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TXP Touchstone Exploration Inc

41.25
-1.00 (-2.37%)
Last Updated: 12:48:14
Delayed by 15 minutes
Touchstone Exploration Investors - TXP

Touchstone Exploration Investors - TXP

Share Name Share Symbol Market Stock Type
Touchstone Exploration Inc TXP London Ordinary Share
  Price Change Price Change % Share Price Last Trade
-1.00 -2.37% 41.25 12:48:14
Open Price Low Price High Price Close Price Previous Close
42.25 41.25 42.25 42.25
more quote information »
Industry Sector
OIL & GAS PRODUCERS

Top Investor Posts

Top Posts
Posted at 25/4/2024 16:08 by dunderheed
It was probably the best ever meeting of Clowns life with the ("major") share holders / investors but I'm confused, the market doesnae seem to think so?
I'm assuming they (II's) are all waiting for the first one to blink.
All IMHO and dyor of course.
Posted at 12/4/2024 21:25 by leoneobull
1000 investors thank Pro for his diligent research.
Posted at 10/4/2024 08:16 by buffythebuffoon
Che7win,

‘ we’re sitting on a monster gas field with Cascadura, and it’s getting bigger.’

It’s a well worn maxim but nonsense of course. Although to stop Spangle coming on to politely correct me, there is continuing movement so theoretically that could change. What we actually mean is that we have discovered more of what was already there.

By the way, I’m not saying that investing here and now won’t produce a decent CAGR, just that for me investing when I did I can’t see me achieving that. Besides, I will likely not be around when that happens anyway.

Good luck to those that were investors at the time PB triumphantly announced the tsunami of cash that was coming the company’s way and still hold today.

Buffy
Posted at 10/4/2024 07:23 by buffythebuffoon
I held three company’s shares; SAVE, TXP & AXL in order of purchase. I wanted to raise some money and my clear favourite to sell was TXP. I sold, dribbled out, my whole investment in TXP and am completely out of them now. Of course, I only had two options in the first place and I wouldn’t sell any AXL.

Paul Baay has been a real disappointment but my bigger disappointment is in not listening to my gut which just after his ‘wall of cash’ interview was telling me I should revisit a comment that a fellow bulletin board poster told me about the Calgary type mentality of the man. He shared his time between living in Blighty and living in Canada and knew what he was talking about. Invest in the man only became a number one criteria for me slightly after buying TXP.

So what is the Calgary type? Paraphrasing his words it’s basically a man who flies by the seat of his pants whether he is wearing a suit or not. Think trying to herd the stampede. That’s the image I had. Even while talking with an even tone sitting at a desk the heart of the man at crunch moments is to grab what looks like an opportunity without seriously looking at the downside. Of course, maybe the upside for him was far greater than the upside for investors and he would always do well out of it. Good for him.

I’ve never really bought into the mantra of Buffett that the best holding term is forever. Look at the constituents of the old FT30…

The CAGR of an investment in TXP from the the start of the Ortoire acquisition has been and always will be very poor whatever happens.

I won’t be looking back.

Buffy
Posted at 09/4/2024 10:28 by spangle93
Eggchaser - ref 37064
Unlike what is now CEG, where I also lost a bucket of money thanks to Ritson at LGO and his successors - being honest, my £5k investment is now worth less than the trade to sell it, thanks to "events, dear boy" and regular significant dilution - negative comments on this BB don't mean that the posters are shorters, or that they want to get in at a lower price.

I think there are a lot of long term investors in TXP who are dissatisfied with a bloated board, a COO who lives several time zones and thousands of km from the only operations, frequent missed schedule promises, and the President's hyperbole regarding discoveries that turn out to be unwarranted. I could go on.

You could label them stale bulls, which would be closer. If they didn't believe that ultimately they would be rewarded, they probably would have left, but even Dunderheed can see the positives and expects to be rewarded one day.

Why not view this board as similar to a group of soccer fans supporting a proper team in the lower reaches of the EFL. They moan about the useless goalie, the bad refereeing, the manager who doesn't know what he's doing, etc, but they know their players and how the club is run, they pay for their season ticket, and hold onto the belief that one day, they will host the big names at their shonky stadium in the premier league
Posted at 24/3/2024 21:17 by eggchaser
11% - as I say it's a gamble and given my investment history, stands a chance here despite what people say about PB and his Aces... Benefit of doubt and hindsight are all factors to consider - but one would hope my choice of calling this a gamble should cover both eventualities...If it was a sure bet in terms of what had been promised would surely lead to investors confidence and a much higher share price than we are at today??Argument there for uncertainty being a good thing!!!
Posted at 05/3/2024 09:11 by buffythebuffoon
Cfc,

‘ The take away as your comment on SOU shows is that even when engaging top flight services drilling ant well is never risk free.’

Having checked with a friend who was there he confirmed that there were three of the Schlumberger team sitting in front of us. Two were clearly deferring to the third. I asked him how it could have gone wrong. He looked at me and said ‘Sometimes you just can’t give a reason. Everything looked good and we are working on why it went wrong.’

James Parsons, the CEO who later departed, was used to swaggering around a stage being adored by his fans, sorry, investors. His face was a combination of thunder and embarrassment. When it came to question time the microphone that was handed round mysteriously wasn’t functioning. His was working of course… When it was time to stand up and act like a man he sadly fell well short.

PB at JSE said at one presentation that he didn’t know why investors put money in exploration only companies. It’s a low hit rate for sure. Maybe they are all Leicester City fans?

Buffy
Posted at 04/10/2023 01:03 by pro_s2009
Good post by AE. AE regularly has discussions with TXP.



ActiveEurope New: Yesterday, 5:05 AM
Analyst


Cascadura

Year end 2022 2P reserves were 75.1 MMboe and an NPV10 of U$993.7m pretax or U$450.6m post tax. It’s our understanding about 70% of that was attributable to Cascadura (52.1 MMboe) based on the area up to a fault line close to pad C. The two upcoming wells have the potential to move reserve numbers up substantially. Roughly speaking the first well (drilling from Cas C pad back towards current production 2 wells), if successful, would move 3P reserves to 2P reserves of about 35m MMboe (out of the 3P number 120.6 MMboe reported in reserve number), that’s a very significant value uplift. The next well after has the potential to bring new 2P reserves (not in 3P at all) focused on the area outside the fault line but up to the licence boundary (it drills from C pad towards licence boundary), and again if successful it could add 30-35 MMboe to 2P reserves. Lastly, if they receive final government sign off on the Rio Clara block they could drill a well from Cas C pad towards and across the current licence boundary and again if successful this could add a further circa 35m Mboe to 2P, all are approximate type numbers. Hence all 3 upcoming wells have the potential to add very significant 2P reserves and valuations, back of the envelope if all 3 were successful this could add circa 90 MMboe (80% share so net 72 MMboe) more to the existing Cas 2P of 52 MMboe (their 80% net share already). The share price/valuation is currently ‘disappointed’ with Royston result, delays across the board and little upcoming exploration drilling newsflow but is completely missing how material the Cascadura drilling could be.
All 2 or potentially 3 Cascadura wells are also primed for quick production (6months tie in Cas-C to Cas-A and separators etc) into existing facilities spare capacity, the current 2 producing wells are combined at 60mmcfd gross and may potentially increase to 90mmcfd gross in the future assuming there are no geological issues. The next wells are budgeted at 20 mmcfd gross each but are actually drilling into what management interpret as a slightly more gassy (less liquids) up-dip and potentially better area of relevant reservoirs for gas. They are budgeting minimal liquids although likely there will be some. Current 60mmcf and associated liquids provides U$4m a month, a move to 90 subject to successful geology at existing 2 wells moves this to U$6m a month and if all 3 new wells are on budget that’s 60mmcf/d and another U$4m a month: in total that’s U$10m a month possible at some point in late 2024/early 2025. Annualised that’s U$120m cashflow from Cascadura possible after the next 3 wells if drilled successfully. Obviously there can be delays and poor drilling results but this should be a relatively low risk development work and there are reasons it could surprise to the upside too. Its also worth noting the next well will be deepened to a new sheet as an exploration addition, we’d value this at zero but it’s worth mentioning.

Tax and Investment

Petroleum Operators ‘…entitled to capital allowances as follows….tangible and intangible exploration and development expenditure is computed on a straight line basis over 5 years (20% per annum)’ This means that if Touchstone spends U$100 on drilling and other related costs in one year, each subsequent year U$20 can be offset against taxable income so that over 5 years all the capex is effectively offset with taxable income. This is designed to encourage energy companies to keep investing in their business. Another way of looking at this is that if Touchstone invests U$100 in drilling its actually worth U$155 (100*55% (PPT+UEI rate)) over the 5 years to them. This is important to think about in the above Cascadura NPV reserve valuations pretax and post tax. The reality is the real value over time is somewhere in between these two NPV’s as there are some tax offsets from the full tax level modelled in the after tax valuation. Management are often questioned by investors ‘when are you going to pay a dividend or even do a share buyback?’. It’s worth pointing out both of these activities are ‘relatively expensive’ things to do when set against the tax incentives to keep reinvesting in the business. If touchstone reinvests nearly all its cashflow in growing the production of the company over several years it all gets ‘paid back’ in a lower tax rate. It’s for this reason investors and management ought to be reinvesting in growth rather than focusing on cash payback to investors. The reality is Touchstone are now self financing and have a plethora of new investment opportunities over the coming years, investors should be asking management to embrace growth capex for most of its cashflow. It’s the payback period on capex that’s actually the most important variable, ie how fast would capex on Cascadura payback. For instance 3 wells 80% share capex is 3*U$5.6m plus 80% of 5m for separators and pipes etc totals circa U$20.8m, if this adds 20mmcf/d each well totalling 60mmcf/d and U$ 4m a month then it takes somewhere around 5-6months to payback which is excellent use of cashflow (even less if including tax credit value).

Exploration

Cascadura has clearly been a huge success and as discussed above most likely still has more to give. In the recent presentation management put slides on several other future prospects, many are near drill ready but also some fall within the hoped for new licenses and asset swap deals that could be approved anytime between tomorrow and 12 months time depending on the Trinidad authorities timelines. Recently BP/Shell offshore licence was government approved and Touchstone management are hoping onshore licenses are next in line but there can be little predicting when this might be as the authorities appear to want to tie up all the licenses together meaning only once the last agreement is set up can they all be announced together, not doing companies or licenses individually. Coho 2 should be drilled 1H 2024 with a cheaper second rig and following that Coho 3 which includes the Gibba gas prospect at P50 circa 40-45BCF, these wells should fill the Shell spare capacity of 20mmcf/d. To the West of Cascadura they have named Char, Pike, Sturgeon and Muskallunga which all could be reached from one central pad (not yet permitted) and have promising on trend seismic with Cascadura. Equally Steelhead already has a drilling license already. Kokanee is up-dip from Chinook and needs a permit but is from an old drill pad so an easier permit exercise.

Valuation

I have always felt that Cascadura easily covers the valuation of the whole company up to somewhere around 120-150p per share (233.46m shares*120p or 150p=£280m to £350m). This does though include an implicit view that the next 2 wells will both be successful in proving up a much larger reserve base, the third not counted until licence agreement and drilling. The NPV10 post tax current value of U$450.6m could be at least twice that if all 3 wells come on prognosis. Most share prices trade at a wide discount to 2P valuations currently but you can easily argue for 120-150p. Alternatively you might pay 2-4*cashflow (single asset in high tax jurisdiction): here you have U$48m PA as current Cascadura (60mmcfd plus liquids) run rate and possibly U$120m annual run rate if ramped up by 3Q 2024 to 150mmcf/d. This gives valuations of U$96m to U$192m at low end production to U$ 240m to U$480m at the high end in about 12months time. Maybe Coho is U$20m, legacy assets U$20m but also current net debt offsets a lot of this. Lastly if the 200mmcf facility is filled up its 160mmcf/d net to them so about U$130m. The answer is valuation ranges can be very widely drawn, typically resource based valuations tend to be higher than just using trading multiples currently as the whole sector trading multiples are quite depressed currently. Further upside can clearly come from the continuous drilling campaign and we would hope that exploration wells from 3Q2024 and beyond might be possible.
Posted at 26/9/2023 07:30 by xxnjr
Touchstone Exploration Inc.

26 September 2023

CAPITAL MARKETS DAY AND RETAIL INVESTOR PRESENTATION

CALGARY, ALBERTA (September 26, 2023) - Touchstone Exploration Inc. ( " Touchstone " or the " Company " ) (TSX, LSE: TXP) is hosting a Capital Markets Day ("CMD") event for analysts and investors today at 9 a.m. BST at the offices of FTI Consulting.

At the CMD, Touchstone's senior management team will present further details regarding the Company's recently transformed production profile, the exciting geological profile in Touchstone's land package, as well as covering the work it is undertaking to set leading environmental, social and governance standards in Trinidad. The presentation will outline Touchstone's key drivers and areas of focus over the next five years to take advantage of its unique growth opportunities. No new material information will be disclosed about current trading.

A copy of the presentation slides will be made available on the Company's website later today.

If you would like to attend, please contact touchstone@fticonsulting.com to register your interest.

Retail Investor Presentation

President and Chief Executive Officer Paul Baay will also hold a presentation and Q&A for retail investors today via the Investor Meet Company platform, beginning at 3:30 p.m. BST.

The presentation is open to all existing and potential shareholders. Investors can sign up to Investor Meet Company for free and add to meet Touchstone via:
Posted at 09/9/2023 11:11 by pro_s2009
Shares Investor Evening (London) - LIVE EVENT

Wednesday 27 September 2023

abrdn New India, Anexo Group, ATOME Energy and Touchstone Exploration



Join Shares and AJ Bell for an evening of investment inspiration and get to meet the decision-makers.

The event on Wednesday 27 September in London will include:

• An opportunity for you to talk directly with the directors and ask your questions about the companies’ core strengths and their short and long-term business strategy

• Meet fellow investors and share your investing experience

• Complimentary drinks and snacks

More about the companies presenting:

abrdn New India (ANII) - Seeking world-class, well governed companies at the heart of India's growth First-hand quality seeker: intensive first-hand research and regular company engagement help us to identify world-class organizations that we believe can deliver sustainable long-term growth and weather Indian market volatility. Independent-minded investor: we are not afraid to be different by focusing on those companies and sectors that offer sustained potential to share in India’s long-term growth story, regardless of their index or sector weightings.

Anexo Group (ANX) - Anexo is a specialist integrated credit hire and legal services group focused on providing replacement vehicles and associated legal services to impecunious customers who have been involved in a non-fault accident. These individuals typically do not have the financial means or access to a replacement vehicle which allows the Group to charge credit hire rather than spot hire or GTA rates, recovering these charges from the at-fault insurer at no upfront cost to the individual.

ATOME Energy (AIM: ATOM), the only international green hydrogen and ammonia project development company on the London Stock Exchange. Green hydrogen and ammonia, created using 100% renewable energy, is a rapidly growing market, estimated to be worth over USD$100 billion by 2027. ATOME has a pipeline of 621MW+ of production capacity and growing.

Touchstone Exploration (TXP) is a Canadian-based upstream oil and gas exploration and production company currently active in the Republic of Trinidad and Tobago. It is an independent onshore oil producer in Trinidad.

Who Should Attend

The evening is a perfect opportunity for existing shareholders or potential investors to hear from the directors running the companies to explain their strategy and opportunity for investors and meet them over drinks after their presentations.

Evening timings
17.15 Registration and coffee
18.00 Presentations
Olivier Mussat, Chief Executive Officer - ATOME (ATOM)
Nick Dashwood Brown, Head of Investor Relations - Anexo Group (ANX)
Paul Baay, CEO - Touchstone Exploration (TXP)
abrdn New India (ANII)
20.05 Drinks reception and refreshments
21.00 Close

Venue
Novotel Tower Bridge, London EC3N 2NR

Register Now

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