from Abu Sennan for Q1 2023 averaged 841 bopd. The exit rate for the quarter was 1,275 bopd oil and 170 boepd gas (1,445 boepd net) which incorporates the material contribution from the ASH-8 well, which has continued to flow at a stable rate with no water-cut since it came onstream on the 16 March 2023.

[myn0k] 04/4/2023 06:56

Does anyone else find it suspicious that this RNS comes out a day after OPEC released their statement?"we believe contains extensive resources"Some people believe in an old man in the sky, but doesn't make it real...Call me a skeptic but I sense a pump and dump. Just seaking from the last 3.5 years of holding this tyre kicking lifestyle pos

[the chairman elect] 04/4/2023 06:50

United Chief Executive Officer, Brian Larkin commented:

"We are happy to report that the next well in our 2023 drilling campaign has spud at ASD-3, in an area of the field we believe contains extensive unrecovered resources. We are excited by the potential that this well is planned to test and the follow-on development drilling targets it could unlock in a success case. It is also really pleasing to see the continued strong production performance from the ASH-8 well, which supports our view that there is significant long term value remaining in the Abu Sennan licence".

[gregpeck7] 04/4/2023 06:43

Stunning RNS

[gregpeck7] 02/4/2023 21:09

Oil prices going to explode in 50 mins.

[quietlife] 30/3/2023 20:42

Level 3 support is 0.8p on the TA side so may be interested to buy a few when it gets there

[gregpeck7] 28/3/2023 09:10

Nice one. Search #UOG on Twitter I've sent out the telegram group link today.

[likeawalrus] 28/3/2023 08:03

taken a small punt this morning at just under 1.15p - there seems to be some good short-term upside, time will tell

[thirdtimelucky1] 23/3/2023 10:26

Lol

Putting my money down that the new asset with production and plenty of exploration will be in ALGERIA !!!

Plenty of reasons why but must get back to work….. take a look how attractive Algeria is
and they said it most likely be MENA region

[spangle93] 22/3/2023 23:24

Thirdtimelucky - ref your 6490

I think you should revisit 6478 and 6479, and then contemplate your contribution to this bulletin board.



TCE ref 6491 - I think you are correct. However it would have to be with that ranking - neither a lender nor a borrower would want debt funding to pay for an exploration asset without the production revenue to cover repayments.

[gregpeck7] 22/3/2023 19:42

Keep holding for gold. The rerate will come and oil heading north nicely. 80 usd a barrel on that ash well will do very nicely.

[thirdtimelucky1] 22/3/2023 16:51

Any opinion on my last post chairman 🤔

[the chairman elect] 22/3/2023 14:05

Additionally Spangle93 - my understanding is that the BP debt facility can be used again for any new O&G income producing assets with exploration upside potential....

[thirdtimelucky1] 22/3/2023 10:17

“ Greg - when you have a share price graph like that, I don't need to come up with ways to be downbeat.“

Spangles just replied with that…. BUT it was Soulsauce who Greg said that to ???

So Why doe’s Spangles reply to it saying “I don’t need to …..???????

I have an idea 😂😂😂

[the chairman elect] 22/3/2023 08:55

What they HAVE done, helped by the oil price last year, is generated enough cash to pay back the BP debt. Looking forward, with no debt repayments, and with (thus far) a small planned program in Egypt (2 new wells, 8 workovers) we should start to build a cash pile which could be used to make an acquisition.



Thanks for your most recent post Spangle93 and an interesting paragraph above which is very much in line with my thinking.

[gregpeck7] 22/3/2023 08:37

Ps sorry if that's formatted poorly I'm on the mobile

[gregpeck7] 22/3/2023 08:36

Spangle. All companies have challenges. I don't disagree they are present here but rather than focus on the challenges I look at the mkt cap. Look what you get and then decide to invest - or not. I simply don't see a bear case at this price. I think the downsides become a valid discussion point when this is over 20mBut I do approximate your insight. For me though buying this at 8m mkt cap is as close to a no brainer as I can find.

[spangle93] 22/3/2023 08:34

Greg - when you have a share price graph like that, I don't need to come up with ways to be downbeat.

I thought the well result was excellent, to be fair, especially after ASH-4 came onstream at significantly lower rates than other wells in the field, or as trailed.

The challenge is that these are small pockets of oil, which are low risk (apart from the relatively big one ASW, unfortunately), but in which rates decline rapidly.

Field production guidance for this year is lower than when we performed the miraculously transformational deal. Tennyson in their broker note in October was forecasting 1575 boe/day net (actually they wrote 1,575 Kboed, in which case the company would be greatly undervalued!!). They had the rates above 900 boe/d until into 2025.

The thing to watch in April will be reserves. At the time of the deal they noted
"Transformational acquisition will deliver over 1,100 boepd net low-cost production with 2.64mmboe net 2P". Tennyson assigned a value of $8.33/boe reserves in the ground, which seems generous given the payback mechanism, but even then (and with a higher oil price expectation) they only valued Egypt production at 2.8p/share.

In April 2021, they had 3.69 MMboe reserves

In April 2022, the figure was 3.0 MMboe, i.e. they found less than they produced

In April 2023 - well, let's see. My money is on another reduction, because they produced a net 0.48 MMboe, but of the 5 wells they drilled last year, 2 were dusters and Ash-4 was below plan.

Declining production and falling reserves doesn't fit too well with the banner on their presentations "United Oil & Gas - Focused on Growth" .

Neither does share buybacks, which is the stupidest idea yet for a growth company

What they HAVE done, helped by the oil price last year, is generated enough cash to pay back the BP debt. Looking forward, with no debt repayments, and with (thus far) a small planned program in Egypt (2 new wells, 8 workovers) we should start to build a cash pile which could be used to make an acquisition.

But OMG, let's hope it's not a transformational one. ;-)