Touchstone Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[dunderheed] 28/11/2022 20:43

TGM not really that embarrassing, simply par for the course for King BS'er, lol.
Perhaps this issue wasn't mentioned at the "Engineering kick off" meeting the tw*t "recently" attended, second lol.
I'll get me coat, whilst shaking my head in disbelief.

[the_gold_mine] 28/11/2022 20:16

I see TXP are announcing on social media that a couple of compressor packages are ready for shipment from Houston to Trinidad,



For a plant that was meant to be running by year-end 2021 that's a fairly embarrassing announcement to be making. But I am happy to see progress getting made, no matter how stupid it makes the previous timelines look.

But on the plus side, I did tell you to expect delays back in post 28522 (23rd January 2022) due to the compression plant, it looks like The_Gold_Mine was bang on the money once again. And to think, you mugs get to listen to my specialist knowledge free of charge! I won't expect the many persons who accused me of de-ramping (etc) to extend me an apology, but you all know who you are...

p.s. hurry up and drill Royston sidetrack already, I am hacked of waiting for the 2 year continuous drilling program to start.

[davidblack] 27/11/2022 23:31

Redart this is what I actually wrote:

“Sorry but it comes across as just old fashioned bigotry.”

I wasn’t commenting on your underlying view point as like you say I don’t know you but merely on how a reasonable reader might take your comments.

[swallowsflysouth] 27/11/2022 18:27

This country somehow managed to write off many million, if not billions, in NOT providing protective garments/equipment to the NHS at the beginning of the epidemic, where that money went is still an apparent mystery which is not going to be investigated. Strange. Corruption? apparently not. 'Let he who is without sin point the finger'.

[redartbmud] 27/11/2022 18:07

Db

You don't know me, but judge me as old fashioned and a bigot. Says something for your intergrity.
I won't bore you with my lifetime experience in politics, industry and commerce. I would not be able to prove it in an open forum, without revealing skeletons, and you undoubtedly would not believe the jucier bits.
It is what it is but I have a clear conscience from being an honest broker.

red

[mount teide] 27/11/2022 15:53

DB -'Free markets and perfect competition are just an insane concept sold by theoretical economics thinkers. Sadly the real world doesn’t work that way.'

Would agree in almost every respect that politics now has far too much control over most major markets today, with one exception.

The global shipping market has remained largely free of political control over the last 70 years, largely because its a truly global industry, with a low cost barrier to entry, and the cost of shipping commodities and finished goods, 90%+ of which at some point in time are transported in ship's, is a tiny fraction of the value of the commodity or finished goods they carry.

It's one of the reasons why long history has seen the shipping market often move strongly counter cyclically to the wider global economy since, it fortunes rise and fall directly in accordance with the shipping supply versus demand dynamic.

By way of example, while the S&P 500 was collapsing in 2000 by circa 50%, and was still in correction mode some 20% down by 2006, the commodity and shipping market's after a 5 year recession into 2000, then boomed, with shipping company valuations going through the roof. Frontline, one of the largest oil tanker companies at the time returned a circa 75 bagger for investors during that decade, while Clarkson's shipbroker returned over 10 fold in 8 years.

Yet, such is the boom and bust nature of the sector, between 2008 and 2012, Frontline lost 98% of its equity value(along with nearly every US quoted tanker and dry bulk shipping company) and had entered Chapter 11 protection.

The shipping industry's fortunes routinely rise and fall entirely according to the supply v demand dynamic, regardless as to the the fortunes of the wider economy. Mostly, because of the extremely low cost of it services to its customers.

Even when oil tanker charter rates have risen 10 fold to over today's $100,000/day, the impact on the cost to the cargo owners chartering the ships is still loose change.

For a VLCC carrying 2.0m barrels of Brent being shipped from Rotterdam to the US Gulf Coast the shipper's economics are:

$200m - Cargo Value at $100 Brent

$100k spot market oil tanker charter rate (as today)
$1.4m - cost of 14 day Spot Market Charter Hire of Oil Tanker
0.7% - cost of ship transport as % of the cargo value

$10k spot market oil tanker charter rate (as earlier in the year)
$0.14m - cost of 14 day Spot Market Charter Hire of Oil Tanker
0.07% - cost of ship transport as % of the cargo value

The oil tanker's owners earnings have gone up 10 fold to near record levels, while the cost to the cargo owner is an increase of just 0.63% of the value of his cargo, from when charter rates were one tenth of the cost.

At the extreme end, Apple ship's iPhones with a sales value of over $75m in a single 40ft container, which can be shipped today, quay to quay from Shanghai to Los Angeles for around $3,500. Equivalent to 0.004% of the cargo value. If the container shipping rate went up a hundred fold to $350,000, it would still only be equivalent to 0.4% of the cargo value or $4 per phone!

If Government's had some effective political/regulatory control over the shipping market as they do with say the property market, they would never have allowed dry bulk shipping charter rates(for the global movement of commodities) to completely collapse from $233k/day to less than $1k/day in less than 5 months during 2008. It resulted in the loss of 98% of the equity value of the quoted global fleet, and forced Government's world-wide to turn a blind eye for half a decade to shipowner's ignoring accountancy rules ref: the mark to market of their shipping fleets, to avoid certain insolvency.

So, the only political interference Government's has brought to bear on the shipping industry, is to turn a blind eye to it operating while insolvent to avoid the global economy crashing from the temporary loss of availability of 75% of the world's dry bulk and oil tanker fleets.

New ship's are generally bought with 80% mortgages - so, when rates crash as in 2008, ship values crash with them, triggering the breaking of loan covenants, when the ships are marked to market in the accounts.

One major oil tanker owner in 2008 had a fleet of 120 ships and a market cap of $7bn. When the company entered Chapter 11 protection three years later, it had a market cap of $120m, but still owned those 120 ships, which had a 'market' value according to the accounts of $4.8bn, no broken loan covenants, and had received a 2 year waiver on loan interest payments from banks petrified of collectively losing $billions were the ships put up for sale, in a market where actual prices had fallen by around 75%.

[davidblack] 27/11/2022 12:45

Sorry but it comes across as just old fashioned bigotry. Trinidad is just a typical example of a middle income country where decision making is painfully slow. It’s a near universal problem, the classic “Middle income trap” which most emerging market countries hit and only some navigate passed.

[redartbmud] 26/11/2022 17:33

Db

Not anti-T&T anti-corruption anywhere, but hey ho..... no future in being honest these days.
Sooo pleased to get a red thumb from a bluey. Means I am doing something right.

red

[davidblack] 26/11/2022 12:10

Redart the same issues exist in many localities of dominant local suppliers who can’t and won’t be pressured, including the U.K. just try to attach a windmill or solar farm to the grid and you will quickly come across effective local control entities.

So perhaps you might want to tone down on the anti Trinidad line that you seem keen to sell?

Free markets and perfect competition are just an insane concept sold by theoretical economics thinkers. Sadly the real world doesn’t work that way.

[buffythebuffoon] 26/11/2022 10:22

As it’s the weekend….

“I can see why the Chinese companies parachute in their own workforce, protected by their own army, in some countries when they are developing some parts of their business.“

That’s something they can do because they are communists. The country can also have joined up thinking because their leader doesn’t change every five minutes. Even within one party we can have three leaders within a few weeks. How can the country be run like that?

They are even using capitalism to make oceans full of money, and they have outsmarted the west. They play the long game.

I’m sure the Japanese are looking on with a degree of envy and possibly even regret, having treated the Chinese contemptuously for so long.

As a caring capitalist, who believes that creating wealth helps everybody, I can’t totally align with any party.

Buffy

[redartbmud] 26/11/2022 08:31

That sounds appalling. Corruption at its worst, and no doubt allowed by a government that is taking backhanders to facilitate the debacle.

It doesn't encourage investment in the country. PB should still come clean and present shareholders with the facts. We would still be angry, but we would at least understand the scenario.

I can see why the Chinese companies parachute in their own workforce, protected by their own army, in some countries when they are developing some parts of their business.

red

[davidblack] 25/11/2022 23:23

Sounds like a great idea but when you are on an island with say just two or three suppliers who are friendly with each other and essentially “Share the work” then being contractually focused about timelines just doesn’t work.

Sadly I am very familiar with this situation. You simply have to manage what your going to get in terms of service.

[davidblack] 25/11/2022 13:21

Feels like a new approach to PR is in place.

A “Say nothing until it’s done” strategy given the Company is at the mercy of other people delivery timelines.

The transition from commenting on future events to a lagging approach to disclosure may have resulted in this quiet period.

[herman007] 24/11/2022 23:22

We might have reached a point where it is meaningless for the management to present excuses for delays, detailed drilling plans or timelines. Maybe we just need to get detailed operational updates telling us what they have done and what they will do in the immidiate future. When a rig is moved, it is RNSed. When a well is spud, likewise. Maybe some time in the future, after having reached some operational success and predictability, they can restart the detailed market guidence.

[dunderheed] 24/11/2022 22:49

Herman I don't disagree but unless you see hard and fast percentages it can be bkusterf'ed away in an RNS and even then coho was something like 99.99% complete for the last three months!! .
The BS'ER in chief just can't be trusted and the last RNS gave no reasons whatsoever why the Casca start up has gone from verbal 4qtr to likely 1qtr to end of 1qtr??!!
All IMHO, DYOR and pub talk of course.

[herman007] 24/11/2022 22:30

The SHAG has initiated a friendly dialogue with the management, coordinated by our chief, the Monkey. I cannot speak for the group, but I speculate that they/we will adjust the approach based on the quality and frequency of updates coming from the company going forward. Personally, I would hope we receive an official operational update before Christmas.

[1domus] 24/11/2022 22:25

Why are these facts…?

[11_percent] 24/11/2022 18:36

Just the facts Jack...just the facts.

# The Casc pipeline will not be complete by Christmas 22.

# No Royston sidetrack in January.

[redartbmud] 24/11/2022 17:09

Will they have to get the safety cert for the 'shiny new rig sitting in the yard' updated before they can use it, as it has been standing by for such a long time? That would be a further delay to proceedings.
Do the sharp bits on the drill bits rust? That would be another delay.

[dunderheed] 24/11/2022 16:47

Agree but after the Coho debacle I thought the SHAG was chasing regular accurate updates?

[herman007] 24/11/2022 12:26

I think we are on the same page. Anyway, not saying that TXP is not making any progress onsite (Cas), it is just that we have not seen it documented yet.

[dunderheed] 24/11/2022 12:04

herman007 - photos - we need hard facts not PB BS speak plus pretty pictures.
The SHAG has 15% holdings and seems happy about the situation - I've stated pretty clearly on a number of occasions I feel we are being taken for mugs - we need basic %tage completed versus monthly (and cumulative) schedule plus versus total project schedule - which they should have at their finger tips for S curve analysis or if they don't follow that methodology - their respective project control work-papers redacted / edited appropriately.
It's not difficult (or sharing anything controversial - except possibly the image that this company is incompetent top - all the way down of course) and could be RNS'd in simple format each month.
All IMHO / DYOR.
Busy at moment so don't take non reply as implicit acceptance or rudeness.

[herman007] 24/11/2022 11:45

From Sept the sidetrack has been classified as «near term».Credible rumors posted on Discord had the spud set for December, later corrected to Jan due to various issues. PB has given conflicting info on timing, but in the Q3 report they chose not to mention the timing at all.If they always get things wrong, I think the smartest move would be to give a comfortable range. The next miniature trigger would be photos showing considerable progress onsite.

[11_percent] 24/11/2022 10:00

homebrewruss22 Nov '22 - 21:39 - 33787 of 33802
0 0 0
Talk of Royston sidetrack in January '23, we will have to wait and see..

===============

Cannot see it.......there are long lead times on oil field drilling equipment items......everyone is pushing their spud dates back.

There has been no mention by Paul of any drilling......and I assume they will drill the legacy wells first. Too near to January now.

Not saying I would not like to see Royston sidetrack drilled tomorrow.

TXP is a waiting game at the moment.

[11_percent] 24/11/2022 09:52

Spangle......I stand corrected.....thank you.