Triple Point Energy Tran... Share Discussion Threads

[erstwhile2] 12/12/2024 08:02

The Hydro remaining assets seem massively overvalued in NAV, I would expect it to achieve around current share price only in liquidation. It is just discounted FiTs and something small for the MWh sales if in excess of opex. FiTs expire in 9-10y so like the solar funds the run of river hydro assets are a decaying annuity. They also had it on a ridiculous low discount rate as they played pass the parcel between inhouse funds - think TENT got it from the Triple Point VCTs. No friendly inhouse bagholder this time, else it would already be done like the battery loans to Triple Point leasing.

[tigerbythetail] 11/12/2024 14:25

Be careful - Triple Point are capable of messing any investment up.
Their track record is awful.

[2wild] 27/11/2024 19:29

If they were, we wouldn't be able to buy on such a large discoun to NAV. Current subdued share price looks very attractive on a risk reward basis.

Incredibly Bank of England bass rate was below 0.8% Between March 2009 and May 2022. During the time many alternative income investment trusts came to market and subsequently traded at low to high premiums to NAV. Lots of these are down ober 50% from highs some years ago. I think anybody buying a few of these are current prices will do extremely well during next five years.

[solarno lopez] 27/11/2024 14:41

As I mentioned they are not manager's of quality

[grahamg8] 12/10/2024 11:16

30/9 Triple Point sacked by SOHO. Replaced by Atrato.

[tigerbythetail] 11/10/2024 10:10

Triple Point sacked over at DGI9. Share price up as a consequence!

[joe say] 04/10/2024 06:57

Good point but the RNS at the time stated

Sale Terms

P3P Partners has offered to refinance the CHP Portfolio, comprising loans to Harvest, Glasshouse and Spark Steam, repaying a total of £17.5 million. The offer is comprised of an immediate payment of £14.5 million and three subsequent payments of £1 million, to be received on 30 September 2024, 30 June 2025 and 30 September 2026. The £3 million deferred payment is not contingent and is not expected to delay the completion of the managed wind-down and delisting of TENT. The outstanding principal and capitalised interest as at 31 March 2024 across all three loans was £23.1 million, resulting in an impairment of £6.1 million.

Note that the payment is non contingent.

That said, they also spoke of the deterioration in APS debtor profile - which is where I would expect the issue to lie

[cc2014] 04/10/2024 06:48

The problem is I expect there's a reason. If it were no payment I think the situation would actually be clearer.

[joe say] 04/10/2024 06:45

Not good - but hopefully TENT will pursue these monies aggressively

[cc2014] 04/10/2024 06:17

hmm. P3P Partners who have owe the money to TENT in relation to the CHP they sold to APS Salads only paying part of the bill.

I note P3P Partners also own 80% of APS, a strange business to be invested compared with the rest of their core business.

[grahamg8] 30/9/2024 15:51

Triple Point look as if they are going for a quick exit. Hydro disposal should now be in the final/firm bid stage. Give them say two months to choose a preferred bidder, three months for completion and liquidation should follow by year end (31/3). Even at 90% of book this still looks like a reasonable return. I would hope for more as the asset value was written down at last year end, so it should (fingers crossed) be pretty accurate.

[welshborderer] 20/9/2024 08:49

"Well year end NAV of 86.66 less 25p div gives 61.66p"

Did the 25p paid out represent the full NPV included in the calculation of 86.66 as, if not then the 61.66 needs to be flexed, which in the final event it will be anyway as disposals are achieved.

I bought in yesterday on the basis the price fall had effectively given me the 25p etc , so have the shares I would have expected before XP and reinvestment.

[spindoctor111] 19/9/2024 09:29

Well year end NAV of 86.66 less 25p div gives 61.66p. If hydro sale at close to year end value then we will see a good uplift compared to current share price
The usual caveats and uncertainties apply.... The thread above flags some of them. I hold.

[solarno lopez] 19/9/2024 08:58

Is it worth investing at this level for future pay-outs ?

[spindoctor111] 18/9/2024 21:13

xd 25p Thursday 19/09/24

[rimau1] 09/9/2024 12:47

Good analysis chaps, revalidates my hold strategy here with at least 10p upside over the next 12 months which in a tax free wrapper is good enough for me

[cc2014] 09/9/2024 11:39

Ah, I see where you are coming from. Thank you for taking the time and effort to reply in detail.

If I had understood it better I would not have sold out. Having said that I'm not inclined to buy back in. I've just about had it with Triple Point despite having made some decent money here and escaped on DGI9.

[stemis] 09/9/2024 11:03

Yes, we aren't in disagreement that there was an impairment on refinancing (= repayment) of the CHP Portfolio. The issue is whether it was included in the year end NAV/share of 86.66p. The reason I think it was is

1. at the date of issue of the results (24 June) the refinancing was known, so GAAP would require them to account for the impairment.

2. In the details of the account under Portfolio Valuation it says

"Under circumstances where an offer is received for an investment and the Company deems this to be fair market value, the valuation method may change to be based on the offer value. This can be demonstrated in the valuations of the BESS Portfolio and also the CHP Portfolio, which are based on the offer received to refinance these loans repaying a total of £17.5 million, £14.5 million of which has been received and £3 million of which is receivable in three instalments in September 2024, June 2025 and September 2026.".

After this is Valuation movements

As noted above, the deterioration in the financial position of the tomato grower and a forecast reduction in spark spread led to a reduction in the valuation of the CHP Portfolio. This is reflected in the offer that was accepted in June to refinance the loans, which represents an impairment of £6.1 million.

At the bottom of the note is the bridging diagram reconciling the movement in valuation of £90.1m at March 23 to the £83.4m at March 24. You will see the £6.1m CHP FV adjustment in it. The £83.4m portfolio valuation is part of the £86,677m NAV which equates to 86.66p/share.

[cc2014] 09/9/2024 08:45

Here we go SteMis. Not that it matters as we've both sold out.



From the RNS
"P3P Partners has offered to refinance the CHP Portfolio, comprising loans to Harvest, Glasshouse and Spark Steam, repaying a total of £17.5 million. The offer is comprised of an immediate payment of £14.5 million and three subsequent payments of £1 million, to be received on 30 September 2024, 30 June 2025 and 30 September 2026. The £3 million deferred payment is not contingent and is not expected to delay the completion of the managed wind-down and delisting of TENT. The outstanding principal and capitalised interest as at 31 March 2024 across all three loans was £23.1 million, resulting in an impairment of £6.1 million."

I'm not sure where I got the 5.6p write down from. It appears to be 6.1p.

[stemis] 08/9/2024 12:42

Published NAV of 86.7p, but that's before the CHP write down of 5.6p.

I think the NAV of 86.7p already includes the write down of the CHP assets to the sale value of £17.5m.

[cc2014] 08/9/2024 07:43

I spent a very conflicted Friday afternoon trying to decide what to do and in the end sold out.

An income distribution rather than a capital distribution I could have coped with as I bought around 55p and it would only have left me a small capital loss on the remainder but the remainder I would have had to sell before the final distribution. However, I suspect that will not be the case for many and a slew of sales will appear over the next few weeks for that very reason. Clearly someone is soaking them up at the moment probably because to some institutions income distributions are attractive but how many do they want. I have a suspicion Milkwood may soak up very many millions, maybe even enough to overturn the wind-up but if they stop the share price will fall.

I also went through the NAV which took me ages and this is what I get. I'm open to finding out I've made a mistake.

Published NAV of 86.7p, but that's before the CHP write down of 5.6p.
So that takes us to 81p.
We've had two dividends since then so that takes us to 78.25p.
From there we have some revenue from the investments they still have less the running costs and I'm going to guess they net of.

So, I'm out at just over 71.2p vs my NAV of 78.25p.
I guess if I'd waited until the end of March to get the rest of the cash I'd get 78p ish which would give me 9.5% over 7 months. A good reason to stay in.

I would have preferred an exit at 73p, which would have seemed fairer, but I'm not sure the market was going to give it me.

Also, I've banked my CGT gains before Rachel Reeves screws us all on CGT

[chico hamilton] 06/9/2024 13:26

What an absolute sh*t way to distribute capital!! If you hold these outside a tax wrapper many will get stung with the dividend allowance. For those that have sold and looking to buy back after the ex-date to avoid the dividend allowance breach just remember that if you buy back within 30 days you will create a capital gain.

[stemis] 06/9/2024 12:28

Sure, but I was kind of offsetting that against costs of wind up...

[cc2014] 06/9/2024 12:24

Plus the assets left are still generating revenue so you can probably add another penny to the NAV.

[stemis] 06/9/2024 11:51

Current share price of 71p less 25p special dividend is net cost 46p.

Last net asset value (31.3.24) was 86.66p/share. Since then they've paid 2 dividends of 1.375p each so, after the 25p special dividend, proforma NAV/share would be 58.9p.

'Potential' upside of 28%.

Unfortunately Triple Point being the useless bunch they are, have decided to return me my first tranche of my own capital by means of a dividend. As I hold it outside a tax shelter that means I'd have to pay tax on it. So I've sold...