Uk Commercial Property R... Share Discussion Threads

[skyship] 25/5/2013 13:46

wskill - sorry been bearish of ALPH since they were in their 30s; as you will see if you look through the ALPH & CP+ thread posts since 2011. The asset manager buying is not necessarily a bullish indicator - Paul Cable has been a regular buyer all the way down - poor sod!

They may well have their day in the sun again, at least vis-a-vis the current share price; but they remain one of those where I wouldn't go, just like IERE & ERET.

[wskill] 25/5/2013 11:55

SKYSHIP have you had a look at ALPH net vasset value 30.7p and presently 5p to buy and this is after allowing for losses on a currency swap .I cannot see Barclays not rolling over their loan in 2015 and all they require is to sell an unmortgaged property to clear the swap slightly more risk but even the asset manager has increased their stake to above 8%.

[skyship] 25/5/2013 11:39

Just 10days later & DSC closed @ 200p yesterday - rather quicker than I expected.

We are all property investors, so is there anything to learn from the success of DSC - up 36% in just 3weeks.

Well, for me it has to be in Post No.146 here. When you see a 40% NAV discount in a propco NOT swamped in debt and swap losses - think OPPORTUNITY rather than DANGER. This is the 4th such winner over the past year - APT, CIC, SREI & now the rather more vertigous recovery in DSC... Sadly no obvious new candidates currently on offer.

[skyship] 14/5/2013 09:02

As per my 156 above on DSC. After 2 weeks of every imaginable piece of good news they've now risen 16% to the 172p short-term target. May need to consolidate awhile before breaking resistance and powering on to 200p...

[pillion] 13/5/2013 15:09

From the above Daily Mail article

And on average over the past five years, only 87p in every pound paid in dividends has been covered by rental income, leaving 13p as a return of investors' capital

[skyship] 01/5/2013 13:14

RCT - look at the Board interview on the DSC thread - great confirmation of why they are a BUY; also just for you there may be a Special Dividend. Encouraging to note the CEO talking of giving something more back to shareholders (see CEO's concluding remarks - also last page of the transcript).

[rcturner2] 01/5/2013 10:03

Too small to interest me.

[skyship] 01/5/2013 09:45

A 2.4p final providing a maintained 4.8p/annum - so only 3.3% - rather parsimonious, but useful nevertheless...

[rcturner2] 01/5/2013 09:17

Thanks skyship, what's the yield there?

[skyship] 01/5/2013 08:52

O/T - but re mentions of DSC in Post Nos. 143-146; they reported their Prelims today.

Profits/ROCE well up and NAV rose in H2'13, whereas most pure propcos reporting NAV falls. Undeniably bullish comments as to future growth. At 148p the NAV discount = 41%. A simple recovery to recent 2013 highs @ 172p would provide a 16% turn. Plenty of comment on the thread:

[britishb] 29/4/2013 18:38

Apology accepted Skyship. I suspect the uncovered dividends (is anyone left paying them apart from UKCM?) were a hangover from the days when Mad Mr Market thought capital values for com prop would go up and up forever. Ignorant and arrogant, non?

[banj] 29/4/2013 17:16

Fantastic guys, you are all brilliant sharing and challenging openly in this way. Thanks again :-)

[rcturner2] 29/4/2013 17:10

Thanks for the posts on this thread guys, I have found them very useful.

[cwa1] 29/4/2013 17:06

Ah, just seen your recent post(Skyship) and we all seem to be in happy agreement now!

[cwa1] 29/4/2013 17:05

Have to say that I HOPE and expect that FCRE have taken the opportunity with the recent rebase to look ahead and pay out what they see as being a sustainable level going forward, all other things being equal. So I'm in the(hopefully) no further cuts camp FWIW.

[skyship] 29/4/2013 17:00

bb - apologies, I thought they were still sticking to the uncovered 1.8p/Qtr. So they've cut to 5p as part of the merger terms. A sensible move.

[britishb] 29/4/2013 16:52

Why would u expect FCRE to cut divi Skyship? Baseless nonsense if you ask me. Post IRP/IPT merger the divi will be a comfortably covered 5p (for 7.1% yield at today's price).

I mean they "might" cut it for any number of reasons but can't see any "need" for further cut at current time.

[skyship] 29/4/2013 16:37

Jonwig - agreed. I'm now prepared to accept lower performance but increased security. Hence I'm substantially overweight in Private Equity (see the PE thread if interested in the sector); and have exceeded my routine 10% MAX any stock so as to log into the "assured" 14%/15%pa growth at ACD as they liquidate over the next 23months - a really great stock that one.

Take a look at ACD if not already in there - pose any Qs on the ACD thread & I'll try to answer.

EDIT - re the FCRE dividend - I would expect them to cut.

[jonwig] 29/4/2013 16:20

Skyship - right, I was nodding off. "FCRE" is a new one to me.

But, I suppose my attitude is very much in response to the low risk part of the request: I don't want to make lots these days, but I do want to avoid big losses in the event of a market fall.
DSC is due to announce results soon. I'll read them.

EDIT: will FCRE maintain the dividend?

[skyship] 29/4/2013 15:31

Jonwig - Don't make the mistake of the "Market always Knows". It doesn't. The reasons for a possibly temporary high NAV discount are many and varied.

Last year SREI sank to 32p and offered an 11% yield and a 40% NAV discount whilst Lloyds was selling its holding. As soon as they were out - whoosh - the share price climbed 27% in less than 2months.

Recently CIC was flat on it back and infamously so. Sentiment totally against it due to an excessive remuneration package. They started to put things right, so I bought at c90p on a 40% NAV discount at the start of this year. Now up 24%

APT recently stood at more than a 50% discount. Up 30% since then on liquidation news.

As for DSC - well, you effectively put it how it is. You pays your money and you takes your choice...worth looking at in any event...

[skyship] 29/4/2013 15:19

Jonwig - No, he means FCRE - the moniker of the new company following the merger of IRP & IPT. No thread yet. FCPT a totally different entity...

[jonwig] 29/4/2013 14:36

Banj - by "FCRE" do you mean FCPT, F&C Commercial Property Trust? That's paying 6p covered and yielding 5.6% with a premium to NAV. It has significant West London assets.

The dividend has been confirmed for next year, and it pays 0.5p monthly (which I don't really appreciate).
It trades at a premium to NAV, but you're paying for top-of-class.
And FCPT may convert to a REIT in the future, meaning you really need to hold in an ISA or SIPP or you'll lose 20% of your dividend.

The skyship plays need a bit more research and are by no means "safe" or "safe-ish".
Why does DSC trade at a 40% discount to net assets? It could be a big bargain, or ... not.

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On the argument about paying uncovered dividends, would you put £100 into a savings account offering a "5% yield", only to find you'd got your £5 after a year and £97 back when you cashed in?
These companies should come clean.

[skyship] 29/4/2013 13:21

Banj - take a look at the CP+ thread.



There have still been some good plays this year; though slower than 2009/12. CIC has provided a rapid 25% for a few follower; and APT and PCTN have been two other useful plays. The charts in the Header reveal other successes whilst also showing perhaps better to trade the swings rather than buy & hold.

Slightly speculative, but could be a profitable trade over Wednesday's Prelims, is Development Securities (DSC). George Soros' Quantum Partners recently bought a 5.7% holding. NAV discount = 40%. They were a week market on Friday however, so who knows...

[britishb] 29/4/2013 11:43

FCRE offers a slight better than covered yield of c 7.1%. Higher gearing (near 50% LTV from memory) so a bit more risk.

NOt very exciting any of them. I only hold in case we have a Cyprus moment!