U And I Share Discussion Threads

[shauney2] 03/5/2018 10:11

A snippet from todays Shares magazine who advise to keep buying

In a recent research note on the stock, newly-appointed joint house broker Liberum issued a price target of 280p. Analyst David Brockton commented: ‘The combination of visible attractive returns and an unjustified valuation discount enhances the share price upside.’

Based on his forecasts the shares trade on a 28% discount to the 305.9p net asset value predicted for the year ending February 2019, and yield 6.4%.

[podgyted] 03/5/2018 10:09

Shaker I was replying to dekle - we crossed.
I agree with your comments on IC wholeheartedly - my subscription is on a knife-edge and if they don't remove that Alpha pop-up soon I'm definately gone.

[shaker44] 03/5/2018 09:06

No I was talking generally about other companies that they judge by sector norms ignoring significant characteristics of individual companies. Just superficial stuff leading to incorrect conclusions

[podgyted] 03/5/2018 09:00

I think you mean an article called the deadly sevens in the IC. Premise was that it was not worth wasting time on shares with a PER under 7 and a yeild above 7 - which UAI happened to fit at the time. I agreed with some of the article (much of the time bombed-out companies) - but not in connection with UAI.
I agree with BB the market tends to look at this on TBV, but what I'm here for is the pipeline. Market wants to pidgeon-hole it into a box but it actually doesn't fit.

[shaker44] 03/5/2018 08:49

I do find that increasingly IC analysis is shallow and sloppy. Meantime they try to upsell subscribers to their high cost alpha service. Outrageous unless they improve analsys considerably.

[shaker44] 03/5/2018 08:49

I do find that increasingly IC analysis is shallow and sloppy. Meantime they try to upsell subscribers to their high cost alpha service. Outrageous unless they improve analsys considerably.

[dekle] 03/5/2018 08:14

U & I were recently highlighted in shares or IC (can't remember which)mags about companies with high yields and poor dividend cover (I think). Perhaps that's what is putting doubt in some peoples minds. If someone else read the article maybe they could be more precise about the concerns raised. I have taken the view this as a general observation not exactly related to the particular circumstances of U&I. Interested to know if others read it and their opinion. Thanks, Dekle

[bogdan branislov] 03/5/2018 08:08

U and I tends to be viewed in terms of its discount to TBV. Whilst this is not unreasonable, it is also misleading. A decent proportion of the business and in particular the growing parts of the business, are based on partnership arrangements with local authorities in which U and I do not hold the assets. Therefore if the business is being evaluated on its discount to TBV, the parts of the business in which U and I do not hold the assets are effectively thrown in for free. A typical house builder is valued at nearly twice its TBV and the house builder business model is almost entirely dependent upon its asset base in nearly all cases. Few would argue that U and I is a bargain at its current price, but in reality it is far cheaper than even most of its current investors actually realise. Bogdan

[asturius101] 03/5/2018 07:41

asmodus will prob buy in when it's at £3...

[asturius101] 03/5/2018 07:40

lol what a curiously bizarre statement.

[asmodeus] 03/5/2018 07:34

Something is not right here. It all looks too good to be true - and we know what that implies..... I was tempted back in, but my feet are just refusing to warm up...

[asturius101] 02/5/2018 22:04

good to see this is getting more attention. still escapes me why someone would sell over 50k of stock a few days from the ex div date - that's £6k down the drain!

[mattcookson] 02/5/2018 20:29

What a hidden little gem, Bought a few earlier today. 15.5p dividend over the coming days and solid business performance over the last couple of years. what’s not to like? That’s a circa 7% yield at the current share price The rate at which this is going north, I can see this easily smashing the 300 by the 2nd ex divi date. 12p special XD 10 May, 3.5p final XD 19 July. SOLID BUY!!

[podgyted] 02/5/2018 20:22

I think this has a fair chance of getting close to it's NTBV of 300 in the short term if momentum keeps up - possible with IC plugging at every oppotunity.

Medium term I can see this over 400 if its pipeline pans out.

However, I do stand to be corrected by spob after my original faux pas.

[spob] 02/5/2018 17:48

ftse250 auto entry position is around 830m at the moment

[mikett1] 02/5/2018 17:47

Just checked, there's a few around £620-660 million. A fair way off, but a medium term target. My second point stands though: with so many shares being held by II, this has the potential to fly.

[spob] 02/5/2018 17:43

he said 250 not 100

[podgyted] 02/5/2018 17:06

Be a long time before that happens.

Somewhere north of £2Bn.

[mikett1] 02/5/2018 16:58

People have finally started to notice the stonking value here. So much further to go!! What market cap does it need to get in to the FTSE250? which will, in my opinion, send this flying (with so few shares in private investors hands).

[podgyted] 02/5/2018 16:55

Seems to be rerating somewhat as we speak.

[shaker44] 02/5/2018 14:09

sure, and charlie@liberum is pretty conservative with his forecasts

[speedsgh] 02/5/2018 13:02

Would not be surprised to see FY2021 figures revised upwards over time. Not that easy forecasting 3yrs ahead imo.

[shaker44] 02/5/2018 12:46

thanks. surprised they expect a 2021 decline

[speedsgh] 02/5/2018 12:17

@shaker

Two main attractions:

NAV - Possible reduction of current 27% discount to NAV with hopefully some gentle NAV growth thrown in over time.

DIVIDEND - Attractive dividend distributions over the next 3yrs (but don't use FY2018 total payout of 17.90p as a yardstick). Steady core dividend (interim + final) of 5.90p supplemented by a special, the level of which is largely determined by the amount of development/trading gains achieved in a given year. Current forecasts for FY19-21 are:

FY2019 - dev/trading gains £45-50m target - total div 13.9p*
FY2020 - dev/trading gains £45-55m target - total div 13.9p*
FY2021 - dev/trading gains £35-45m target - total div 12.4p*

* Liberum forecast

[shaker44] 02/5/2018 02:41

just considering buying in and welcome views from long term players here. looks solid rather than exciting underpinned by big discount to nav, and generous payouts. Looks like about 75% held by 8 institutions, so the payouts should continue.
director holdings lower than I expected? and 5 year profit very volatile?
But looks a better option than cash in the bank!