Results and div notice due soon? |
Myspace is 5% of the assets by revenue, 21 / 493 and irrelevant to assets by NAV. So at risk is rent for perhaps half a year of 5%. That isn't really significant. However it would be wise to assume credit losses are a part of the business model so assuming 95% of income would account for that. NAV will look after itself over time, so a cash flow statement that carries within it 5% of rents unpaid gives a realistic perspective of the amounts available for dividends.
I have work to do on the debts attached to assets; are they amortising or interest only. Though with equity at 2/3 of assets it is a minor issue. I need to know what is provisioned for more significant works. Internals are covered by the lessee. so it is the bigger ticket items, of which replacement windows and repointing would be the top items. Significant roofing costs well beyond my investment horizon. |
BLND is on leas if a discount, but it's still on a c35% discount CLI and RGL are on wider discounts than SOHO So the discount itself isn't reason enough to be cautious The balance sheet is excellent The share price hasn't recovered from the fall out over HOME reit CVA are a pain; but they don't necessarily take that long to get through c11x FFO on low leverage with little beta to the wider economy |
william cooper
It`s the CVA that MYSPACE wishes to do . these can get very messy .
Discount to NAV is massive !
do you think it is because all of the Market experts have missed something or do you think that they believe that those properties will fetch nowhere near that , if they have to be sold ? |
loglorry
My Space is an agency . SOHO owns the properties and rents them to Myspace , Myspace gets all of it`s money off the Government . Every tenant with MYSPACE is on the dole .
This is not specific to SOHO and Myspace , it is how it works with every single housing provider and Agency .
MYSPACE , YMCA, FRAMEWORK, SHELTER ,CORNERHOUSE, NACRO, etc etc etc .
They all work to the same script |
From the last RNS : "The Company has 34 properties let to My Space. As cited in the 21 November 2024 announcement, My Space has not paid any rent or other sums due since June 2024 in respect of those properties. "
It literally says My Space were to pay SOHO rents rather than collecting them from the local authority or tenant (which is what I think you mean by HMO). There's also a nice flow diagram of how it all works on their presentations.
SOHO own the properties we know this because they have secured debt against them.
Please short as many as you can. |
The MySpace issue is a long standing issue and is well priced into the share price The balance sheet is sound, the divi covered and high plus the discount to NAV is to far of 50% There's better shorts about |
I was going to start a drip feed into this but I may short soon ?
Voluntary arrangements can take an very long time in the courts to sort out. could be a drag on company performance ?? |
Soho make no mention that the my space properties are now with another provider .
They said they are working with Myspace to try and ensure a smooth transition .
I have a little knowledge of how Social housing and emergency accommodation works .
The rent payment is completely separate from services payments .
Rent for emergency accommodation used to be 260 pound per week per room . Any additional services required by vulnerable tenants are a completely different payment .
anybody who cant make a HMO pay must be corrupt . |
Gilt yields and the orange man Not been great for most REITs |
Disappointing start to 2025 under the new management and share price below 60p. Hoping for better but it could be a fools errand. |
Assuming the My Space properties are now managed properly and do provide a rental stream under the new manager won't this now increase divi cover?
That's the bit I was a little unsure of. |
That's it - just as with care homes years ago - the trick is to say that the income is government backed - which is true - but that just means your tenant won't have a bad debt - doesn't mean you won't get paid your rent as you're taking operating risk on your tenant being able to run the services and pay you your rent Soho isn't a total fraud like HOME but it's still had a few problems |
I'm not 100% sure but I think Gov paid MySpace to provide housing and related services. From that MySpace pay rents to SOHO. Apparently MySpace couldn't afford the rent after supplying the services so it all collapsed. I don't think SOHO got paid rent directly from the Gov otherwise obviously SOHO would just sue HMG for what they are owed. Appols if this is incorrect but I think it's close.
The divi is covered without MySpace and the properties have been moved to a new manager. |
MySpace is in administration, hardly any surprises here but where did the money go? |
Loglorry1
The Housing will always be provided as long as the Welfare system doesn`t collapse ?
People do not realise just how much housing is paid for by Welfare payments .
The vast majority of vulnerable people are drug addicts and some additional payments for support in that area are very easily axed .
In Theory SOHO will still get their money because it will affect the agencies but not the actual Landlord .
All I`m saying is, How profitable will smaller agencies be, if additional payments above actual rent , are axed ?
I have been through SOHO property portfolio on their Website and some of those HMO`S are your bog standard rooms for addicts and Prisoner`s out on Licence etc .
Last one with regard to MYSPACE , how the hell haven`t they been done for fraud ?
The monies for the rents have been paid for by the Taxpayer ( about £260 per room , per week )
If they are not paying their rent to SOHO , Who is having all that Tax money ? |
I really can't see Labour not providing the sort housing provided by SOHO. There are so many other easier targets. |
I would like to invest here .
The only problem I think brewing, is Reeves announcement that she is going to slash Welfare spending on Sick benefits .
Soho always states that they go for housing that provides the additional support .
These additional payments apply to a whole raft of things , some of them are utter Tosh as well .
If Reeves pulls the rug on some of them ? How are the agencies then placed Profitability wise ?
Will that then lead to more rent problems ?
Also if a building suddenly loses x amount in additional Taxpayer support payments , how will that affect asset values ?
Just my thoughts |
I suspect they are at quite an advanced stage with a transfer to Inclusion if they are are bothering with holding a General Meeting to facilitate it.
On the face of it good news if they can resolve the MySpace issue within the next two or three months. |
Works well providing they keep paying - feels like Tesco and Sainsbury's pose less risk on that front than social housing providers but I could be wrong.How comfortable are we with the NAV here? Looks like a bargain but the fact Triplepoint have been involved doesn't fill me with confidence... |
I guess today's announcement will allow them to transfer the MySpace assets to their biggest approved provider Inclusion. That would be about 35% of total assets. That is quite a concentration risk or in other words having most of your eggs in one basket.
However, Supermarket Income REIT who they also manage has most of their assets with sainsbury and Tesco and that arrangement works well.
Disappointing to have no income from MySpace for the best part of a year. |
Very disappointed. But with the turmoil in the gilts market and a long term risk free return of ~5% it's not so surprising. |
Hmm ..not a great start to the new year for the sp |
Huh, I bought TSLA shares, but at least I have liquidity! |
I just hope I can get back my deposit on the private jet. |
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