Tritax Eurobox Share Discussion Threads

[skyship] 05/12/2023 13:58

Interesting to look at the posts mid-October. CC2014 challenging us all and disbelieving the great value in EBOX. Preferring SEIT to EBOX. SEIT unch.; EBOX up 25%! Hopefully he did actually ditch the former and got onboard here...


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[hpcg] 05/12/2023 13:49

Some sales are forced, they might have needed liquidity from somewhere or anywhere. It is something I keep to mind at extreme lows. There is a danger of looking for complex or hidden reasons for price action when there are simple ones. Bar spread bets I am not trading mine and certainly not below (my judgement of) fair value.

[skyship] 05/12/2023 13:42

Top-sliced a few at 58.33p - a great 30% up from the lows!

Just who was the wally fund manager selling all down there???

[williamcooper104] 05/12/2023 09:47

YTM on the 25 bond (coupon 0.95) is now 5.02 Just a few months ago it got to 7.1

[williamcooper104] 05/12/2023 09:43

7 including extensions

[skinny] 05/12/2023 09:26

Again - Well done to those that bought near the lows!

Somewhat academic now, but the link in post 1187 corrected.

[riverman77] 05/12/2023 09:23

Looks pretty solid. NAV flat over the period, in contrast to some on here that were expecting another sharp fall. Dividend now fully covered, although not worked out if that will still be the case post the recent sales?

[wskill] 05/12/2023 09:20

Rental growth of 4.5% should cover the refinance in 2025 and 2026 EBOX is definitely one of my safer investments all looking good to me.

[williamcooper104] 05/12/2023 08:23

Will dig through High level though management have staked their credibility on keeping the divi So either it survives (or is only shaved a bit) the 2025 bond maturity or else we then soon get NAV realisation As we know NAV is actually real NAV

[hpcg] 05/12/2023 08:12

Rental growth of 4.5%, Cost of debt EUR10m at an average cost of debt of 1.3%. Dividend cost is EUR40m

From the financial review section

Post period end, we renewed some of our interest rate caps expiring in October 2023. We bought a €40 million portion with a two-year maturity co-terminus with the remaining term of the RCF and a €40 million portion to match our short-term RCF requirement pending the full execution of the disposal programme. Reflecting current financing conditions, the weighted average strike price of these caps is 2.72% (previously 0.65%). Looking ahead to FY24, we expect the total cost of debt to be in the range of 1.25% and 1.50%, subject to drawdowns on the RCF.

It needs some proper modelling for what happens to money available for distribution at a cost of debt of 2.7% across the board (top end for the forseeable next few years IMO). They would still be attractive positive returns clearly.

Anyway, it will take a while to properly review.

[loglorry1] 05/12/2023 08:02

Yes just the refi risk of the cheap green bond but its years away.

[skyship] 05/12/2023 07:22

All looks pretty good.

EPRA NAV at 87.7p is far higher than I'd estimated - down just 2.7% from the Mar'23 figure of 90.13p.

Divi covered 110% by EPS.

[nickrl] 01/12/2023 20:40

Swedish site was E1.25 rental income. With the two sales plus the German site a few months ago will have eliminated the RCF and give them cE50m extra cash no need to pay down any more debt given its current v.low rates.

[spectoacc] 01/12/2023 14:07

Ha ha definitely some downsides - but do think a lot in the price down here, best of luck.

[williamcooper104] 01/12/2023 13:59

There's still a risk to the divi But if it does get cut then it's likely strategic review time So you either get the divi long term (albeit no growth for c4-5 years, or a capital gain and a divi for most of while you wait for that

[frazboy] 01/12/2023 13:45

Bought my first tranche here today for my SIPP following on from the recent news-flow and the contributions of the posters. I decided that if ever I see a positive update from a company and Specto doesn't see a downside then I'll go all-in :-) Hoping for a total 20% return over the next 12 months. All things considered I would have bought earlier but the hassle of having to call II has got in the way. They need to sort that out.

[holts] 01/12/2023 10:54

You mean they overpaid

[wskill] 01/12/2023 10:07

Doing what they said would be done,that will do for me doubled my SIPP holding today xd soon as well,quarter 4 dividend review to look forward to as well.

[williamcooper104] 01/12/2023 09:26

Also if their bonds are yielding 5.2 then getting 6 something as a development yield isn't really worth it

[williamcooper104] 01/12/2023 09:21

14 percent above a QE pumped up value is excellent

[hpcg] 01/12/2023 09:18

I would have thought the just-sold Swedish site was one of their weakest, as did their appraisers given how far down it had been marked. This suggests, at the very least in this case, that location is attractive or more than just sheds. I'm also pretty OK with the economics of redevelopment not being so positive. That means less competition down the line, a deficit rather than a surplus of supply. I'm comfortable with the redevelopment aspect slowing for a period as a period of relative stability helps to understand the rental aspect a bit better.

[chucko1] 01/12/2023 08:53

True, although the requirement to sell, and the actuality of achieving it at a respectable price and therefore solidify the balance sheet trumps most or all other considerations in the current context.

These sorts of sales have outsized long term value, when one considers the effect of risk aversion on its current share price. (and applies to several others).

[spectoacc] 01/12/2023 08:45

I like EBOX, & I think they're doing better than most in managing risk & the b/s, but as a slight caveat to the bullishness:

"- - Since acquisition, market conditions have weakened, with the expected returns from the development not now as compelling...".


What does that say about the rest of the portfolio.

All in the price already I'd say, and a positive they're able to exit some of the "..Not as compelling.." holdings. But shows how things have changed.

[hpcg] 01/12/2023 08:37

LG - there was income to Aug 2023. Since then it has been void / held for development. So not only does it increase BV but it has reduced cash needs and removed a currently non-income producing asset from the portfolio.

I know I'm looking forward, but it will be interesting to see revenue for H1 of the current year versus the H2 we will see on Tuesday. Two of the sales, this and Hammersbach, will be absent from the current half, while Bochum will have contributed for just 2 months.