Uk Commercial Property R... Share Discussion Threads

[nickrl] 17/10/2022 19:26

@badtime we aren't out of the woods yet so im sure there will be opportunities in the future to get lower than this price

[badtime] 17/10/2022 15:25

Now I am wishing I bought more at recent lows

[2wild] 17/10/2022 12:39

Nice 11.5% bump from recent 52p low to 58p. Still 42% discount to my estimated 31st December £1 NAV and circa 15% LTV.

[badtime] 15/10/2022 19:36

Oh bless you ..I bet uve never crossed the road any other way ..I don't want my taxpayers money spent that way ta..I can use my brain instead ..use less..pay less ..c simple

[nickrl] 15/10/2022 19:29

@raptor we do also have the advantage of biggest LNG storage capacity in Northern Europe which can store 13.8TWh in addition to the 12.5TWh in conventional storage.

Pretty well 2-3 LNG carriers arrive weekly in the UK largely from Qatar who we have a long term contract with carrying around 1TWh of gas.

Agree still makes us mediocre against Germany but gives us an additional buffer. Also because there is limit to what we can store in the UK when we get close to being maxed out the day ahead price drops considerably as the importers face huge penalties if they don't unload the boat when they arrive. No as EU expands its LNG import capacity in 2023 we may actually find things more challenging in 12mths time when we are competing against others if we don't join in with EU scheme to manage resources across Northern Europe system.

[kimboy2] 15/10/2022 14:17

They do help us cross the road. They are called pedestrian crossings.

I am sure the money spent on a campaign to use less energy would have yielded a positive return.

[badtime] 15/10/2022 13:57

Would you like the Government to help you cross the road too?Oh and by the way Offgem is to launch a campaign on energy use

[raptor_fund] 15/10/2022 10:43

UK energy supply companies might have bought new long term energy contracts or futures, but physically we are in the situation of having very limited gas storage. If supplies are disrupted from Europe, we may be seeing shortages. Idiotic the government is not asking us to use less, especially as it foots the bill for the majority of it now.

[nickrl] 14/10/2022 17:58

@hindsight there's nothing in the forward prices of gas for years that will see it back at levels we considered as normal for the last five years. However, we can at least take solace that the crazy peak has been unwound. Perhaps more positive is the front month falls back in the run up to start of month but how much gas has already been bought at inflated prices to ensure volume is secured so unclear yet whether or if government benefits from these lower prices.

[hindsight] 14/10/2022 17:47

Yes spectoacc im slightly dreaming but having heard all the talk of peak oil in 2011 and then they are worthless assets from Mark Carney, think im entitled to believe mean reversion can happen
150 would be a big rise from the 50 lows and still mean 150/29 = 5p kw wholesale

[rambutan2] 14/10/2022 16:43

Mr Bailey (who I'm very far from being a fan of) played a game of chicken with Truss and forced her hand. No doubt he was hoping she'd also be gone, but she is effectively, and might well be in person v shortly. The hapless Mr B is actually a bit of a hero...

[spectoacc] 14/10/2022 16:21

Fair comment - for all my doom & gloom, the one thing that would change my mind is a return to previous levels of energy prices. All economic growth is really the conversion of energy into "things".

The counters to that - gas prices were rising well before Russia; NordStream II is finished, blown up; no one is going to risk relying on Russian supply again; Russia seems more likely to descend into chaos than Navalny take over the Kremlin; there's more demand coming through if China ever gets past Covid.

Still - it remains a plausible bull point, up there with a Fed pivot.

Neither seems likely currently.

Other thing - as always - is what's in the price.

[hindsight] 14/10/2022 16:04

nickrl, when you say years, dont forget the one unknown, russia. If there was some change and gas prices reverted it would be very different
Confirmed reports of conscripts surrendering, and we havent even got to winter -5c in a trench yet with himars and m777 raining down

[nickrl] 14/10/2022 15:23

EI this bear market is only just starting i would suggest we are facing years of consumer income reducing and its only not fallen off a cliff because of the energy market intervention. 100k mortgages a month need refinancing and at IR at least 2% higher than they were eating into peoples disposable income at best although expect some collateral damage in people losing houses but at least it will be slow burn unlike previous occasions when rates were ratcheted up. So i reckon it will be hospitality that will take the hardest hit along with other leisure and holiday industry.

[essentialinvestor] 14/10/2022 10:57

gilt, do you have a view on GPE?, thanks.


off topic, I notice LTI available under NAV, who would have think it, eh.


Hopefully nearing the end of this bear market, which has been particularly brutal
for many UK smaller companies. Hopefully ample opportunities over the next 12 months.

[spoole5] 14/10/2022 10:49

Sold API and reinvested here, will hopefully recoup losses

[giltedge1] 12/10/2022 10:19

Agree all comes down to gearing, those with low gearing & can stress test with 7% interest rates (although most have 4 year or so fixed) will survive & be great buys at the bottom 7 - 8 % yields. Business tenants have invested a lot & are not going to suddenly stop trading. Also new builds will dry up next year. So most leases will come up for renewal in over a years time when hopefully conditions for financing will be better for REITS.

[hindsight] 12/10/2022 10:07

30% one thing, gearing another. As I remember IPI went to 60% gearing at the peak in 2007 and was wiped out



Those that were low geared and survived had decent 5 year returns, those high gearing never saw the light of day again

[spectoacc] 12/10/2022 07:01

Agree on director buying. Where is it?

But despite holding several in size still, I can't agree they're other than fair value. The notion that 30% is going to be the worst the NAV falls could get is way off IMO.

Edit - @ghhghh - there'll be no buy-backs due to Phoenix stake IMO. Not sure if they've anything to sell at even 10-20% discounts, but if they have, it needs to go against the debt, which is expanding with the Leeds hotel deal.

Hard to believe UKCM went to almost zero gearing as everything took off post-Covid, and right near the top started expanding it again.

Then again - "..Managed and advised by abrdn..".

[ghhghh] 11/10/2022 21:41

Obvious way forward is to flog some of their most saleable assets, taking say a 10% to 20% hit, and doing a massive share buyback.

I’d like to see more director buying across the sector, so far only CLS directors have made any significant recent buys? However they are reinvesting their recent tender proceeds.

I agree with Skyship, I bought today at 54.5p and very confident that this will prove a great buy. I’m happy to chase down from here, we can never call the bottom so FOMO prevails.

[skyship] 11/10/2022 21:02

"I think the current discounts are about right, unfortunately."

Hmm - have to disagree with you on that score:

20% NAV fall = 90.3p = 40.1% discount
25% NAV fall = 84.5p = 36.0% discount
30% NAV fall = 79.0p = 31.5% discount

All those discount levels are way above historic stats.

Current share price levels are crassly oversold; so buy now, hold for 9-18months and be well rewarded.

That's how I see it anyway...

[spectoacc] 11/10/2022 16:40

Good luck, I sold some today, but still hold plenty. Put my comments on that thread previously.

A fall of 20% has halfway started, based on the CBRE September figure, and the non-Budget Budget was towards the end of that month. I think the current discounts are about right, unfortunately.

[skyship] 11/10/2022 16:33

Good write-up on UKCM. I bought back in here today @ 54.1p. Historic discount of 52.1%, coupled with a yield of 6.28%. With only 13.7%LTV these look massively oversold.

A Q3 NAV fall of 10% would still give us an NAV of 101.6p for a 46.8% discount. A bottom of cycle fall of 20% would give us an NAV of 90.3p for a still 40.1% discount!