Uk Commercial Property R... Share Discussion Threads

[skyship] 08/8/2011 10:35

You're right - that really is about the sum of it - as per dasv's 10933 on the SHA thread - Goldman Sachs along with the rest of us have no real clue of where we're going.

Question is whether to try and trade the swings or opt out for a while. I'm inclined to the latter on this occasion.

Got a coin - yes, quite a few American Silver Eagles bought this time last year - will be holding on to those for quite a bit longer...future prezzies for grandchildren perhaps!!!!!!

[badtime] 08/8/2011 09:42

got a coin sky?..lol

[skyship] 08/8/2011 09:41

Dilemma - share price back to 71p-71.15p. Yield = 7.4%. NAV Discount = 7.5% on 76.9p 30th Jun'11 valuation. XD in two days time. Should they be bought?

Problem is this is solely an institutional stock; and they were mad enough to buy up to a 10% premium - so no knowing what they will do now!

[topvest] 02/5/2010 16:35

Yes, I would suspect that they may move towards this as it was quite a unique and attractive option for FCPT holders. Not really bothered either way, but I suspect a few FCPT holders are!

[pip_uk] 02/5/2010 09:14

Ah! I see where your coming from now, had not considered that at all.
But I agree with you that this has the makings of an interesting merger.
I am presently holding FCPT in my ISA for the dividend mainly.
I just wonder that if the merger comes off will they continue with the monthly divi.
Being a bit long in the tooth and an estranged Equitable Life refugee I find the monthly income very useful.

[topvest] 01/5/2010 14:43

Not bad news for FCPT - bad news for the investment manager, F&C! I think this is a good merger; fairly compelling case, creating a gigantic property income trust with a good portfolio and minimal gearing.

[pip_uk] 01/5/2010 09:27

Topvest.
Why do you think this will be bad news for FCPT.
In the proposal holders of FCPT would be offered a cash get out.
FCPT share price has been a steady riser for some months now.

[topvest] 25/4/2010 11:31

Interesting announcement re. merger proposals with FCPT. This would make this a very large trust. Good news for UKCM. Bad news for F&C I think.

[skyship] 01/5/2009 19:01

Topvest - same as FCPT - means nothing really. As I stated above, the problem here is the now very limited NAV discount. At 62p could perhaps be as low as 5%!

Advice has to be - bank the profit & buy TAP.

[topvest] 01/5/2009 18:54

Another continuation vote - odd to announce after hours on a Friday. Hmm...don't like that sort of behaviour. Any thoughts?

[skyship] 25/4/2009 12:19

Ptolemy - RE: REITs

I've traded LAND & SGRO & currently hold as a spec a small allocation in BXTN. But my interest has mainly been in the PICs (Best Current Buy being TAP - see above) + the two "Property Investment Trusts" - IGRE & TRYS. I'm now out of the latter, but yesterday bought back into the former @ 42.8p.

[skyship] 25/4/2009 12:12

More on that Kew Retail Park purchase:



Topvest & Sleepy - UKCM has been a treasured friend; but recently there have been better fish to fry.

My concern here has primarily been that the NAV discount inevitably reduces to a less attractive level as the share price rises, so as always, it is a judgement call on the Yield & the Discount.

At 60p the discount to a likely current NAV of 65p is a mere 7.7%. IMO "Fair Value" should be in the range of 15%-20% discount, ie an share price in the range 52.0p-55.25p. As to the dividend, the cover is a mere 63% from income revenue. Though that will increase from last week's deal + more to come from both cash & debt; nevertheless there has to be a risk that UKCM will seek to reduce the dividend to a sustainable level covered by revenue.

Should they cut to 3.5p then the yield support would collapse; and even at the 52.5p buyback level the yield would still only be 6.7%.

Personal View - UKCM is fully priced versus its peers
Personal Favourite - TAP - at 19p the NAV discount = 60.5% & the yield = 17.1%. The dividend is covered 1.15x by income.

[ptolemy] 23/4/2009 08:19

Skyship/chopshs,
Do you have a view on which REITS are best positioned for recovery? TIA

[topvest] 22/4/2009 21:47

Yes, true the dividend is not fully covered by earnings. Could be reduced to 4 or 5p I suppose, albeit they have the cash to maintain. No message either way with the results and I suspect they will wait and see how the markets perform. Looks well placed though versus most real estate companies.

[sleepy] 21/4/2009 14:41

Skyship - what do you think the level of recurring EPS is?

[skyship] 21/4/2009 14:05

Hi Topvest

Nearly bt some this morning @ 58.1p for a 9.03% yield. Decided to wait for a slightly lower price in view of the falling market. I also feel they could well slightly trim the dividend, only slightly - perhaps to 5.00p.

At 56.5p the NAV discount would be 14.8% and the yield on 5.25p = 9.3% - might wait to see if that comes around for my first re-entry.

I liked the £31.4m purchase of the Kew Retail Park, Richmond. 6.98% initial yield. A well-timed purchase IMO.

[sleepy] 21/4/2009 13:39

Yield may be attractive but is the dividend covered by earnings?

[topvest] 21/4/2009 08:36

Bought a few more today. The yield on this is very compelling at c10% - with no leverage. Long-term I would be surprised to see much better value propositions than this.

[skyship] 19/3/2009 16:17

Thanks to Daveperry on the IERE thread for posting this for us. Unfortunately it shows the shareholders after the changes rather than before, so I still don't know who sold...

=======================================================
Major Shareholders
UK Commercial Property Trust Ltd

* Buy
* Sell
* Real Time
* Print this Page
* Company Info
* Company Charts
* Shareprice Download

Major ShareholdersShares in issue:838.6m25p OrdsName Amount % Holding
Phoenix & London Assurance Limited 658,658,000 75.96
Newton Investment Management Ltd 52,746,785 6.29
State Street Nominees Ltd A/C OM01 26,784,000 3.09
Other DirectorsName Amount % Holding
Christopher Martin Hill marker 20,000 0.002
Andrew Luis Wilson marker 20,000 0.004
Christopher Fish marker 10,000 0.001
Keith Dorrian marker 10,000 0.001
John Ewart Robertson marker 10,000 0.002

marker = Director
===============================================

[bolador] 19/3/2009 15:12

The recent purchase of its own stock by ukcm was the result of an offering from an insurance co of approx 100 million shares at 52.6p which had all been
placed bu Tuesday this week. There is no FSA involvement in this transaction.

[britishb] 19/3/2009 10:11

What drivel, Kenny.

UKCM do not pay out dividends in excess of net income....and buying back shares at this price will have the effect of increasing dividends per share. The things that could cause a reduction in the dividend are a move to non REIT status (not very likely IMO) or reduced income from the property portfolio (more than likely but not enough to cause the divi to dip significantly IMO).

As for the "exhaust their cash pile" comment...well I jolly well hope they do if they can keep buying back at 52p.

Durrrr....

[kenny] 18/3/2009 11:23

UKCM surely cannot afford to both buy back shares and pay dividends exceeding net income. They will soon exhaust their cash pile.

That leads me to the view they were forced into this buyback otherwise the shares would have been dribbled out with an adverse effect on the share price.

Someone is clearly desperate to get out and I wonder if this is to do with what might emerge from the FSA investigation.

[skyship] 18/3/2009 07:15

"TRANSACTION IN OWN SHARES:

On 17 March 2009 UK Commercial Property Trust Limited ('the Company') purchased 28,571,429 of its own ordinary shares of 25p, to be held in treasury, at a price of 52.5p per share.

Following this purchase the Company's issued share capital consists of
880,000,000 ordinary shares of which 41,445,142 ordinary shares are held in
treasury. The total number of shares with voting rights in the Company is
838,554,858"
==================================================================

28,571,429 - Wonder how they came up with that figure!

[topvest] 17/3/2009 20:57

Yes, massive volume today - lets see what gets announced.

[skyship] 17/3/2009 16:58

INTRIGUING or what?!'~#

85.7m shares (9.9% of the Company) sold @ 52.5p...

Looks as though 12.2m were bt back on a put-through @ 52.605p.

The other 73.5m not yet accounted for....but my money is on a buyback. Would be a damned good deal for UKCM shareholders IMO.

Still, will wait for a lower price before I'm back in - reasons stated in previous posts.