Ultimate Products Share Discussion Threads

[epo001] 12/11/2024 15:05

Can Trump really be an issue here? There isn't much (any?) US trade for ULTP and US tariffs could result in price decreases across the rest of the world just to keep stuff moving. The yield is good and if they hold the divi then this has to be a buying opportunity.

[dr biotech] 12/11/2024 12:52

Pretty much a two year low. Guess having things made in china is not the place to be if there is going to be a trade war, although I think their sales in the US aren't that significant. This one is liable to jumpy price movements too.

[toffeeman] 12/11/2024 02:20

Chart seems to concur!

[toffeeman] 05/11/2024 00:46

I posted this on the wrong thread after watching the presentation:

Crikey what a downbeat outlook and presentation - even Europe which they think is the main opportunity.

[edmonda] 04/11/2024 15:53

Investor Presentation video recording (31 October 2024 webinar)

Andrew Gossage (CEO) & Chris Dent (CFO) of Ultimate Products plc hosted an Investor Presentation following the release of their results for the financial year to 31st July 2024.

They discussed their ambitions for European growth enhanced by their Paris showroom, countered by the the abating challenges of freight costs and UK consumer demand. Management provided a detailed run-though of financial performance figures, and answered a range of questions submitted by viewers.

The full video recording is available to watch, divided into chapters as below:
0:00:03 Introduction to Ultimate Products
0:07:50 Highlights of 2024
0:09:54 Products, Price, Brands, Capability
0:17:12 The opportunity in Europe
0:21:43 Financial Review
0:34:22 Summary & Outlook
0:40:43 Questions & Answers

Link to video recording:

[dr biotech] 29/10/2024 14:24

In track for 15p EPS next year, that would be decent and should lead to a modest re rating. Seems like a fairly solid company, nice that they actually say what the consensus forecast is too

[edmonda] 29/10/2024 07:25

"European growth prospects rise in importance"

Ultimate Products released FY2024 results which confirmed the company’s August trading statement at the sales, EBITDA pre-tax profits and EPS levels.

Detailed figures for sales by geographic region, brand, distribution channel and product category were published. Importantly, European sales advanced by 7%, moving to 34% of group sales from 30% in FY2023 as the company made significant advances with French and German discounters. This offset the negative impact of overstocking in the latter’s supermarket channels.

ULTP’s sales outlook for FY2025 is a return to growth. First, we expect a home market rebound as the company no longer faces the air fryers comparison issue. Second, there are clear signs that the Salter re-brand is working well and there will probably be some early benefits from a similar uplift for Beldray. Third, Europe should see further advances arising from the Paris showroom’s stronger sales into European discounters and more normal German supermarkets trading. However, the pattern of order flows suggests growth will pivot significantly towards the second half of the year.

We highlight UPs superior yield and attractive FY2025 0.8x EV/sales ratio. We continue to highlight potential for a material re-rating of the shares, driven partly by a return to positive sales momentum this year. We retain our 200p/share Fair Value.

Link to new research report:

[deanowls] 03/9/2024 07:14

Great, can I sell you some Vimto and would you like a kettle to boil it in, heres Jose who can arrange the finance of the deal. 😂

[edmonda] 03/9/2024 06:49

"New Board appointments support growth potential"

Strong relations with UK retailers and the potential to build on European expansion are important components of the value proposition and growth case for Ultimate Products plc.

The owner of the Beldray and Salter brands today announced two important Board appointments that are consistent with those objectives. As a brand manager with clearly prioritised distribution channels, we retain our 200p Fair Value for UP’s shares.

UP is to appoint two new Non-Executive Directors, both of which have pertinent experience and strong track records, to its Board with effect from 28th October this year. Andrew Milne, the current CEO of diversified and international soft drinks group Nichols plc, and José Carlos González-Hurtado, who holds Senior Advisor roles at global private equity firm Advent International and Roland Berger, an international management consultancy. We view these appointments positively.

Today’s announcement is consistent with UP’s growth strategy, which is driven by a twin commitment to its brands and distribution channels.

We reiterate the case for a 200p fair value, at which the company’s FY2025 EV/EBITDA would be 8.9x and its prospective P/E ratio an undemanding 13.8x.

Link to note:

[edmonda] 14/8/2024 06:48

UP says sales + EBITDA are in line with market expectations, with cautious optimism for the future. Versus peer consumer goods companies Equity Dev still think their rating is too low and keep a 200p Fair Value/share.

Read, hear summary of new ED research note below:

[deanowls] 13/6/2024 08:02

16.4 PE has it digitized the mops?

[edmonda] 13/6/2024 07:55

Beldray re-brand – Ultimate Products has “got this!”

New research note:

Ultimate Products hosted a Capital Markets presentation at the Exclusively Housewares Exhibition in London on Tuesday this week, where the company showcased its re-brand for Beldray®, having engaged in a similar process for Salter at the same event in 2023. Regarding trading, despite some sales and profit disruption so far in FY2024, we continue to expect above trend organic growth in FY2025. We retain our 200p fair value for the shares.

UP’s Brand Director Tracy Carroll presented key features of the Beldray (est 1872) re-brand. The overarching message was one of “collaboration” between UP and the product user with the simple tagline – “between us we’ve got this.” The company not only looks to have beautiful, affordable products for every home but also to inject humour into the experience of household chores such as laundry and cleaning. The Beldray – be beldray® - re-brand appears well positioned to achieve this.

As a company which owns increasingly powerful consumer brands, UP’s valuation relative to peers continues to look attractive. The company’s yield is above its peers and the prospect of ongoing share buybacks should also be supportive, in our view. We retain our view that fair value for the shares is 200p and base this on 1.2x EV/sales,10.2 EV/EBITDA and a 16.4x P/E. Moreover, the dividend yield at 3.1% would be superior to peers even with a 200p share price.

[edmonda] 15/5/2024 13:20

Q3 Trading Update - Investor presentation video

Ultimate Products hosted an Investor Presentation for retail investors following the company's recent Trading Update for the period from 1 Feb to 30 Apr 2024.

Andrew Gossage (CEO) highlighted how trading has been impacted by a slowdown in near-term sales from landed stocks, typically at higher gross margins, reflecting the broader slowdown seen in retail sales to consumers. Updated expectations for FY24 have now been communicated, but management outlined reasons for confidence in the Group's prospects for FY25.

There was also a detailed Q&A session with numerous questions having been submitted by viewers.

Link to video:

[mpage] 11/5/2024 14:31

@Gnomes3: That's right, timing is an advantage to the major (and minor)long-term shareholders assuming it is not being done simply to cancel out new shares issued to staff. As for prospective buyers on the open market, the buyback prog will reduce liquidity and therefore widen dealing spreads. If management has its eye on a trade sale or taking Ultimate private,(one day) then this is not a material consideration.

FWIW, I added to my position around 8:30am on the day of the announcement as, at the time, the drop (to 135p)seemed overdone for a 7% y-o-y drop in revs to Q3.Only time will tell if this was a good call or not.

That said, we have to take the 7% fall in y-o-y revs on trust because I can't find any figs for Q3 revenues last year. Besides sales, revenues can also be boosted by increasing prices - something that was not done in FY23 but might happen in Q4. Management need to hit EBITDA of £20m to get a portion of their bonus.

[gnome3] 11/5/2024 00:51

I don't really see how the timing of the buy-back announcement disadvantages shareholders. If they'd started the buy-backs before the profit warning, likely more people would have been drawn into the stock on the back of increased momentum and would be sitting on a short term loss. Having the buy-back funds available now, gives some support to the share price and provides liquidity to those that now want to exit.

[mpage] 10/5/2024 16:03

The deterioration in just four weeks is concerning - if genuinely unexpected. To be even handed, Spring in the UK was very wet and sales volumes generally have been weak. However, given that just three people hold much of the equity, it does smack of a cunning plan - or at least an attempt to make lemonade when given lemons. We can be sure that today's announcement was definitely timed to coincide with the buyback, not least because they would have had to sounded out Equity Development to ensure there was a suitable slot available at short notice to calm the horses.

Today's volume was around 2.146m shares trades, perhaps worth c. £3m. That's 3x the expected amount that ULTP expected to spend (per quarter) on the buybacks. The first £1m trance runs to 31 July which is the financial year end.

Keep an eye on this management team.

First buyback rns may well be out by Monday.

[deanowls] 10/5/2024 13:07

It’s the European opportunity that I want to know about. Uk will move up and down but the opportunity lies elsewhere.

[shanklin] 10/5/2024 12:46

In operational terms, IMHO ULTP are very strong. They need to be given the curve balls that are a feature of their operating environment.

[dr biotech] 10/5/2024 12:37

I can’t help but think the two are related. Get the bad news out before they waste 20% of the buyback. I’ll see what they have to say next week.

I want to hear

1] when were they aware of poor trading in Q3 (and determined it would continue into Q4)
2] how confident are they 25 will be better?


I’ve done ok with these and they are one of my larger holdings. Any sort of warning tends to last with a lower rating for some time.

[shanklin] 10/5/2024 12:24

Jonals

Companies should be updating the market when they conclude that the forecasts in the market need revision. ULTP did this last July when their net debt expectations improved considerably from their previous expectations.

I appreciate ULTP don’t usually provide a Q3 TS. But they have chosen to do so this year. It seems to me that they will probably have known Q3 was poor at the time of the H1 results (2 months and one week into Q3) but chose to keep them a secret.

Today they have dumped them into the market, extrapolating Q4 to be similarly poor. No surprise perhaps that they are initiating their share buyback today, on the day when they have given their share price a good kicking.

[fegger] 10/5/2024 10:45

Nothing wrong with a good profit (always sell on profit warnings)so have sold out and will potentially buy back in when situation clearer. Not delighted to have a different picture in early April and one month later a profit warning.

[jonals] 10/5/2024 10:10

Shanklin, that's a touch harsh. They don't give quarterly updates, so this could be an early H2 update. Not sure it's a false market.

[tsmith2] 10/5/2024 09:33

good opportunity to take a position?