Social Housing Reit Share Discussion Threads

[indalo] 28/9/2023 11:14

Topped up. Good report out from Edison. If they are right and earnings recover (even allowing for a 20% revenue reduction on the problem accounts), and they increase the divi modestly then this now trades on an 11% forward yield. Crazy.

[badtime] 27/9/2023 09:37

That mean u r off ...it's a good day

[superiorshares] 27/9/2023 06:40

Bedtime
Yawning Rich
See ya Luvvies xx

[superiorshares] 26/9/2023 21:13

Once again I'm correct

Don't fight the Fed
Don't fight
SS

[badtime] 19/9/2023 13:07

Which has now altered

[badtime] 19/9/2023 09:24

Edit * mid fifties

[badtime] 19/9/2023 09:24

I see slightly above mid sixties ..not far from when you made your prediction..shrug

[cruelladeville] 19/9/2023 08:14

In fact, many share holders were robbed might be one way of looking at CSH. I really don't want the same to happen here.

[spectoacc] 19/9/2023 07:17

Have you ever seen a bidder do that, in any listed sector? I haven't.

CSH got taken out by the owner of their investment manager. They'd likely have run the slide rule over SOHO too, but they got CSH at a decent discount.

[superiorshares] 18/9/2023 18:55

The low 50s I predicted is almost here .
The thing with the civitas bid , why didn't the bidder gobble up soho at the same time ?

[cruelladeville] 14/9/2023 09:03

Yes, I think the worst is behind SOHO. It's a buy.

[spectoacc] 14/9/2023 07:33

Only Hold eh.

[cwa1] 14/9/2023 07:27

Found it to save you posting:-

Ticker: SONG

Share price at close: 93p

Update: Triple Point Social Housing
This is another trust to have seen its most direct rival fall to a bid, in this case for Civitas Social Housing at 80p a share, a premium of 44pc to the previous share price. The takeover of Civitas has already been completed and the shares no longer trade on the stock market.

The offer price represented a 26.7pc discount to the trust’s NAV at the time. If we apply the same discount to Triple Point Social Housing’s NAV of 111.31p we arrive at a share price of 81.6p.

The current share price is only 55.7p and the gap between the two figures is doubtless due in part to the long-running series of interventions by regulators in the social housing arena and the consequent reputational damage done to the trusts.

Meanwhile Triple Point continues to pay its generous dividend at a targeted level of 5.46p this year, which represents a yield of 9.8pc, so investors are being well rewarded while they wait for improvement in the share price, whether from a bid or otherwise.

Questor says: hold

Ticker: SOHO

Share price at close: 55.7p

[cwa1] 14/9/2023 07:16

Any chance of posting it on here to save me from having to hunt it down please? ;-)

XD this morning. 1.37p, paid 29/9

[spectoacc] 14/9/2023 07:15

Thanks. Tipping it on XD day is a bit iffy.

[cruelladeville] 14/9/2023 07:13

Positive commentary from Questor in the Telegraph this morning, but nothing we didn't already know. Personally, I hope there isn't a bid for SOHO. There's a huge unmet demand in the UK and nobody doing anything about it.

[spectoacc] 12/9/2023 14:36

They seem committed to the divi, & the recent asset sales will bolster that, and likely buy backs ahead. All positives, with the sole negative of tenant risk - resolving recent issues, and not finding more.

Feels like a lot in the price down here, and paid to wait, but would say that. Good luck.

[cwa1] 12/9/2023 14:26

Taken a few at 55.3p. Not suggesting this is the Holy Grail, it ain't, but I'm hoping that there's enough spare room for error in the price already to make it worth a punt. IF the dividend is paid it yields pretty impressively too. We'll see. Fingers crossed

[spectoacc] 07/9/2023 15:34

Seems a fair summary - the continuing MySpace palava is a hassle, but there's definite positives and still the c.£7.6m to deploy, perhaps on buy backs.

[badtime] 07/9/2023 14:36

At this moment in time, not adding, not selling

[indalo] 07/9/2023 13:24

I'm reassured by the update;

- would be good to see them move some properties to alternative approved providers on like-for-like rental terms to demonstrate that there is demand and that it can be done.
- I think the inflation linked rents more than offsets the current negative divi' cover and refinance risk (which is ten years away - and who knows, rates may be back to 3% by then anyway!)
- Structural demand remains strong.
- CSH buyout underlines investor appetite for social housing.
- Share buyback would be odd if they plan to clip the divi. My best guess now is that the divi will be maintained next year, or potentially increased a little if the troublesome providers are resolved (one way or another).

Oh, and I'm enjoying the 2.5% quarterly dividends! I feel that the income and prospects easily outweigh the risks here.

[giltedge1] 07/9/2023 10:06

Credit Risk, only worry here, but can't see disadvantaged clients, thrown on the street, new provider will step in, may lose a few months rent, I presume. Cash flow covered dividend & interest, even though two clients in arrears. fitch gives a credit rating A, even ftse 100 companies have lower, BT example BBB. I am not a holder but looks a great buy.

[chucko1] 07/9/2023 09:41

At rent rises of inflation flat, and assuming average inflation of 4% the next 10 years, dividend cover increases substantially over time (until at least the next refinancing in 10 years!).

The Chairman's commentary indicates as much, unsurprisingly.

0.91x cover if they add back in rent not paid, but expected to be paid. But let's see in the short term how they get on sorting out the two problem "clients".

Selling out at this point seems like abject surrender to me!

[riverman77] 07/9/2023 08:35

Agree and sold out this morning. Nothing drastically wrong, but just don't like nasty surprises and always a risk here that something else goes wrong with one of their providers, reducing dividend cover even further. It's cheap no doubt, but lots of other much more robust REITs on only slightly wider discounts (EBOX, SREI, etc).