Touchstone Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[captainfatcat] 24/7/2018 13:10

MT yes my thoughts are very much along the same lines.

[mount teide] 24/7/2018 13:09

cfc - have a similar 12 month price target from the planned 2018/19 production development programme.

What's encouraged two friends and I to continue averaging up has been the highly encouraging results of the technical evaluation of the Ortoire Block and the planned exploration programme announced for 2019 - which we think in the event of success at any of the 5 large prospects has the potential to be worth multiples of the current valuation.

[captainfatcat] 24/7/2018 12:15

MT a doubling of the Market cap to £50 million looks very achievable over the next 6-12 months. This was a main driver for transferring my sdx funds to TXP. The growth potential here combined with a relatively low risk is very attractive and a combination you do not come across all that often.

Plus management have a wealth of prior experience this really goes a long way in having a high level of confidence in TXP achieving the growth from the current assets.

Looking forward to the next update shouldn't be to long to wait now

Tick Tock

[mount teide] 24/7/2018 11:46

Considering the company fundamentals - 2018/19 production development programme and the ultra high impact, low cost, "low risk" Ortoire exploration prospects due to commence drilling in less than 6 months, the current £24m market cap is hardly demanding - even at a share price of 30p the m/cap would only be £39m.

[brasso3] 24/7/2018 11:23

The valuation gap between CERP and TXP is starting to close. TXP should be at 30p IMO.

Surely the 2000 BOPD threshold is days/ weeks away rather than months.

[mount teide] 24/7/2018 10:54

Spangle93 - indeed - the inference from management certainly suggests the initial Ortoire exploration targets will be the three large natural gas prospects(which i'm very happy with) but, with four exploration wells planned in 2019 we could/should get at least one of the two oil prospects drilled - which according to management have similar potential in terms of reserves as the gas targets.

[awise355] 24/7/2018 10:27

I can sell all my holding 110,000 for 18.26p

[spangle93] 24/7/2018 10:25

Mount T - my impression from the recorded presentation was that gas was TXP's focus, at least initially, in the Ortoire block (though nice to have a choice!)

[mount teide] 24/7/2018 10:24

L2 - 2 v 3 - 18.0p v 19.0p

There are 3 MM's on 19.0p allegedly offering 10,000 shares each yet the maximum i can get for a immediate quote for is 5,000.

[mount teide] 24/7/2018 10:11

Difficult to purchase stock in any volume during much of this morning - currently, a maximum of 2,000 shares at 18.67p is being offered for an immediate quote on ii.

[mount teide] 24/7/2018 09:59

Ortoire - while the potential of the 3 gas prospects look very exciting the two oil prospects look pretty interesting too - considering the size of the oil discoveries (Analogous Pools) surrounding and immediately adjacent to the perimeter of the Ortoire block and previously put into production on the block during 1940 - 1960, before the exploration focus of the majors moved largely offshore.

Source: Latest presentation - page 18 gives a good overview.

[mount teide] 24/7/2018 09:25

L2 - moved from 2 v 3 at 8:30 to now 4 v 1 @ 17.5p v 18.5p

[someuwin] 24/7/2018 09:23

Yes - buys keep coming in.

[2prsimo] 24/7/2018 09:02

18.50p paid - it has to pop soon surely?

[someuwin] 24/7/2018 08:16

Stock still very tight.

Can't get a buy quote for just £1k.

[spangle93] 23/7/2018 22:33

Mount Teide - thanks for that

Zengas, good ideas. Ortoire is gas, that's what makes it exciting.


For those who haven't seen the presentation, Ortoire is around 13:30 mins

[zengas] 23/7/2018 22:03

Thanks MT

So risked figure now 35p.

“We see strong scope for further upgrades to this figure as reserve additions come through and plans for drilling at Ortoire progress.” - That's 2 seperate price drivers beyond 35p.

Last year we had an 18% P2 reserves upgrade (after production) from the development wells, so should be a further net increase post this year end regardless of Ortoire.

Imo risked figure could move to around 42p (last reserves upgrade 8th March) on a similar 18% increase.

Already touched on the potential from Ortoire and imo could be worth multiples of current risked target. Ortoire has 4 existing discoveries so imo we should add some production/reserves there given they are going to drill parrallel to these if i recall correctly. Hint of an oil discovery/producer and 50p breakthrough.

[mr. t] 23/7/2018 21:17

Thanks MT, a nice summary. Interesting they talk about reserves growth too. That's one one of the points zengas has made on occasion.

[euclid5] 23/7/2018 19:30

35p TP is the same TP GMP Energy placed on them a while back - good that 2 brokers have the same TP

[brasso3] 23/7/2018 19:18

Won't be long now until this passes 20p.

[2prsimo] 23/7/2018 19:07

Very nice - cheers MT

[mount teide] 23/7/2018 18:59

Shore Capital continues to see “considerable running room” for Touchstone Exploration shares despite circa 40% jump this year - ProactiveInvestors 14:53 today

'The City broker’s bullish view comes after its analysts upgraded their sum-of-the-parts valuation for the Trinidad-focused oil producer by circa 20% to 35p, up from 29p previously, having raised their earnings and risked net asset value (NAV) estimates.

Touchstone shares were trading at 17.9p on Monday afternoon, up over 5% on last Friday’s close.

In a note to clients, the ShoreCap analysts said: “The ongoing drilling programme has translated into robust production growth and, with daily production having surpassed 1,800bopd (barrels of oil per day) prior to the end of H1, we are confident that 2,000bopd will be exceeded before the year is out.”

The analysts said that, while their model comprises various moving parts, in simple terms they have maintained their full-year 2018 average daily production forecast at 1,800 bopd, but an upgraded oil price deck helps drive an earnings per share (EPS) upgrade to C$0.03, up from C$0.02.

They added that their newly introduced forecasts for full-year 2019 indicate EPS of C$0.05 next year, which assumes production at 2,200 bopd, which the analysts believe is a conservative estimate given Touchstone’s ongoing programme of drilling and workovers.

“Longer term, we believe that (up to) 5,000 bopd remains eminently achievable,” they added.

The analysts said that despite foreign exchange movements and placing-related dilution, their risked NAV estimate for Touchstone has been upgraded to 35p a share, reflecting increasing visibility on drilling at the high impact Ortoire block in Trinidad.

They added; “We see strong scope for further upgrades to this figure as reserve additions come through and plans for drilling at Ortoire progress.”

Despite its small cap status, the ShoreCap analysts said, Touchstone is one of the most active independents operating onshore Trinidad, enjoying a “Top Four” position - with realistic ambitions to become the leading player behind state oil company Petrotrin.

Since its dual listing on AIM last year, they added, they have highlighted the Calgary, Canada-based firm as one of the most compelling situations on their E&P coverage list.

The analysts noted that their recent site visit to Trinidad coincided with the company’s AGM there last month and “provided us with even greater confidence in the business, which has successfully become a material producer with a first rate operating capability and high levels of local content.”

They said “With 1,800bopd having been reached nicely ahead of “half time” this year, we believe that 2,000bopd is very likely to be exceeded prior to year-end and maintain a high level of confidence in our FY2018F average daily production forecast of 1,800bopd.”

The analysts concluded: “We see strong scope for further Risked NAV upgrades as a result of 3P reserve additions and increasing visibility on drilling plans for the high impact Ortoire block, where we anticipate a ramp-up in exploration activities in FY2019.” '