Tritax Eurobox Share Discussion Threads

[rimau1] 19/1/2024 13:43

I'll save you a few hours of your weekend Skinny; Google "Germany" and "Real estate"

[skinny] 19/1/2024 13:33

Thanks - I'll catch up over the weekend, but a cursory glance highlights this as my worst REIT YTD.

[riverman77] 19/1/2024 13:02

Rates have been rising again since start of the year so REITs been weak. EBOX seems worse hit than others, which may be due to signs of economic slowdown in Europe, although not aware of anything company specific.
Customer concentration a bit higher than I'd like with Mango (13%), Puma (7%) and Wayfair (7%) ones to keep an eye on. Haven't looked at these companies so not sure if they are experiencing any problems, although presumably EBOX would be able to relet any space if needed as demand seems quite robust.

[skinny] 19/1/2024 12:44

I'm just back from 2 weeks holiday - anything specific here or sector wide?

[hpcg] 19/1/2024 12:31

Wayfair has just announced a decent size redundancy round, including 19% at corporate. Excellent news for us.

[riverman77] 19/1/2024 09:47

Every REIT up strongly this morning...apart from good old EBOX. Slightly irritating as was on the brink of selling a couple of weeks ago when it was trading around 62p but for some reason never got around to it. Good time to top up though.

[hpcg] 17/1/2024 16:30

Farrugla - hence the big move up in November when the Fed signalled a pause. That was taken to be a halt. The sells here are overdone in my opinion. I have added cautiously to BOXE on spreadbets, June contract. Would prefer to wait until oversold on my measures to add more substantially. My interest rate view is much closer to consensus than either the bulls or bears. That isn't to say consensus will be correct, but it just calls for modest reductions so even if the ECB doesn't cut at all it will hardly be wrong.

[my retirement fund] 17/1/2024 14:48

Having forgone the last dividend and sold out at 59p I make my maiden purchase at 52.8p so back in with you chaps

[farrugia] 17/1/2024 13:23

so when they start falling - they should benefit MORE than other stocks? Any others like this? I'm however wary as the USA markets are super overheated at the moment.

[hpcg] 17/1/2024 12:56

The real risk in all REITs is that the rise in interest payments as rates rise is orders of magnitude greater than increases in rent because of inflation:

100% gearing
debt 1000
building value 1000
rent 100
interest on debt at 1% == 10
profit 90

with inflation
interest on debt at 5% == 50
rent == 105
profit 55

(extreme for effect)

EBOX/BOXE has some long term cheap debt, has paid down expensive floating debt with asset sales, and operates in a territory with low inflation and rates, has few voids, and is in a growing sector. Operational risk from concentration in Mango and Wayfair is bigger than financial IMO.

[farrugia] 17/1/2024 12:32

What are the real risks here? And are there any businesses like this that may be worth considering as an investment on the expectation that interest rates might have topped up?

[chucko1] 17/1/2024 10:34

Hanging its chin out there! Took a swing.

[williamcooper104] 17/1/2024 10:16

Last time the share price was weak the 26 bond was at 6.5-7 It's now yielding 4.7

[makinbuks] 04/1/2024 15:03

It does illustrate that they are conservative in their modelling of potential developments. They have got this away on terms better than the assumptions in a difficult market

[williamcooper104] 04/1/2024 11:55

A developer sells them an asset assuming that it's built (the developer takes that risk but EBOX fund it getting a pretend coupon return on their funding) the price that ebox will pay at practical completion of the asset will be dependent on an assumed level of rent - that's the underwritten rent So that the rents achieved are 20 percent higher is great, albeit that will largely now be accounted in their valuations

[garbetklb] 04/1/2024 11:45

Showing my ignorance..... What does "the underwrite level" mean in this context?
Thanks!

[williamcooper104] 04/1/2024 10:08

Yes it's small, but more in the way of recent constant good news flow

[loglorry1] 04/1/2024 09:46

Since you asked WC the only thing is that it's small. 1.2% of ERV aint much. Better than a kick in the goolies though.

[williamcooper104] 04/1/2024 09:13

What not to like

[skinny] 04/1/2024 07:01

Summary

-- The letting is for the 5,007 sqm unit at the Company's 13,611 sqm two-unit development, well-located close to Arlanda airport, an established logistics and industrial hub 32km north of Stockholm .

-- The five-year green lease will commence in March 2024, with 100% CPI indexation, reviewed annually and includes a further five-year extension option.

-- The rent agreed is 3% above the Estimated Rental Value (ERV) as at September 2023 and 20% above the underwrite level.

-- The building includes electric vehicle charging and other sustainability features that reduce its environmental impact, along with the opportunity for a roof-mounted solar PV scheme. The development is targeting a BREEAM Very Good rating.

-- The combination of this letting and the recent second letting at Settimo Torinese reduces the portfolio ERV vacancy rate to 4.3%, down from 5.5% at 30 September 2023.

[williamcooper104] 03/1/2024 15:01

On offices I've been looking at the CPI PG bonds - they've been short attacked (muddy waters) and are yielding 12-13 for senior unsecured and 16 for perpetual juniors (at c28 cents so plenty of capital value upside) Still investment grade rated c50 LTV (juniors are BB) CPI have responded well to Muddy Waters

[skyship] 03/1/2024 14:55

Wc - Thnx for that - exactly the same reasoning for my recent purchases of CLI.

A E2.1bn portfolio trading at a cavernous 65% discount. The Mortstedt family control 60%; and might well be tempted at a mere 30% discount - ie 204p versus the current 102p! A nice 100% uplift.

That's not all - a well-covered 7.95p dividend delivers a 7.8% yield whilst you await events...

Made it my Tip for 2024 on my JDT thread.

[williamcooper104] 03/1/2024 13:28

SureBoxed inThe market may still be in a cagey place, but there is no shortage of capital that has been raised and needs deploying in the private equity world. And with the woes of the market most clearly reflected by public companies, take-privates are an obvious place to anticipate eye-catching deals this year.One candidate that the cashmere jumper brigade is likely to be poring over is Tritax EuroBox. With a portfolio valued at €1.6bn, it would be a chunky enough opportunity to get the hearts racing for those that have raised fresh vehicles and want to really get cracking.Trading at a persistent discount to NAV of around 30%, sceptics highlight its 46% exposure by value to Germany where – in general – book values have been far slower to truly reflect the realities of the market.Raising finance for a multi-jurisdiction deal such as EuroBox would be far from straightforward, and a merger with in-limbo cousin firm Abrdn European Logistics Income Fund (Abrdn is the manager of both) may end up being another alternative open to management. But with logistics still one of the most in-demand sectors, despite its relative fall from grace, a bid may well end up being forthcoming soon enough.

[skyship] 03/1/2024 13:21

Wc - could you perhaps post that extract...