Touchstone Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[sleveen] 16/11/2024 08:33

che7win


Don't forget that using boe/d flattens the curves vs MM/d.

Similar to charts using logarithmic scale vs linear scales.

[sandcrab2] 15/11/2024 21:12

Wasn’t this one of PRO’s bankers?

Where is PRO btw?

[che7win] 14/11/2024 17:27

So, we have an updated presentation today.And.....we have a new graph on slide 15 which shows that Cascadura production has, Mmm, how do I say this...RISENBefore we get carried away, I am thinking that the wells re-pressurise when brought offline, so I conclude that production from first two wells has more or less flattened after a year. htTps://www.touchstoneexploration.com/content/uploads/2024/11/Corporate-Presentation-November-13-Update.pdf

[flyinghorse1] 14/11/2024 09:37

To efficiently extract the NGL your plant needs to flash the gas to close to atmospheric and then re compress to export pressure.
They have revealed very little in way of plant schematics, compressor sizing etc.
Compressors don’t like wet gas so it’s also dried and the plant will be getting optimised , though they don’t mention rewheeling or the like ( compressor changes to suit conditions). It will all be designed around an expected range of gas rate and WGR/NGL ratios which in reality of production may change with rate and time.
I’m not a facilities engineer btw. Someone more knowledgeable may know more but provided info scant.
Compression in my opinion good as it will also allow the wells to get maximum reservoir recovery as long as liquid loading is not an issue ( tubing size vs liquid fall back into well vs being brought to surface as the whole production process is a flash process from reservoir sandface to well head ie a pressure drop exercise).

[flyinghorse1] 14/11/2024 09:28

The 4 day tie in shut down is likely due ( as someone said) to simultaneous operations and hot works ( weld etc) risk assessment. This will require staged shutdown, possible nitrogen blanketing ,do the work safely , then controlled restart.
It’s pretty normal stuff.
They will also have got useful pressure build up data as part of that , and likely flushed production on restart to part compensate for the shutdown.

[kaos3] 14/11/2024 07:21

HPotter - very insighttfull - so it is not mechanical but the design ... wow

[hpotter] 14/11/2024 05:35

From memory, the problem compressors are to recompress gas that is flashed off from from the oil. As there is much less oil than originally thought(lower gas production and matrix gas composition) the compressors were probably considerably oversized for the first wells.

[dunderheed] 13/11/2024 14:36

That was me actually.
"Total" meeting from memory?

[11_percent] 13/11/2024 14:25

Dinner, Bed and Breakfast....I remember a guy saying that in a meeting.....he did not last long.

[dunderheed] 13/11/2024 14:08

Actually it's Dinner, Bed and Breakfast I think?

[11_percent] 13/11/2024 14:01

11_percent. DBB = Double bleed and block?
Ref Discord - is that theory about the compressors based on any reality, or it is speculation passing as fact?

========================

DBB = Double Bed & Breakfast......lol.

Yes....Double block and bleed.

===

Compressors.......it was pure speculation on my part.....based on pure speculation their part, I think.
I don't have time to think about every post on the Discord.

However....the [lant seems to operating ok......but we dont know if the second hand compressors were ever fixed......or what the real story was/is. They might still be non operational and they tried to fix or relace them.....dont know.

Or they may have done something else that took 4 days.

[11_percent] 13/11/2024 14:01

11_percent. DBB = Double bleed and block?
Ref Discord - is that theory about the compressors based on any reality, or it is speculation passing as fact?

========================

DBB = Double Bed & Breakfast......lol.

Yes....Double block and bleed.

===

Compressors.......it was pure speculation on my part.....based on pure speculation their part, I think.
I don't have time to think about every post on the Discord.

However....the [lant seems to operating ok......but we dont know if the second hand compressors were ever fixed......or what the real story was/is. They might still be non operational and they tried to fix or relace them.....dont know.

[dunderheed] 13/11/2024 13:49

Yes it was JSE, but I can't be bothered to find it. You'd forgotten to add loans to the EV, I think you'd taken them away actually?!
I don't care either way, whether you remember or not ash by the way.

[spangle93] 13/11/2024 13:43

38480 ref reserves

Cascadura reserves will be increased because -2 was a delineation well, and -3 went beyond the fault where for sure no reserves were previously booked. I recognise that's not the point you were making though.

As for the faster decline rates, I don't think at this stage these would justify a write down of reserves. Where you might see a negative effect would be in the NPV calculations that accompany the reserves, because the CPR may justifiably make the case that you could recover the same reserves but need more wells capex and produce at a slower rate than envisaged.


11_percent. DBB = Double bleed and block?
Ref Discord - is that theory about the compressors based on any reality, or it is speculation passing as fact?

[ashkv] 13/11/2024 13:28

A request for the experts - given the higher than prior forecast decline rates for Cascadura wells so far - it is feasible that year end CPR report significantly writes down recoverable 2P reserves for the field/reservoir?

Thx

[ashkv] 13/11/2024 13:26

It wasn't JSE from my recollection - I know that firm inside out/has a simple capital structure!!! A typo error if ever - and I would have corrected the same.

TXP EV/Flowing Barrel given extremely low gas sold prices is "relatively" overvalued as compared to most other AIM E&P firms - for one HBR is trading a lower EV/Flowing Barrel than TXP.....

TXP SHARE PRICE-> 32.50p
TXP share price vs 52 Week low of 27.12p on 13 Aug 24-> 19.84%
TXP share price vs 52 Week High of 60p on 8 Dec 23-> 84.62%
Brent-> $72.00
Shares Outstanding (From Q3 2024 Results RNS)-> 236,382,000
Market Cap (GBP)-> £76,824,150
GBPUSD-> 1.275
Market Cap (USD)-> $97,950,791
Production Average Q3 2024-> 5,211
Production Average Q2 2024-> 5,432
Production Average Q1 2024-> 7,015
Production Average Q4 2023-> 8,504
2024 Re-Revised Mid-Guidance For Production (5600 to 6200 boe/d)-> 5,900
Guided YE 2024 Net Debt (Q3 2024 Results RNS)-> $32,000,000
Enterprise Value or EV (USD)-> $129,950,791
EV / Per Barrel (USD) 5,145 Boe/d Daily Production for Nov to Dec 2024 to meet low end of 2024 Guidance -> $25,258
EV / Per Barrel (USD) Q3 2024 Avg Production-> $23,923
EV / Per Barrel 2024 Mid-Guidance For Production-> $22,026
2P Reserves (Boe) Year End 2023-> 67,379,000
EV/2P-> $1.93

[dunderheed] 13/11/2024 13:15

I think it was jse wasn't it?

[ashkv] 13/11/2024 13:12

"They" it seems D Head - is goading me back to my truant self...

The number of EVs I post I might have made one odd error/even then please point to the same. I don't recall any as of late -> if you are unable to reference this error on my part I can only suggest it would be the right course to refrain from character assassination.

I am not looking to make friends on this chat just info from balanced folks. -

Would like to add that I have received more than a few PMs appreciating my analysis and can only comment that most contributors seldom share analysis other than their pronouncements and armchair expertise...

Just ran the calcs for Nov and Dec 24 TXP Average Production required to attain the low end of TXP re-revised guidance.

I am getting 5,145 boe/d based on provided figures for Jan to Sep 2024 and then the one off low Oct figure.

Could D'Head please confirm the same?

I am unsettled that 5,145 boe/d is the low end of daily production guidance for Nov to Dec 2024 with both of the new Casc wells in operation...

[homebrewruss] 13/11/2024 11:51

Presumably some welding etc required for the tie in?
Probably best to shut things down at that point 😀

[11_percent] 13/11/2024 11:28

kaos3,

No idea why it took 4 days shutdown to tie in the new plant.

I would have thought it would be shorter given that they knew that the expansion was on the cards and design the existing (Phase 1) plant to facilitate the rapid tie-in of the plant expansion.

[captainfatcat] 13/11/2024 11:06

Wouldn't it have been nice to have the positive flow test results after the Q3 update. Given the pen shortages in Trinidad surely sign off of the rns could have been arranged.

Amateur hour again.

[kaos3] 13/11/2024 10:55

11pc - thank you for an educated view on the plant expansion and testing separator (i did not know they exist lol as a special entity). how can you then explain to a slovenian jester - why the whole casca plant was out of operation for 4 days for a tie-in

as per usual i cant get it. makes no sense to me

ps - i would expect that the plant is designed in such a way, that any tie in does not stop the whole facility.
how unbelievable is that... probably my lack of knowledge i susspect. again.

[sleveen] 13/11/2024 10:40

OK, that's a good idea given the number of additional wells to drill.

[11_percent] 13/11/2024 10:04

sleveen,

That was my understanding.

It is ONLY PART of the expansion.

It lets them flow test and produce at the same time.