Triple Point Social Hous... Share Discussion Threads

[wskill] 13/2/2023 16:42

Not too sure we will see HOME return any time soon after this update,but on that happy note I doubled up my holding in SOHO today .

[cruelladeville] 10/2/2023 17:33

Looking hopeful the trajectory here now is north for the shares?

[cruelladeville] 08/2/2023 20:44

Sadly, I think the short sellers were highly justified in what they did at HOME. Not often I think that.

[wskill] 08/2/2023 14:30

Hopefully when HOME return to the market that will be the end ,of course they should remove HOME management top to bottom for being asleep at the wheel I am sure someone knew what was going on .

[cruelladeville] 08/2/2023 10:52

Anyone thinking the worst has past now here? There's been ample time for more bad news to come out if there is any.

[dlp6666] 06/2/2023 17:39

From James Carthew (hxxps://citywire.com/investment-trust-insider/news/james-carthew-choppy-outlook-for-income-folk/a2408536)

"SOHO is experiencing problems with rent collection from a couple of tenants, which could put a spanner in the works. If those are sorted out, by reassigning the leases perhaps, the shares look cheap on a 54% discount and 10%+ yield"

[brwo349] 06/2/2023 13:15

I looked at this today and couldn't help buying in. I was especially interested in the following part of the update:-


The Board continues to actively engage with its shareholders and is committed to addressing the current discount to the Company's Net Asset Value. In order to deliver value to shareholders, the Board and Manager are exploring making accretive share buybacks outside of a close period and the potential sale of a portfolio of the Group's properties. If the Group considered that a potential sale of a portfolio would be in the best interests of its shareholders, and conditional on such a transaction not having a material adverse impact on the Group's leverage position, the Board would seek to return capital from such a sale to its shareholders.

Chris Phillips, Chair of SOHO, said: "The Board recognises the ongoing resilience of the Company's portfolio, notwithstanding the sector-wide pressures social housing providers are experiencing. SOHO's focus on Specialised Supported Housing, and excess demand for more homes underpins our confidence in the Group's outlook. The proposed amendments to existing lease clauses are aimed at strengthening the compliance of the Company's Registered Provider partners. The Board and the Manager are focused on delivering value to shareholders, and are exploring making accretive share buybacks and the potential sale of a portfolio of the Group's properties."

[dlp6666] 03/2/2023 13:13

Yes, I've read the whole of the RNS and feel quite encouraged - to the extent I've increased my holding by c.30%!

Although Liberum prefer Civitas, I think these will turn out to be a reasonable investment when all the current uncertainty subsides, given the underlying demand for this 'specialist' type of social housing.

Certainly this year's dividend (c.10%) has been confirmed for the shorter term until then.

[cruelladeville] 03/2/2023 11:41

I see nothing there to change my mind SOHO is a bargain. There's been ample opportunities for the company to release more bad news. I'm becoming more convinced the bad news us pretty much out there. Probable falls in NAV to come. But they are already in the massive discount?

[davebowler] 03/2/2023 09:59

Liberum;
Trading update - two lessees in arrears

Mkt Cap £205m | Share price 50.8p | Prem/(disc) -54.5% | Div yield 10.7%

Event

Triple Point Social Housing REIT's trading update notes that 91.7% of the rent due at 31 December 2022 was collected (Dec 21: 99.8%). Two out of the 27 lessees were in rent arrears (My Space and Parasol Homes - combined 17.5% of rent roll). The portfolio recorded a weighted average rent increase of 6.7% in the calendar year, with 92.6% of the leases linked to CPI and the balance linked to 7.4% linked to RPI. SOHO notes that 5.1% of the leases have caps, with a 7% cap to be applied to its Registered Provider leases in 2023. SOHO re-iterated its commitment to the 5.46p dividend for the year.

SOHO is seeking to introduce a risk-sharing clause into existing leases in Q2 2023 for enhanced compliance with the Regulator of Social Housing's standards.

Rent arrears update

Two out of the 27 lessees were in rent arrears, with SOHO noting the following:

My Space (7.9% of rent roll) - Due to solvency concerns, the manager is looking to shift properties to alternate providers. It is noted that were My Space to enter administration, this would impact c.38% of the value of properties let to My Space or 2.4% of SOHO's total valuation.
Parasol Homes (9.6% of rent roll) - failed to pay all rent due in H2 2022. The manager is working on a repayment plan.
Liberum view

Discounts applied to the social housing sector have increased by c.20 percentage points since the second half of November 2022, led mostly by Home REIT and more recent newsflow around rent rolls and the regulator for social housing's view that many of My Space's tenants did not meet its definition of specialised supported housing. Out of the two social housing trusts with exposure to My Space, Civitas Social Housing has lower exposure (1.3% of rent roll) and is our preferred fund in the sector.

[cruelladeville] 02/2/2023 13:11

Hopefully it'll stick above 50p and move up from here. As long as there's no more bad news, it's a bargain.

[dlp6666] 02/2/2023 12:06

Not seeing the recent uptick witnessed at CSH, though ...

[cruelladeville] 02/2/2023 11:20

Hoping the worst here has past......?

[cruelladeville] 30/1/2023 18:05

Has the market seen real value here at last?

[cruelladeville] 27/1/2023 15:09

Well, someone must be buying today.

[cruelladeville] 27/1/2023 08:52

Who knows? Presumably the Telegraph did some due diligence of it's own before deciding to tell readers to hold rather than sell?

[dlp6666] 26/1/2023 21:40

To quote from the Telegraph article on 19th January:

"The regulator has decided that most of My Space’s tenants do not meet the definition of specialised supported housing; the key question is whether the same applies to Triple Point’s other tenants. The trust’s Max Shenkman tells Questor he believes it does not.

On this basis its income should be largely secure (My Space accounts for 7.5pc of its assets, while a replacement tenant could be found). And the discount prices in an awful lot of bad news. Hold."

But can we necessarily trust what Shenkman says?

[cruelladeville] 26/1/2023 18:54

Understood. I can't decide if this share is a total bargain or a slow motion disaster!

[hybrasil] 26/1/2023 17:08

You are right as to the covenants.

It’s just generally an awful sign in property type companies.
Look at inland for example

[cruelladeville] 26/1/2023 13:37

Agreed. But debt covenants are written against NAV, not market capitalisation. AFAIK, anyway. So, there's not an issue there.

[hybrasil] 26/1/2023 11:02

Net debt now exceeds market cap.

Not good in a property co

[cruelladeville] 26/1/2023 10:19

Silence from SOHO is a bit concerning. But what can they say? This is either the next scandal or a screaming buy. No idea which.

[hybrasil] 26/1/2023 06:29

Foxtrot Oscar - fidelis

[hindsight] 25/1/2023 19:05

The surprisingly low borrow fee rate is putting me off taking a long punt here