Uil Share Discussion Threads

[riskvsreward] 11/2/2018 14:29

Thanks Morton for the information. As the saying goes "Market is always right".

Having said that one can also argue that other gold miners are not exactly operating in very safe environment,such as cey in Egypt and rrs in africa.

Anyway one cannot argue with the market.

[morton2011] 11/2/2018 11:38

You can only really tell if something is or was cheap when you try and sell it. ICM/ saville have been invested in Resolute for over a decade and still waiting to prove that.

I agree RSG looks 'cheap' but it only recently started paying dividends and its key asset is in Mali which has a clear political risk. Resolute investing to increase production significantly on the basis of their various models for what they will find. Still 12 months away so investors cautious maybe as at the moment production for RSG is decreasing annually despite all the increases in 'reserves'.

[riskvsreward] 11/2/2018 11:14

talking about gold shares in utl portfolio, can anyone explain why rsg is looking so cheap (pe < 6), compared to other gold stocks like cey (pe > 22) and rrs for example? It is a low cost producer, very cash generative and having good reserve.

Perhaps utl and its affiliates can buy the whole company out at the cheap?

[spectoacc] 11/2/2018 07:51

Gold will come into its own when Trump bombs N Korea nuclear facilities after the winter Olympics, and the N Koreans nuke Guam. :(

[vacendak] 10/2/2018 21:37

Yes to both points, add AfterpayTouch to the list.
The problem remains that very few seem interested in buying UTL.

Having bought in a long time ago, I have been merely holding and reinvesting the divis, living in the hope that one day the discount will shrink when others become excited about the company.
The issue for new investors is of course the silly spread, so once you are in, it is costly to leave in the short to medium term. Still, like Mulder in the 90s "I want to believe" in UIL Ltd. :)

We also took a big hit with the return of volatility to the markets, sadly disproving the gold hedge strategy (gold did not really go up during the week in £ anyway) of the portfolio setup.

[topvest] 10/2/2018 12:32

Some of their investments seem to be doing really well. Optal Limited looks a very interesting company and could well be listed at some point. A rare bread of company: technology, high growth and enormously profitable.

PCF Bank also looks like it is in line for a number of years of high growth now it has its banking licence.

[russman] 28/1/2018 10:49

I would keep up the buybacks.
Manage the cashflow from sales to stay within gearing limits.

[vacendak] 27/1/2018 15:38

UIL Ltd must have been shorting Bitcoin hard since Christmas! :)

Latest NAV sligthly down, but since it is always given a couple of days late next week RNS could be better. Discount not moving much, but the share price jump is welcome.

[vacendak] 20/1/2018 21:23

Yep, all the dodgy things are done in broad daylight and reported openly. One only needs to read the reports. Of course, the bits with a boring grey background and in smaller print contain the juiciest bits, namely who owns UIL Ltd... and clues to who owns the vehicles which own UIL Ltd. :)

Something to bear in mind: ICM is rewarded according to the performance of the NAV, not really the share price. So the buybacks may not have much to do with fighting the discount... and we also know about the incestuous relationship of ICM/ICICM with UIL Ltd.

I was a bit late in reading the factsheet:
hxxp://www.uil.limited/files/3715/1575/0399/UIL_Factsheet_December_2017.pdf

The NAV hiccups of December might have been linked to this: "A review of the value of unlisted holdings resulted in the equity of Vix Technology being written down, although loans to the company were not impaired."

Have they at long last placed the bets right when it comes to forex?
"The foreign exchange hedge positions were increased during December. A New Zealand Dollar short position was reinstated with NZD 14.4m short position at the end of the month. The Australian Dollar short position was increased from AUD 127.8m at the end of November to AUD 140.9m at the end of December. The US Dollar short position was increased to USD 74.8m from USD 54.0m over the period. The Euro short position of EUR 6.0m was unchanged for the month."
Sterling has been going strong lately, also a good point for UIL Ltd current performance as it is seemingly against strong forex headwinds. I assume they short with relation to Sterling.

Sarcasm aside: Overall a good week as a UIL Ltd shareholder.

[morton2011] 20/1/2018 12:12

All news seems good at moment but one thing to note is that UIL is based in Bermuda and this means that a lot of the UK regulations don't apply to them in relation to large shareholdings and what it means for other investors. It is mentioned in the risk sections for investors in various documents they issue so is not hidden. I don't pretend to know what it all means but don't think the buybacks represent some kind of endgame.

If I understand the maths the NAV will increase as part of the buyback as less shares:

simple split cap

10 shares of £ 1 each
Borrows £ 10
Gross assets = £ 20
NAV = £ 1 per share (20-10/10 shares)

Mr Market values the shares at £ 0.50

So split cap buy 2 shares for 50 p each at a cost of £ 1.
Gross Assets = £ 19
Borrowings same at £ 10
NAV = £ 1.125 per share (19-10 / 8)
If Mr Market thinks the share price value is 50% of the NAV then shareprice would increase to £ 0.5625.

Mr Market however may not like the gearing which was 100% and is now 111%

In UIL case as the gross assets increasing due to the underlying shares moving up its gearing is coming down so the buyback effect to the gearing will be more than offset. They are within their gearing limits so sort of makes sense.

so £ 3 NAV looking more and more likely and share price should rise as well..

[riskvsreward] 19/1/2018 17:48

looks like a breakout upwards of the share price.

It is understandable the majority shareholder (board member in this case)will pursue share buy back if they plan the end game for their majority shareholdings. Why would one invest money anywhere else when his own company is on sale for half price, especially the asset are quite good liquid assets like rsg, apt, uem etc which can be realized easily at market price.

Personally as a small PI stakeholder I would like to see also more distribution through progressive dividends which may spur the share price from income seekers.

All in all a happy holder at the moment and will trade a small part of my holdings in and out depending on the price action.

[vacendak] 17/1/2018 20:43

Agreed, depending on the liquidity of the stock, share buybacks can just make things worse rather than fighting a large discount. And we all know about the not so diverse aspect of UIL Ltd share register indeed.

I have just learnt to live with that big discount anyway because UIL Ltd is one of the few remaining split capital trusts left and people are still wary of those.

The no nonsense solution to reduce the discount would to grow the NAV steadily and strongly, then people notice and start buying. Things have improved of late with regards to the NAV progression.

[morton2011] 17/1/2018 14:13

I see ASX updated today on Utilico shareholding in APT

www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20180117/pdf/43qvw339q3yblh.pdf

Utilico have 7.25% of AFT now - 15,572,467 shares worth AUS$ 121 million. So around £ 63 million or around 13% of UIL if guesstimating Gross assets for UIL of £ 500 million. They sold £ 6.5 million approx of APT shares since September, not clear when they sold but as it was averaging over AUS$ 6 a share most would have been this month.

I don't see the benefit in buying back shares for the smaller investor. It just concentrates the ICM holdings and increases the gearing.

[spectoacc] 17/1/2018 10:29

Thanks all. Been buying back too I see:

"The Board of UIL Limited (the "Company") announces that on 16 January 2018 the Company purchased for cancellation 243,237 ordinary shares of 10p each at a price of 171p per share. "

Would rather they'd have paid 161p the other day!

[vacendak] 16/1/2018 21:44

Like many I have ten fingers, so can at most stick them in ten pies.
I wonder how many fingers Mr Saville has! :)

Anyway, good run for UIL Ltd lately, so I shall tip my hat to the ICM/ICICM team. Always good to see one of their bets pay-off. Hopefully this will not turn out like the bout of fever from Resolute from a while back, we were dreaming of UTL at 200p+ back then.

@riskvsreward
I also check the ASX entries in the morning and picked up that amazing jump from APT too. Impressive.

[morton2011] 16/1/2018 20:18

https://www.afterpaytouch.com/images/2017.09.26-604-Afterpay-Touch-Group-Limited.pdfAussie disclosure statements seem more transparent than U.K. regs. Duncan saville was director in past of afterpay as well as investor.

[riskvsreward] 16/1/2018 18:34

Apt up almost 17% today. apt accounts for over 10% of utl NAV directly. Anyone knows if other funds that utl holds also have a stake in apt?

utl investment in resources and fintech seems to be sound in current environment. Only negatives are liquidity, layers of management charges and transparency.

[morton2011] 16/1/2018 16:58

Price rise may well be as Afterpay up another 10% on xmas update in Aus last night, marketcap > £ 1 billion and UIL have 8-9% of it when I last looked.

hxxps://www.afterpaytouch.com/images/APT_ASX-Announcement_Q2-FY18_16-Jan-Final-2.pdf

1.5 million customers in 3 years, very impressive. 4000 new customers a day, in last quarter..

Afterpay also got support from Matrix Partners (early investors in ebay, paypal etc), large VC outfit in US and planning to try and take their model to the US at end of the year with Matrix support.

hxxps://www.afterpaytouch.com/images/APT-ASX-Announcment-16-January-20181.pdf

[spectoacc] 16/1/2018 15:47

Perhaps finally breaking out of their range - if you believe in that sort of thing ;)

[vacendak] 11/1/2018 20:08

And 274.36p for the NAV, this has been heading in the right direction for four weeks running now.
Just you wait when Afterpay switches to Bitcoin! :)

[vacendak] 10/1/2018 05:09

Zeta gained 9.1% overnight. It rarely trades so this is more price discovery than anything, but still...
Maybe a wild ride up to 200p on the cards soon for good old UTL?

[morton2011] 09/1/2018 19:59

Afterpay (APT) has ticked up while investors await to hear how good a Christmas they had - share price today ended up as all the 6's or the number of the beast perhaps at $6.66 - up another 10% since the New Year and the last UIL Nav. If the market update when it comes is not as expected the price could fall significantly of course.

[riskvsreward] 09/1/2018 18:19

It does have some very good assets in stocks like uem, apt, rsg, infratil and it pays a decent income of over 4.5%. I am accumulating this while the price represents very good value for money. See through NAV almost double the price.

[topvest] 09/1/2018 18:12

At least it's worth something unlike Bitcoin! Blockchain and bitcoins are pure lunacy. Long term value is £nil.

[vacendak] 09/1/2018 18:06

UTL goes up and down like Bitcoin these days. :)