U And I Share Discussion Threads

[bluerunner] 11/1/2018 11:28

The Shares Magazine write-up was very positive (copyrighted so won't provide a link).Nothing people investing here don't already know (value case / yield etc).It may be the reason for the steady level of buys today.No shift in the share price yet though.

[spob] 11/1/2018 10:39

Can you share it rathkum ?

[rathkum] 11/1/2018 10:11

Very positive write up (recommendation) on U&I in this week's Share magazine

[bogdan branislov] 09/1/2018 10:57

A near 2 year break out above the £2.10 you think might be coming Mr Blue. Bogdan has been reading a lot of the commentary and chart to show how UK focused companies have significantly under the perform the overseas focused UK based companies, since 2016. This has held back all boats including the quality ops of the likes of U and I, Harworth and Van Elle. Overwhelming view is that this has been overdone and that investment community sees this as a great buying opportunity for UK focused companies. If we see a 60% rise to cTBV how you go to play this given the multi-bagging opportunity here? Bogdan he has about 40% in the U and I so once we say 10% to 15% ahead of TBV from YE to end of Feb, Bogdan will have to top slice, keeping U and I at the c35% of total so long as price not too far ahead of itself. To be honest though, the share price would have to race to well over 50% above the TBV over the next year to be getting ahead of itself. These are the kind of problems Bogdan likes to have, like in the Ithaca days. How do you see this Blue?

[bluerunner] 08/1/2018 15:19

£500k buy in the past half hour.Breakout on the way hopefully.

[speedsgh] 05/1/2018 18:00

@HP - About bloomin' time!

[hugepants] 05/1/2018 16:02

someone wants these

[bogdan branislov] 22/12/2017 22:10

Correction to my post below - Equipment works expected to be just into 8 figures not seven figures. Sorry, Bogdan

[bogdan branislov] 22/12/2017 13:26

Presumably Cannock designer outlet will impact the 2018 figures, from the press release, U and I stated:
The transaction will enable U+I to recognise the profits from the scheme as outlined in its FY18 guidance. By retaining a stake in the asset in its investment portfolio, the Company will participate in the long term performance of the property.

[speedsgh] 22/12/2017 10:32

FY18 Development/Trading gains progress:

At time of Interims (18/10/17) - £9.4m
Disposal of 4 small legacy projects (13/11/17) - £6.7m (£16.1m cumulative)
Sale of Equipment Works, Blackhorse Road (20/12/17) - £TBC (c£26m cumulative)
Hammersmith Grove (22/12/17) - £9-11m TBC (c£35-37m cumulative)

FY18 target: £65-70m

AFAICS

[bogdan branislov] 22/12/2017 10:28

A post copied from IC discussion re U and I:
1. A lot has already come in since the half year results, some can be quantified precisely, some less so, I contacted U and I yesterday asking them to clarify the value of the recent completions. They are usually very good at replying, but given the time of year I probably won't hear from them until after Christmas.

2. Putting what we do know together, some realisations worth around £10M were initially announced post last half year taking us to around £20M. Then there was Cannock, which as you suggest will generate larger gains. A few days ago the Equipment Works at Walthamstow was sold to Telford Homes for £33.9M. This is mixed use, c80% housing. If you extrapolate the housing numbers to the 100% equivalent then the 3 acre site produces c310 plots, value over £100k per plot - this looks quite a deal for U and I and their partner Parkdale Investments. How these gains are divided is not clear although as joint investor and development partner, U and I should receive a good slice of the considerable added value. The consensus seems to be that U and I's gains from the equipment Works will be just into 7 figures, but I have asked them to confirm this. Hammersmith grove will contribute about £10M, the wind farm and the Brighton student accommodation c£18M. Then there will be other incremental gains from smaller lettings to sites being held pending redevelopment etc. All in all we should get there comfortably.

3. These gains, if converted to a post tax PE ratio would equate to a PE of about 4. Next year will be slightly quieter so the average PE for the next 2 years will be around 5. After that earnings should pick up sharply.

4. I find it interesting that the market has applied so much scrutiny to U and I's late delivery of this year's profit realisations, when this is exactly what U and I said was going to happen; U and I have a track record of being honest about forecasts and last year, forecast to be a quieter year from the outset, was slowed even further following the Brexit vote, at which point U and I immediately informed us of the slowdown and reduced their forecasts. I don't think that the wording in the statements is suggesting they are any less bullish, if they thought that the forecasts were not going to be reached then they would simply tell us, they are not cryptic people, anyway, given recent gains I think we will reach forecasts comfortably.

5. Compare this to Inland Homes and Urban & Civic who with their co-operative house brokers issue TBV growth for the past year, which they were sticking to even at the half year point, that turned out to be complete works of fiction when the final results came in - not an issue for IC or anyone else apparently - those two companies are taking investors for fools.

6. Jonas' article, Gary White and other have said similar things, highlights how the London real estate negativity was misplaced and is perceptions are starting to change.

7. I keep a close eye on U and I's web site and announcements and I have to say that I am totally impressed by the sheer creativity and value adding capacity of this company - as demonstrated by the recent equipment works sale.

[hugepants] 22/12/2017 10:03

We remain on track to realise profits in line with our FY18 guidance and will continue to keep shareholders updated on our progress."


They sound confident

[bluerunner] 22/12/2017 07:41

Edging closer and closer to that target.Undervalued and substantial upside potential.And a decent dividend.

[speedsgh] 21/12/2017 20:52

@amid - See rns 13/11/17 notifying £6.7m gains realised, taking total at that stage to £16.1m.

[amid] 21/12/2017 18:32

Bogdan
interim results 18/10/17 disclosed trading gains of £9.4m to that date. There have been no more RNS's on gains until this one which says Equipment works sold for £34m which takes gains year to date to £26m (and at top end of guidance)
So gain circa £16.6m ?(26-9.4)
Still a long way to go to £65-£70m
They said Hammersmith pencilled in for £9-11m and a wind farm at £6-8m
Even if these come in there is another £20+m from elsewhere (Cannock?) to reach target. And only 2 months to go !
I am invested.

[bogdan branislov] 21/12/2017 17:19

amid, thanks for that. I had a look, hard to know whether the £10M covers the purchase or was part of the planned development cost. I will drop U and I a line and ask the question, they are usually very responsive, but then we would usually have had an announcement from U and I by now, so it may be that we will get a detailed announcement after Christmas. The development partner aspect, which clearly has added so much value, in addition to part of the investment outlay, should give U and I a very decent slice of the gains. Over 80% of the space is housing - if we then extrapolate the build number to 100% housing equivalent to gain an approximation, you get about 310 plots with planning. that equates to over £100k per plot - sounds like a heck of a deal for U and I and Parkdale, I really like this company. Bogdan

[jl9] 21/12/2017 16:58

Bottom signal!!

[amid] 21/12/2017 13:04

Bogdan
I,ve seen a post on iii bulletin board by coldascheese 16/8/2016 which seems to report the purchase of this site and says UAI's investment is capped at £10m.

[bogdan branislov] 21/12/2017 11:28

Equipment Works site sold to by U and I Group and Parkdale Developments to Telford Homes. Does anyone know what U and I's share of this was and what the original purchase price was?

[bogdan branislov] 20/12/2017 10:33

Bluerunner - even when Bogdan contact U and I about this year - below - they reassure and say that they let us know as each realisation come in - half year report say most of work in realisations complete just process of moving through to P&L and balance sheet. Do you not think it the Ironic that the Inland Homes and the Urban & Civic come up with the total fictional forecasts for end of year which they come nowhere the near achieving and nobody, including IC seem to bat an eyelid. Whereas the U and I has a track record of being open and realistic with shareholders, they reassure us and all totally plausible and yet so much the doubt and the negativity and the questioning - these a straight talk of a bunch of people, their day and that of their shareholders coming the soon. Bogdan

[bogdan branislov] 20/12/2017 10:26

Fair value would be about the 50% above TBV right now. From the 2020 the earnings will be the increasingly from PPP projects which will be nothing to do with the assets as U and I will be the development partner. The GDV of the portfolio is c£6B and rising. Don't expect the smooth growth from the real estate and regeneration company, a quiet year like the last year for the profits and TBV growth is what to expect, important to look at the underlying developments. Steady progress has been made since half year towards full year forecasts. With U and I underlying strength, for management to tell us early that this year to be a little below previous forecast would be no big of deal. However, to repeatedly reassure us that they will hit forecast again and again and then not to, whilst this would not ultimately harm company prospects, it would shred the reputation of the mgt in the eyes of the large institutional shareholders who now dominate the shareholding and between them control the company. If they were not going to hit target they would have told us long ago, believe me, they will hit target. Bogdan

[bluerunner] 19/12/2017 16:43

Speedsgh - I think it will re-rate to NAV but not sure when. Perhaps in Q2 2018 if targets are hit. H2 supposedly strong. The dividend is of some compensation though I am mainly here for the growth.

[speedsgh] 19/12/2017 15:24

Hi bluerunner - Yes, not many places you see a persistent 30% discount to NAV. That has to tell a story. I suppose the question is whether previous form is likely to change going forward. Or are shareholders being seduced by the prospect of juicy special dividend payouts over the next couple of years with continued lack of progress on the NAV front? Place your bets! As you say it looks like a few IIs (Aberforth in particular) have been doing just that.

rns 5/12/17 - J O HAMBRO CAPITAL MANAGEMENT - over 11% (from 10%)
rns 17/11/17 - Aberforth Partners - over 11% (from 10%)
rns 15/9/17 - The Wellcome Trust - over 3%
rns 15/9/17 - Aberforth Partners - over 10% (from 5%)

Basic NAV to 31/8/17 - 269p
Basic NAV to 28/2/17 - 272p
Basic NAV to 31/8/16 - 278p

EPRA NAV to 31/8/17 - 269p
EPRA NAV to 28/2/17 - 272p
EPRA NAV to 31/8/16 - 288p

[bluerunner] 19/12/2017 14:32

I agree that this has been an unspectacular holding to date.The dividend helps in that respect.Apparently there has been a substantial level of institutional buying in recent months - which may indicate better times ahead.The sooner, the better.It is certainly undervalued.