Uk Commercial Property R... Share Discussion Threads

[nickrl] 10/2/2024 13:28

@drBiotech they must Phoenix on board otherwise its futile to even proceed.

[skyship] 10/2/2024 11:18

UKCM would be a bizarre match for BBOX; but the share price here has been surprisingly strong recently - someone been buying for sure.

BBOX would of course be using its own very strong equity, trading on a mere 12.3% discount and 4.4% yield. However, likely to do a CREI and collapse sharpish on the news.

EBOX would have been a better fit; though of course a pretty major departure into Euroland.

Will it instigate a sector rally; or are those left just too small to be of interest?

[dr biotech] 10/2/2024 10:38

Didn't mention that in their investor meet yesterday (obviously they couldn't). Think it will be down to whether Phoenix being happy or not with the terms.

[george stobbart] 10/2/2024 08:19

UKCM to merge with BBOX (another abrdn managed REIT) according to React.

Announcement 7am on Monday

[essentialinvestor] 09/2/2024 12:59

Yes, as mentioned previously it's the low LTV the market likes, particularly given the rise in longer term rates YTD.

The higher geared REITS 'should' reverse YTD underperformance when rates start falling.

[giltedge1] 09/2/2024 09:27

Nice recovery here, market likes low gearing 15%, strong cash flow & good industrial properties. No mention of problems Ocado lease expiry at least in good area SE so can sell OK. Also shortage of modern mid priced city centre hotels so can flog Leeds Hotel as well.

[skyship] 08/2/2024 08:30

Fail to comprehend the share price strength here. Looking way over-valued versus their peers

Take just two:

# UKCM - Disc @ 18.8% (Sep'23 - so likely lower); Yield @ 5.2%

# EBOX - Disc @ 45% (Sep'23 - so likely lower); Yield @ 9.0%

# SREI - Disc @ 27% (Sep'23 - so likely lower); Yield @ 7.6%

[spectoacc] 08/2/2024 06:55

More importantly, finally a revenue projection/expected yield on the Leeds hotel.

Anyone reading this BB will know how long I've been bearish on UKCM, in particular the Leeds hotel punt made at exactly the wrong moment, and the gearing failures in both directions. They had to sell that Wimbledon Amazon warehouse (albeit at a fantastic price) as a result.

They failed to answer direct questions I put to them, because frankly why should they - Phoenix rules the roost.

But c.7.25% is their expected yield on cost. That no doubt seemed good when abrdn were telling them rates were heading back to 2.5%.

[nickrl] 07/2/2024 23:46

No mention of Picton overtures in the NAV update but certainly done them no harm holding up very well. Hotel still on target for Q3.

[skyship] 05/2/2024 14:53

Doesn't sound a likely PHNX move!

[nickrl] 26/11/2023 22:39

didnt harm the share price though

[skyship] 23/11/2023 08:28

Dead in the water from the very beginning!

[mindthestash] 21/11/2023 09:43

Thanks Sp
good news - esp - 'on the terms proposed' - hope they've been told to find some money
- if they want to make an offer for 70+p thats different

[spectoacc] 21/11/2023 07:07

Lol:

"UKCM has been informed by its largest shareholder that it does not support the Possible Merger on the terms proposed."

"Picton is considering the feedback that it has received from shareholders in Picton and UKCM, following the announcements on 8 November. A further announcement will be made in due course."

[mindthestash] 13/11/2023 10:55

Bigger doesnt mean better. Sceptical of synergies alluded to; = they havent put their mane to anything accountable and probably wont - cant see anything in this (yet) for me unless they tweak strategy and agree to go for more industrial.
I'll hang around and see what more if anything is said by either party.

MLI went for a nice premium as it was 'bitesized'
joining both these together makes an outright purchase less likely

[dr biotech] 09/11/2023 17:01

Not sure if a merger of two REITs is particularly value enhancing - shouldn't be a lot of saving if they are both well run in the first place.

[skyship] 09/11/2023 16:36

Likewise - bought back at just under 47.05p a few API I sold at 51.5p on Monday. Looking good value again.

[pavey ark] 09/11/2023 16:16

I did like UKCM and was quite happy with 6.5% yield as everything... loan finance, gearing etc was sound.....very sound ....but !!??

I sold last week at c. 59p as I thought the price had got ahead of itself (very slightly) and had a buy order in to buy back at a lower price....now cancelled.....cash moving on.

This deal looks rather complicated/unclear and fussy.

Quite happy for anyone to come along to any company and offer any amount and as a shareholder I can then decided.

Perhaps if I took the time and effort but ....can't be bothered.

Had a top up of API today .....at such a price that I thought I must have hit "sell" instead of "buy" ....now that doesn't happen very often.

[nickrl] 08/11/2023 08:44

possible all share merger with PCTN announced on same day as Q3 trading update issued. NAV down a tad and not a lot else to report for one of the bigger asset owners but no vacancy issues emerging and the Leeds hotel remains on track and Ocado are the biggest occupier at 5.9%!! Nothing said about the fact its empty ok not their issue but pretty high risk that they wont be extending the lease when it expires/breaks so will leave a big hole or potentially a good development opportunity perhaps.

[skyship] 26/10/2023 14:46

How UKCM sees the commercial property sector going forward:

[pavey ark] 05/10/2023 16:36

This is a company with £1.3 billion in assets ....over a billion in net assets ....£200m of long term loans (5.3 years ) at an interest rate of under 3% and cash of £30m ........a RCF drawdown of £27m is by comparison trivial.The company have acknowledged the expense of using their RCF further and are unlikely to do so.The Leeds Hotel completion is a full year on from these results and it looks like the company expect to largely cover the cost without loading the RCF.From my rather limited experience of REITS UKCM stands out and I am happily in profit .....as with API and SREI although with API ( my largest holding) this is largely down to a previous buy / sell and with SREI the same buy/ sell and a late repurchase at under 41p.Like everyone else I'm down on EBOX where I blanked my initial LTV and their ultra low but not long dated debt concerns and got swept along on an ADVFN love fest over the share.The blame was mine though and I was drawn by the European exposure.Content to be in REITS (50% of my income portfolio , 20% overall).The sector is not without it's problems and potential difficulties but this is reflected in the yield....as ever ....."you pays your money you takes your chance."

[nickrl] 05/10/2023 10:46

@paveyark just got around to looking through interim report. NRI is reduced this half against FY but looks like recent lettings have incentives so may improve in future as long as no other tenants walk. On the positive op side costs are down so divi just covered currently. They still have 38m on the Leeds hotel to be added to the RCF so cover will fall below par for next year until that asset starts performing. No issue on debt but the RCF is costly but they have plenty of cash so not sure why they don't keep the RCF lower.

Not in here currently but has shown more resilience than others over last few months.