Tungsten Share Discussion Threads

[edwardt] 07/1/2016 15:40

oh have some free shares on us! how do I apply for the job???

[chemistdude] 07/1/2016 12:56

So there are 2 types: web form (used by smaller suppliers) or integrated.

Web form get 52 free as you said then a fee for each invoice over that (Fees are £1.50exVAT with minimum purchase of 25 einvoices).



Integrated: there's a one off connection fee for mapping of £900 then £900 annual subscription for 520 e-invoices. Additional e-invoices charged on a sliding scale from 69p to 23p. Also one off fee of £100 per buyer connection



Some buyers elect to pay all/part of the transaction costs for their suppliers.

I've done the easy bit, I'll let bs76/anyone else tell us how the buyer revenue works.

-----
Edit:

This article explains in detail what tungsten offers to buyers and therefore the different aspects both core and optional that generate revenue:


There was a document on g-cloud that explained the fees I will try to dig that one up.

Edit:
Here we go:

Note that this is likely pricing for public sector only:

£37,000 plus VAT annually - Excludes workflow, advanced data capture, connections to other ERP or PO systems.

Tbf this pricing isn't really much use because it won't be historic for existing buyers, I think it's low to attract councils etc.

[andrewdbl] 07/1/2016 12:15

CD, (or anyone who does know):-

How does TUNG charge

(a) Suppliers

I think they get 52 free and then there is a charge ~£1 per invoice

(b) Buyers

I think there is a fixed cost and then £? per invoice
- or is it just a fixed cost

[bs76] 07/1/2016 10:52

Thx for the info chemistdude..

"For info, please note that Nestec and Nespresso, two subsidiaries of Nestlé based in Switzerland, will soon be connected to Tungsten Network."

Does that mean two new buyers?

[chemistdude] 07/1/2016 09:33

More Nestlé onboarding going on (they intend to use Tungsten in all territories for all invoices):
(published 2 days ago).

$230bn market cap/$100bn sales; I wonder what their total invoiced capex must be....gotta be at least a quarter of that eh? Perhaps one of the "Fab Four" I'd have thought?

[andrewdbl] 06/1/2016 11:52

O/T but on Odey...
Things are not that clear - h/t to Izzy Kaminska in alphaville today:

"It might be cause for schadenfreude that Mr Odey went public with his bet against Home Retail in December, when the shares were around 105p. (At pixel time they are 137p.) What might be overlooked is that Odey Asset Management is also short Sainsbury, disclosing a 0.95 per cent position just before Christmas, which makes a useful (and probably accidental) hedge."

As SBRY share price dropped by ~20p to ~240 as HOME increased by 30% or so
4652 * 0.0095 * 20 / 240 = ~3.7m improvement

and HOME is down 5% today so far.

[bs76] 05/1/2016 16:44

Both Odey and JP

Odey position went down by £7.1m in a day
JP position went down by £3.1m in a day

unless they closed after the news in the morning

[edwardt] 05/1/2016 16:30

odey having a bad day on his home retail short! whoops

[bs76] 05/1/2016 11:29

Matt and TW comment on that gold bear discussion
and Paul comment in his blog "out of cash by the summer of 2016"

Is it a coincidence that their comments are matching? :)They all reach to the same conclusion independently.

And these was made after bank sell news..

[bs76] 05/1/2016 11:24

Thx manics for the info. I didn't know that Tung contacted paul

""As per the results announcement, Tungsten’s actual cash position was £39.7m, not £15.9m as stated. Understand that this confusion might have come because the bank cash on the balance sheet has moved to another line for assets for sale. As such, the ‘high rate of cash burn’ comment isn’t necessarily fair.There was an injection from shareholders of approx. 17m , so in the first 6 months of this financial year the burn rate is approximately 1.1m a month." - See more at: hxxp://www.stockopedia.com/content/small-cap-value-report-16-dec-2015-bon-tung-114888/?page=2#comments"

[chemistdude] 05/1/2016 11:21

I have just spoken to Rob at Neustria RE: Capital Markets Day.

Details are still being finalised but as far as he is aware it will be open to both private as well as institutional investors.

I'm quite happy to attend this and report back to the community (whether I have the skill/experience is another matter). A few of you have mentioned perhaps also attending and I'd be grateful if you could get in touch to coordinate.

[edwardt] 05/1/2016 10:34

actually quite a good note from Edison which is rare imo. it will be interesting to know the take up of insight under tickler period where discounted charges applied. I am not sure Edison are right on revenue split with insight but they must have taken management guidance here? no mention of this on the call...

[tradermel] 05/1/2016 08:09

I find it strange anyone taking any notice of TW. The guy is bankrupt of credibility and is so often wrong its untrue. The blatant lies he tells about losses he makes on shares trying to spin that he sold a loser when it was just impossible to have done so is terrible.

[andrewdbl] 04/1/2016 21:24

On the youtube link.

In the same way that TW rightly points out the long bias in all bbs - not just this one,
it is only fair to point out that the name of the conference was 'gold and bears'.
They _were_ right a year ago, but clearly had not listened to the December update.
Unless edison's, bs76's, mine and many others maths are incorrect they will not be out of cash in June 16 (Is there a Canaccord update?)

It must be said being right is cold comfort compared to being shown to be so and my loss is a constant source of angst.

[bs76] 04/1/2016 17:04

Just gone through 11 page edison report which is way better than canaccord.

Value per share (p) 100

[manics] 04/1/2016 15:52

Thanks andrewbl & bs76 for the (as always) quality input today. Will look forward to digesting tonight.

[edwardt] 04/1/2016 14:55

does mr truell landing a massive intro constitute an act of god?! good work though...

[andrewdbl] 04/1/2016 14:35

As said above, not an accountant - and prefer to see these things in spreadsheet form, so here is my guess to end FY 15/16 (30/04/16)



... which of course closely ties in with what they said in the earnings call.

Any criticism welcome.

Basically my guesses say that on 30/4/16 they will end up with ~33m cash (~8m in the Company and ~25m in TUNG bank) and are burning ~1.1m per month.
(I see BS76 says 40m, so on past performance 36.5m is the right answer)

Reading this and then thinking about the earnings call and the events of the last year, I am increasingly sure

1
They have been horribly burnt on implementation processes / estimates etc and in a fairly natural reaction are being rather careful on earnings guidance / announcements

2
Excepting acts of god, they will hit breakeven at some point 01/05/16-30/04/17.

Having attempted to provide analysis, now the attempt to prevent groupthink:-

I think it is fairly clear that can break even.
However, the share price is a reflection of future profits - I have no idea what they could be and how they will grow (or not).
Comments on the proverbial.

[manics] 04/1/2016 09:07

"...complete fallacy".



8(

[bs76] 03/1/2016 21:13

andrewdbl, I just saw TW gold bear discussion. He reckons TUNG will be Zero in June and in his discussion with Matt, they were trying to convince others that no big player will ever buy TUNG because it's not increasing market share. Their argument didn't sound convincing.

On Cash

In Bank,
FY15 - Cash:19.5m, Invoice Receivables:6.3m => Total:25.8m
1H-FY16 - Cash:23.8m, Invoice Receivables: 1.3m => Total:25.1m
As expected Invoice receivable amount moved back to cash as financing got shifted to Insight and I assume remaining 1.3m will be back soon as well. Morever they will get a premium of £4.9m on PRA approval on transfer of bank

In Group
FY15- Cash:13.1m + raising 16.7m = Total:29.8m
1H-FY16- Cash:15.9m
The difference of cash is EBITDA loss: 9.5m (cashburn) , Trade Receivables increased by 1.9m and Trade payables reduced by 2.1m

The difference between Trade Receivables and payables in 1H-FY16 is 3.8m which I believe are liquid assets similar to Invoice receivables.

Summarize
FY15- Cash:49.3m and liquid assets:6.3 => Total:55.6m
1H-FY16- Cash:39.7, Liquid assets: 1.3+3.8 = 5.1m and premium on sale of bank(on PRA approval)=4.9m => Total:49.7m

So the question is can they burn 49.7m in 8 months ? when current cash burn is 1.5m per month and is reducing

or

the other question raised in gold bear discussion about cash raise at end of FY16 to get signed off by auditors. First half EBITA loss of 9.5m and let's assume second half is same. In that case as of FY16 cash +liquid assets will be 49.7-9.5=£40.2m.