Touchstone Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[mount teide] 03/7/2018 18:52

Libya's oil production came to a virtual stoppage yesterday after force majeure has now been declared on crude oil loadings at all four of the Nation's oil export terminals - the combined daily production loss amounts to 850,000 bpd of crude oil.


'Libya’s Tripoli-based National Oil Corporation (NOC) is calling for sanctions against 46 individuals and entities seeking to run four oil ports that are now closed after the latest unrest took nearly all of Libya’s oil production offline.

In a letter to the UN sanctions committee and foreign embassies, Mustafa Sanalla—the chairman of the UN-backed NOC based in Tripoli—called upon the international community to back sanctions against persons and entities seeking to run four oil ports that were handed over to a rival oil corporation based in Benghazi.'

OilPrice.com today

[highly geared] 03/7/2018 18:30

Thanks MT
Looking at the enterprise value ( market cap + debt) , at c. £32-33 million and comparing this with likely annualised production, net backs and free cash flow, TXP can be considered fundamentally undervalued or ridiculously cheap.

But, that’s only part of the story. Considering the 2019 drill programme (risk/reward), TXP has the potential to multi bag.

The only downside is an oil price collapse but geo politically, I don’t see it and the impact of EV’s on the oil market is probably 10 years away.

Asiamet; yes , I will be there in 2023 when they are knocking out 50ktpa from BKM/Beutong or have been bought for £1 billion.

[mount teide] 03/7/2018 17:02

A close at a new high post the oil sector recession at 16.75p.

Current market cap: £21.75m.

[mount teide] 03/7/2018 16:21

L2: 4 v 5 / 16.0p v 17.5p

[mount teide] 03/7/2018 13:10

L2 strengthening: 3 v 1 / 16.0p v 17.0p

[mount teide] 03/7/2018 13:07

HG - good to see you've joined us - imo you've stepped aboard the Asia Met of the O&G small cap sector - great management with a proven track record of success, great assets with very high impact exploration upside and still an extremely modest valuation at this stage of the recovery phase of the commodity cycle!

[marvelman] 03/7/2018 12:58

Thanks both. I am sure we have all endured a little pain from some of our historical investments but usually best to take the opportunities that may arise from them where possible as with TRIN. My reservation here has always been the debt but am now persuaded on a number of other positives not the least of which is the rapidly increasing production level and what appears to be a very focussed BOD. However, already in pain from my investment here from not buying more at 15p...:-))

[mount teide] 03/7/2018 12:49

mm - likewise - i'm still smarting from averaging up with a further 6 figure purchase of TRIN averaging around 21.5p immediately prior to the announcement of the placing.

With the benefit of hindsight and from a short term perspective not one of my better decisions - but at the time based on all the information in the public domain it seemed to offer compelling value - until that hugely discounted placing reared its ugly head.

Still, considering the company and oil industry fundamentals, i think it will do well over 2 year outlook.

[highly geared] 03/7/2018 12:44

Marvel, I’ve bought c 140k shares at 15p and expect to at least double my money in 6-9 months. The market cap here is ridiculous relative to Bopd production, reserves, high impact well drilling H1 2019 and debt. About the most undervalued oiler out there.

[marvelman] 03/7/2018 12:31

Please don't remind me MT...still feeling the pain from TRIN and dithered with TXP until entry point @15p...

[mount teide] 03/7/2018 12:28

What a difference a month and a large placing(TRIN) can do to a company share-price performance.

Relative performance since TXP came to Aim last summer through to:

Early May 2018:
+55% TXP
+120% TRIN

Early June 2018:
+85% TXP
+40% TRIN

[rafieh] 03/7/2018 12:23

I've eyeballed charts for 20+ years. Purely based on the shape of the chart, a quick rise to 25p is not out of question.

[marvelman] 03/7/2018 12:16

Thanks MT...was wondering

[mount teide] 03/7/2018 12:06

L2 - 2 v 2 / 16.0p v 17.0p

[euclid5] 03/7/2018 11:51

Spangle, the BN has 60 Cad cents which equates to approx 35p GBP

[someuwin] 03/7/2018 11:49

No online buy quote avaialable.

[essential] 03/7/2018 11:24

Bought in yesterday. Great looking chart and 90+ stockrank

[awise355] 03/7/2018 11:06

Is this finally the re-rate

[mount teide] 03/7/2018 10:53

Thanks Spangle and Euclid - seems conservative since its based on an estimated 2,100 bopd average production target for 2019; which considering where TXP is now, expects to be by year end, and could reasonably expect to generate from a 20 well production development programme in 2019 suggests plenty of upside potential.

[fardels bear] 03/7/2018 10:47

Read that. Very little imagination that lot. A Nigerian oiler ffs and PMO, CNE, ENQ..They want paying for that?

[futuredlighter] 03/7/2018 10:44

this is looking great... break through and off she/he goes

[euclid5] 03/7/2018 10:43

sorry I can't post extract, but they give it a 60c / 35p TP in May 2018

[brasso3] 03/7/2018 10:40

First attempt at 16.5p.