Twentyfour Select Monthl... Share Discussion Threads

[my retirement fund] 17/11/2023 17:38

Looks like a big seller out

[marktime1231] 16/11/2023 17:00

I can understand why there might be high demand for Barclays AT1 at 9.6%, and I hope SMIF have picked some up in view of its strategy to pivot towards higher quality debt at this stage in the cycle. Swiss AT1s no thank you!

Barclays raising capital because customers are starting to deploy their cash deposits? So why not pay your account holders a healthy savings rate!

Only baby steps so far but I get the idea that the prices of SMIFs underlying investments have bottomed and are starting to crawl back upwards, steady NAV progress would be very welcome indeed. That is surely the logical effect of a consensus view that base rates have topped out, it is when not if they will come down, and folks sharing SMIFs view that the economic landing will be "softish".

A strong share price performance today despite ex-div, helped by a late half-million trade at 73.8p presumably an institution, all very pleasing. A signal that, if only we could swing back to a modest premium, SMIF would be able to issue fresh stock and invest in such good opportunities.

[scburbs] 16/11/2023 12:45

Interesting new issue suggesting strong AT1 demand (at least at Barclays).

[smidge21] 15/11/2023 19:35

The chart on slide 14 is the most encouraging. The only real worry is the argument that there has been a (hostile) regime shift in policy interest rates from the Volker era. For now I'm happy to hold

[marktime1231] 15/11/2023 18:25

Thanks spangle. I agree. With SMIF delivering record dividends there is indeed an opportunity cost of not being invested in high yield credit as inflation tumbles and the soft-landing scenario looks to be the likely outcome.

Parked some SIPP cash here today in the hope NAV and share price will steadily improve in the next few months. A certain 3-4% interest from the platform versus a probable 8-10% yield here, trickling in every month,

[spangle93] 15/11/2023 10:59

New company presentation

[h0me] 14/11/2023 20:05

Do people take up the tender offer? Seems like along time to hold your money/shares.

[glavey] 09/11/2023 09:55

Best get in quick..., things could be worse.

[nerja] 07/11/2023 18:16

Thanks guys, been finger on button but no bottle at the moment to top up, some big trades after the close, bips one of my others dropped as well. Got to say can’t figure out at all why they should go down my prefs are ticking up, so my gilts ,don’t get it.

[tiltonboy] 07/11/2023 16:07

nerja,

618 shares AT traded at 70 this morning, and that's what has priced them at this level.

[marktime1231] 07/11/2023 15:50

I don't think it is the RL issue, maybe a hangover after the final dividend party. Suits me I am looking to reinvest some cash, assuming this is a temporary reverse. Edit ... or an adfvn worm, you can get 72p this arvo.

[richied] 07/11/2023 13:29

TFIF suffered a similar drop or week or so back to an unusual discount and is now back to where it was. I was tempted to add to those but am pretty fully invested in them from but of course added to this two days ago.Ha!

[nerja] 07/11/2023 13:04

Taking a bit of a kicking , the Rothesay bond of 2 % of the portfolio , which is a 350 mil issued perp from a multi billion managed company , if that’s the cause of the drop seems a puzzle to me.

[hpcg] 04/11/2023 19:38

Interesting commentary. I have no interest in any direction, though I did own this during ZIRP. I'm intrigued by the talk of 'illegal' legislation. If Parliament voted all leasehold flats to commonhold then that would be the law, that is how a parliamentary system works. I do note that trade treaties can make such decisions less clearcut, though I doubt that is the case with ground rent. I think after a thousand years it is about time we did away with this nonsense.

[ammons] 04/11/2023 14:03

".............it remains extremely unlikely that any UK government would retroactively rip up ground rent contracts........."

You are confident that Labour wont do just that?

[marktime1231] 04/11/2023 12:57

As this applies to flats where Rothesay Life is involved for all sorts of good reasons it remains extremely unlikely that any UK government would retroactively rip up ground rent contracts in favour of 999 year lease peppercorn rents, a commonhold effectively by a different name.

It will bring to an end any new trade in freeholds and their securitisation by corporate reversionary interest landlords known as ground rent grazers. Plus all sorts of nice little earners along the way in commissions and admin fees. And I hope no more lawsuits threatening forfeit of the lease either. Hoorah.

As has been debated well here, and in the press, the more likely scenario is that future lease extensions and enfranchisments will by default be settled on a 999 year peppercorn rent basis, instead of the exploitative 90-year renewable term used today, and without marriage value. But only on renewal, when individual blocks get round to doing it, rather than swept up in one big bang. It means a block can run the clock down on their old 90- or 120-year lease without being gouged, or elect to renew early on a 999-year basis without having to share any boost this might give to the value of their flat. There will still be a cost and fee to compensate the landlord for process and loss of ground rent income, otherwise it would be demonstrably unfair and or illegal to interfere with established contracts. GIC and Blackstone lawyers would be all over it, not to mention the strain on Singapore - UK relations.

And, as has been smartly pointed out, SMIFs piece of Rothesay Life is only around 2%. The risk-adjusted consequences here are fractions of fractions of a penny, or nothing at all.

Certainly makes life more interesting for Rothesay, who like Tchenguiz before have been synthesising paper capital for doing not very much, but you are overdoing it a bit wc.

[williamcooper104] 03/11/2023 17:14

Oops - they've got apparently £1.7bn out https://www.leaseholdknowledge.com/would-you-want-your-former-prudential-pension-invested-in-tchenguiz-ground-rents-by-rothesay-life-ft-reports-concerns/

[williamcooper104] 03/11/2023 17:09

They used ground rents to match their annuity liabilities and they would have gotten matching premium on it So on a default they would both lose their paper equity and take their credit losses I am not sure what their exposure is as it's possible they placed some of their exposure with other annuity writers but they were taking hundreds of millions of exposure to the asset class

[scburbs] 03/11/2023 16:40

Surely it's unlikely that RL's own balance sheet is that exposed to ground rents? More likely that it would be really bad news for the pension holders that they invested for?

[williamcooper104] 03/11/2023 16:33

Form memory those ground leases were securitised at 60-75x the ground rent So if all freeholds can be bought at say 10x then it would be v uncomfortable for RL 10x and the government can nick annington homes too

[williamcooper104] 03/11/2023 16:26

That's the one; excuse my woeful spelling