Ubisense Share Discussion Threads

[p1nkfish] 27/1/2018 10:53

Both those trades appear after close of play too.
Average 90 day trading volume is < 10K shares.

So - in total 17x average volume, one above offer, occur 1 day before trading update, reported after close of play on day of trading update on a Friday.

Where is this heading? Up.

Break 50p and it can run.

Imho, HOLD, buy on weakness,

[p1nkfish] 27/1/2018 10:35

shrout, below was reported late and I can't find them on the list for 24th January.
One above offer, 47p vs 46p.
Not far to go to 50p, just the right news.
They stand out on value, timing before trading update release and then delayed until after release??


What do you think?

Date Time Price Volume Bid Offer Value
24-Jan-18 11:19:54 45.00 90,000 Buy*  43.00 46.00 40.50k
24-Jan-18 11:19:04 47.00 80,000 Buy*  43.00 46.00 37.60k

[p1nkfish] 27/1/2018 00:31

About 73% of shares are in fairly strong hands that have held through tough times and want a return, expect a return, demand a return.

Management have incentives around 70p.

They operate in a next generation industrial market that is nascent, growing and only going one way.

Guess where this is heading.

[shrout] 26/1/2018 20:43

Just as you say.. a break above 50p would be confirmation that the turnaround is underway. As things stand the chart suggests that's a more likely scenario than a return to 35p or below.

Bear in mind that charts can't predict anything with certainty. All they can do is give an idea of the balance of probabilities, and thus give the trader/investor that slight edge which in theory is all you need to make profits over the long term rather than losses.

[p1nkfish] 26/1/2018 20:00

What does the chart suggest shrout?

[p1nkfish] 26/1/2018 19:24

Have not always been positive.
Original CEO was far from my ideal for this company.

Now I think they have learnt a few lessons.

Break 50p and this could run up imho. Very tightly held now too.

[shrout] 26/1/2018 17:57

I wouldn't say I follow you.. basically I'm a chartist and had bought in before I'd read a word you'd said, purely on a potent looking chart. But to have someone on the thread who appears to know the industry and the company pretty well and is consistently positive is an added bonus to a punter like me.

So thanks for all the background info... it's fascinating, though I have to admit mostly way over my head.

[p1nkfish] 26/1/2018 15:21

Just look at the customers - when your factory depends on a system/vendor the likes of BMW/Merc do due diligence. If they and Lockheed are happy to rely on UBI then I think it has something worthwhile going for it.

[p1nkfish] 26/1/2018 15:19

I would never suggest anyone follow me so please take care.

However, I have been accumulating here, have quite a qty, and a decent average price.

Look at the management incentives to get to 70p+.

All this Smart Factory, Industry 4.0, Industrial IoT - all can use digital spatial models and "where is" queries.

Then there is "where is" in infrastructure.

My take is UBI is well positioned with special capabilities and is under valued. This could easily be £100M market cap. > 2.5x where it is. That doesn't not seem at all unrealistic.

They are due to get a double whammy of increased sales whilst average margin rises as the GE legacy products are retired. That's a margin and revenue multiplier.

Now - don't expect high profit yet as they are investing on capabilities, sales, software etc but its all good investment and will show through.

I much prefer Industrial IoT as an area than Smart City or residential IoT and the big kicker is Ind IoT with Ind Factory control software stitch-in. It looks like that is what Ubi have. Not to mentioned the SmallWorld area.

I think they probably don't want to shout about it as price can run ahead of results massively in this area as has happened before.

Patience needed and I would have no surprise to see a bid come in. If I was GE, Honeywell, Bosch, Siemens or even SAP I might want a piece of this.

[shrout] 26/1/2018 14:25

I'm in Pinkfish, FWIW, and have been for some time (12 months). I don't have the capability of analysing this company or it's prospects, so can only hope what you say about it is true.

Looking for results in March to confirm the upbeat trading statement, in which case that fabled entity 'the crowd' might finally wake up and smell the geospatials.

[p1nkfish] 24/1/2018 23:53

How long before some crowd arrives?
The changes here are profound but unrecognised.

[p1nkfish] 24/1/2018 09:57

NmnGood trading update.
Turn around happening.

[p1nkfish] 03/1/2018 23:21

Worth a read

[p1nkfish] 28/12/2017 22:16

UBI mentioned having won new business in Thailand in the release associated with the funding round this Autumn. They also have the Bosch agreement and below is the first Smart Factory in Thailand and is Bosch.

Bosch committed to further investment in SE Asia for 2018 onwards and Thailand, Vietnam specifically.

[p1nkfish] 21/12/2017 15:36

Pacific Gas and Electric - debacle with North Cal fires and now cut dividend.
Network mapping thoroughly could have helped.
Hope UBI are in there selling.

IMHO this is becoming a BUY.

[p1nkfish] 10/12/2017 14:09

Interesting price move Fri 8th Dec on decent uptick in volume.
Still think this will be acquired.
In the Bosch camp for Ind 4.0 vs the Siemens/SAP side plus others.
SAP are making good progress and still shopping in IoT.

Someone will come knocking, only a matter of time.

[p1nkfish] 23/10/2017 22:07

Something interesting going on with trade price at 39p/100K and 38p/125K. The 39p was above ask?

Have they won some business?

It might be more impetus for the £5.5M cash raise as working capital.
I have got this wrong so far.

Interesting to see where the other 8% have landed once the placing is complete.

[p1nkfish] 19/10/2017 08:50

More dilution.
17M new shares to add to about 55M,
About 30% diluted.

Now - with IFRS change plus run off of GE product related revenue it could look ugly at next results unless they land some convincing new contracts with their own IP at better margins.

This is where IFRS change could kick in as they can't recognise large contract orders in one go.

Will there be a dip in revenue where they have to compensate for with news to support the sp?

Interesting times, unfortunately.

[p1nkfish] 02/10/2017 00:42

Can't argue with the numbers, with the words, yes.

IRFS15 adoption will have some impact on larger contract revenue and cost recognition too. Yet to be quantified in Ubisense case.

Post period strategic sale starting at £1M in US aerospace/Mil area. Should develop.

Strategy of the Group makes no mention of profitability. Should do so.

Overall growth over 2016 results expected.

Expecting growth for rest of year & beyond, increased pipeline and increased margins.

11.32% of float outstanding as options. Management incentivized to achieve 70p share price for 60 consecutive days between Dec 2018 - Dec 2019.

Substantial losses to set against any future profit.

HSBC loan covenant requires nil "operating cashflow" by end 2017 and +£1M each year thereafter. Some discipline at least.

I think an offer will be made for at least one division. History doesn't repeat but does sometimes rhyme - GE.

[middlesboroughfc] 30/9/2017 20:34

looks clapped out

The operating loss and loss for the period was GBP1.9 million (H1 2016: GBP0.8 million)


be bust in 18 months

[p1nkfish] 30/9/2017 19:05

Quick check on major holders, most 3%+ holders remain unchanged.

Since 20th March 2017 until 28th Sept 2017 changes are:

Livingbridge have sold down at least 1,143,916 shares & no longer need to notify (<3%) and have no more than 1,391,677 left to clear for about £515K at 37p.

Kestrel and related parties have increased by 392,500 shares but can't add much more.

Colombia Threadneedle have increased by 822,360 shares.

[p1nkfish] 24/9/2017 23:33

This week for results if they meet expectations. Tick up in buy volume on Friday 22/9 but still an overhang to clear.

"The Company expects to announce its results for the 6 months ending 30 June 2017 in September 2017."

[p1nkfish] 13/9/2017 07:20

Living Bridge now have about 1.35M shares, about £559K at 40p.
An organised clear out would help remove one hang over of stock.

[p1nkfish] 12/9/2017 17:49

I can't help but think Ubisense will see an uptick in business post Irma and Harvey.

Their capabilities helped post Sandy.

Mapping out services and infrastructure is critical to help restore utilities and recover. It will be proven and on rebuild expect more interest in myWorld ready for next time.

Just mho.

[p1nkfish] 11/9/2017 15:51

Threadneedle increased holding. Was the big transaction last week.
Threadneedle plus Kestrel now about 47%.
Add Robert Sansom and its about 56% between what I expect to be long term holders.
The right news to clear out the overhang and this will move up.