Touchstone Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[mount teide] 27/11/2018 11:58

Company Presentation updated: 20th November

Ortoire East exploration locations increased from 2 to 4 wells - all targeting Crus/Gros Morne formations - all with estimated terminal depths of 5,000ft - 6,000ft.

[ileeman] 26/11/2018 16:04

TXP up 5% GKP up 11%

Good to see things bouncing a little, still think leading upto OPEC and a few weeks after we see oil price back upt 15-20% from here.

Hopefully see TXP back on 20p soon enough.

[zho] 26/11/2018 11:45

Lots of broker comments on the price of oil at - not behind paywall

Also ... "For the White House, cheap oil is now shortsighted politics" -

[ileeman] 26/11/2018 09:46

Loads of producers bouncing today, TXP lagging behind.

Strangely oil is bouncing but not by much, just shows how oversold some of these stocks have been taken.

Monster move across the board when we see a proper recovery in oil.

[captainfatcat] 23/11/2018 16:43

Keeping a bit of powder dry for another top up, my two earlier in the week were a little early in hind sight. Probably wait and see the poo price settle first.

Its going to turn at some point.

[che7win] 23/11/2018 16:25

Wanobi, Market is in control of shorters right now, but I think a few might get stung.Surely Russia and OPEC now talk about this at the G20 meeting, with the fall making the decision to cut oil output more persuasive.

[wanobi] 23/11/2018 16:15

agreed il & c7, I will be buying more of these also, just feel oil drop is not done yet and the 'baby is being thrown out with the bath water' right now, so to speak... let's see what happens next week... cheers Wan

[che7win] 23/11/2018 16:13

Agree iLeeman, TXP can make with their cost structure positive cashflow down to mid $30 oil.Also positive on I3E with a positive interview their today.

[scottishfield] 23/11/2018 16:06

Indeed Lauders, best of luck to you too.

[ileeman] 23/11/2018 16:04

Added a few more here and in GKP today, my timing has been a bit of on the oil lows but still highly confident we see a swing back up north over next few weeks.

Markets have a habit of going oversold and overbought and they do correct at some point.

Prices on offer are a gift imo.

[lauders] 23/11/2018 15:08

scottishfield 21 Nov '18 - 16:13 - 3433 of 3459 0 0 0

That's better today, bargain hunters, had some myself too.

Down again today scottishfield so my opportunity to top-up today. Thought I had missed my chance the other day! Hopefully we will be looking back at these levels in a few years time and wondering why we didn't add more. Would be nice but we have a while to wait. Good luck.

[sleveen] 23/11/2018 14:38

TXP should be classed with PMO, ENQ and TLW as oil stocks highly geared to the POO.

[celeritas] 23/11/2018 12:20

Shell, Exxon bought Petrotrin crude

[captainfatcat] 23/11/2018 09:32

bit of info on TT spot sales posted on the Trin bb good to see TT oil is achieving a premium over WTI.

[mount teide] 22/11/2018 19:28

Oil price outlook in 2019 little fazed by market jitters - S&P Global Platts survey - today

Brent crude oil will recover to average above $75/b next year despite clouds looming over global demand as OPEC and its producer allies move to defend prices by preventing a new supply glut, according to top banks and oil brokers surveyed by S&P Global Platts.

Front-month spot Brent will average $75.50/b in 2019, down from forecasts of $78.51/b in early October, according to a survey of 11 top oil forecasters.

Brent prices this year are expected to average $73.91/b.....

....With OPEC and its key producer allies set to consider resuming output cuts to tighten the market at their meeting on December 6 in Vienna, most market watchers believe prices are set to recover from current levels next year.

"OPEC has indicated its determination not to let the market slip back into oversupply in 2019, and we think it has given a clear indication of its intention to defend prices in the $70s," HSBC said in a note last week. Following strong signalling from OPEC's key players, the bank said it expects a cut of at least 1 million b/d to be formalised at the December meeting.

Societe Generale also believes OPEC will cut crude supply by 1 million b/d "or more" in December to avoid "severe oversupply in 2019 and to maintain Brent prices within the desired range of $70-80."

Morgan Stanley expects Brent to average $78.13/b next year. "Global inventories and spare capacity are still low by historical standards, supporting oil prices. However, we no longer see a further tightening from here on."

Barclays is keeping its 2019 Brent forecast unchanged at $72/b and continues to see risks skewed to the upside next year.

[mount teide] 22/11/2018 19:17

JP Morgan today lowered its Brent crude oil price forecast for 2019 to $73 a barrel some 12.6% below its previous forecast of $83.50 a barrel.

[zengas] 22/11/2018 09:06

Nothing wrong with oil in the $50-$60 range where we were last year. TXP were more than happy to ramp up drilling/production on that basis. Those plans were made before the current short lived spike to $85.45 (see below) yet many are aghast as if, where did this come from ?

Brent index averaged mid $50/b throughout 2017 and with the exception of some weekly spikes early 2018 averaged $65/b Q1 2018.

From 16th April - 21st August it averaged mid $70s (barely 4 months).

From 21st August to 3rd October - all of 6 weeks, Brent index oil spiked to $85.45 and has over the last 5 weeks retreated back to $62.50 today. So WHY are some suddenly crying we need $75-$85/b oil ?

It may/may not drop back into a lower range. My view is it's temporary and as an investor and hopefully the company also, is looking at a longer term view of averages rather than spikes and troughs.

From experience low oil prices reduce costs. Drillers/service providers need work and to stay in business so costs come down.
Investment by the big guns particularly deepwater/offshore tends to get hit causing the same old future spike in prices.

Prices go too low and US shale aren't as profitable and these are the ones who need to get high flush production to pay their high debts. American production might be strong but low prices aren't good for them either. You end up losing oil jobs and the massive amount of American bank debt (and rising interest rates there) that could hurt Trump where he doesn't want to be hurt. Last time, rigs operating dwindled to record lows so somewhere along the line equilibrium has to be and will be found.

[red rook] 21/11/2018 23:52

MT,

Sure, Trump gets his facts wrong and is not averse to making things up. Yes, he is taking a lot of political heat at home by covering the Saudi's ass! The Saudis must know it, and understand that Trump will expect their cooperation.

I agree that the Saudi prince will have balanced his countries economic interests with his own self preservation, by keeping Trump on side. I think that with previous US presidents, like Obama, the Saudis could risk ignoring the US. However, they must also have realised that Trump is not like past presidents. Trump is by nature a thug and a bully and I think they will fall in line, take the economic hit of lower oil prices by using up more of their soverign funds or borrowing, and pray that he is one term president !

Regarding the US shale oil sector: As long as the finance keeps coming the US oilers will keep drilling and pumping. How long for I do not know. The nature of the US shale sector is that they can easily shut down operations and start up again when conditions become favourable again. Like they did in the last downturn. Also, they will learn to adapt, and quickly adopt new techologies and pratices to become more efficient each time. Also, the US can always go back to printing more money whenever it is required !

You are right that from a purely economic viewpoint the US shale sector, as a whole, does not make sense. But IMO, it needs to be considered from a political and strategic viewpoint.

In any case, just my views. Hope that I am wrong and that oil moves back up to the $75-$85 bracket soon.

[mount teide] 21/11/2018 22:21

RR - It would help if Trump could actually get his facts right - Trump referenced two prices in his latest tweet, causing much confusion, saying crude was at “$54” having come down from “$82”. Trump seems to have compared the current price of WTI with last month’s price for Brent.

Interestingly, tonight Trump's decision to disregard the overwhelming evidence presented to him by his own and the Turkish intelligence services has gone down like lead balloon in Europe and Turkey and, with his own Republican party. A leading Republican Senator and Chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee commented "that we have the bizarre situation of the White House moonlighting as a public relations firm for a Saudi Crown Prince".

Despite what Trump may has said today the reality is that it's simply not in Trump’s interest for oil prices to go down further, because he also has to please the huge US shale producer's lobby and their Wall Street financiers.

I strongly suspect that the Saudis will balance the cost of Trump's support with their own interests, and look to balance the oil market over the next 3-6 months, which is likely to lead to oil(Brent) averaging around the Saudi's and Opec's preferred price range of $70-$75 in 2019. A level that is still some 10-15% below the mean price of the last 10 years.

[red rook] 21/11/2018 20:58

MT,

OPEC as a group will be hard to get to work together without the Saudis, and currently Trump has the Saudi's crown prince by the balls! ... By looking the other way regarding Khashoggi.

Early Wednesday morning, Trump took to Twitter to promote the recent sharp pullback in oil prices and to praise Saudi Arabia.

@realDonaldTrump: Oil prices getting lower. Great! Like a big Tax Cut for America and the World. Enjoy! $54, was just $82. Thank you to Saudi Arabia, but let's go lower!

Also, there are some in OPEC who will not wish to cut production. I posted earlier about the boost in production in Libya and their relucatance to cut production.

[mount teide] 21/11/2018 20:28

RR

Most of the ME now needs $80+ oil to fund/balance their domestic budgets. The days of being able to do that at $45 oil are long gone - any extended period of $45 oil would likely unleash Arab Spring 2 through the region like a tsunami.

With 33m bopd of Opec production the situation/maths is much more in their control than Trump's - as seen recently, just by raising Opec's production by around 4% combined with Trump's hoodwinking shenanigans, Opec managed to drop the price of oil by over 20% inside 3 months. A similar size cut took Brent from $28 to $86 despite US shale oil production growing some 2m bopd during that period.

Trump's most effective control over the Saudi's has previously been military support - that's why the US is very concerned about the partnership/collaboration deal Russia is expected to sign shortly with Saudi Arabia.

[ileeman] 21/11/2018 19:59

Oil correction over the last month is just a blip after an amazing couple years. People will be thinking what all the fuss is about in a week or two. It is amazing how spooked some get.

No doubt OPEC will do some major cuts and oil heads back over 70-80$ in no time.

[che7win] 21/11/2018 19:14

Final link from me - just shows no one knows where oil will go:hTtps://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/13/us-shale-oil-must-add-another-russia-worth-of-production-iea-says.html