Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Touchst EX Di LSE:TXP London Ordinary Share CA89156L1085 COM SHS NPV (DI)
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -2.00p -10.26% 17.50p 17.00p 18.00p 19.50p 17.50p 19.50p 342,854 10:34:07
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Oil & Gas Producers 18.8 3.3 -0.6 - 22.56

Touchst EX Di Share Discussion Threads

Showing 3501 to 3525 of 3525 messages
Chat Pages: 141  140  139  138  137  136  135  134  133  132  131  130  Older
DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
14/8/2018
14:28
Check post from morning
costax1654x
14/8/2018
14:28
I said 10-20 % down!
costax1654x
14/8/2018
13:00
How does the apparent US$4.8 million cost of the 4 additional 2018 wells square with the lower drilling costs previously discussed?
rossannan
14/8/2018
12:56
Mount TeideSo January in other words. Was it not January that he said at the AGM?
rossannan
14/8/2018
12:51
MT can you elucidate further with regard to your comments in post 2590 buddy - doesn't make sense to me but I'm only an angry Trin holder and I suppose we have lower iq's (or something like that anyways...)?!
dunderheed
14/8/2018
12:44
Subject to the submitted regulatory approvals to drill getting secured in a timely fashion, i would expect the first well of the programme to commence in line with Paul Baay's previous comments: following the November/December wet season.
mount teide
14/8/2018
12:42
MT - it was a humourous post but whilst we're 'at it' my average price for Trin is 16.26p matey and wtgr I respectfully, when asked, had posted my 'support' for Trin rather than TXP - not saying TXP isn't a decent enough buy even at this price - this was where my 'loyalties' lay? Regardless, Ross still beat your argument though buddy and, I don't really see any relevance to whether or not I am a holder?! Please elucidate on that point?
dunderheed
14/8/2018
12:38
Mount Teide, thanks for your comment on the Petrotrin arrangements. I hope to make it to 4th September's Oil Capital conference where Touchstone is presenting: hTTp://www.oilcapital.com/conferences I'll ask the question there.
mr. t
14/8/2018
12:36
Dunderhead - declaring that you're a TRIN holder still smarting at the huge surprise recent dilution, compounded by the relative outperformance of TXP would do wonders for your credibility!
mount teide
14/8/2018
12:32
Mount Teide On that basis, do you still think that that first Ortoire well will spud in Jan 2019 as PB suggested at the AGM or will Ortoire be pushed later into 2019? It pays to be realistic both about production expectations and timetables...
rossannan
14/8/2018
12:26
Ross - that calculation was based on the not unreasonable expectation that most of the 10 well programme would be drilled and on production by the end of the H1/2016 - as we've since seen, the commencement of the programme was delayed due to certification issues with one of the rigs, resulting in the production from seven of the wells getting pushed into H2. This means TXP has 11 new wells scheduled to come into production over the next 5 months - something the management of my TRIN investment tells me they need 18 months to do for 10 wells, immediately after announcing the dilution of my shareholding by 40% at a 40%+ discount to the previous share price high.
mount teide
14/8/2018
12:26
I've got that about 4-3 to Ross? Close but Ross just 'won' through!
dunderheed
14/8/2018
12:25
It's a growing company. Nit picking every barrel and day to day analysis is pointless. It's on an upward trajectory as it builds a higher/stronger production base. TXP just added a further significant holder recently. They've pushed oil production significantly since last year and there's no reason to doubt with near term wells to come on stream (increasing cash) that it won't continue to do so and increasing the drill programme in this current year as a result. Numerous development drilling locations. Continue to grow oil production from development locations. Continue to moderately increase reserves from dev drilling programme. Dedicated exploration assets for potential major reserve increases. Invest/don't invest - simple - or find something to be relaxed about!
zengas
14/8/2018
12:10
Mount TeideEven after that was ditched though, you continued to revise your expectations downwards:21/12/17somewhere in the range of 2,250 bopd to 2,500 bopd by next summer [summer 2018]12/07/18i estimate EOY [2018] production in the range of 2,250 - 2,500 bopd11/08/18a 2,250 bopd target to exit 2018 is a reasonable and realistic year end target
rossannan
14/8/2018
12:00
Ross - the early calculations were largely based on the up to 20 well programme initially proposed by Paul Baay - subsequently amended to an initial 10 well programme and now upped to 14 wells.
mount teide
14/8/2018
11:54
Mr.T - balance and well researched analysis - thanks for posting. Historically, Petrotin has taken a brokerage fee in a range of 11%-13% of the benchmark Brent price and pays end of month without fail - why it varies has never been explained - worth a question to Paul Baay at his next web presentation. Some TRIN shareholders recently attempted to pin their management on this question (TRIN gets a figure based on WTI from Petrotin) without really getting a satisfactory answer. Pure speculation - the calculation of the size of the discount we achieve from Petrotin may well be affected by the moving price differential between the Brent and WTI benchmarks.
mount teide
14/8/2018
11:52
Mount Teide You are just not going to apologise, are you? I think my skeptical approach to production trajectories is legitimate. If your production expectations are high, a placing always seems unlikely. Look though at how your own TXP production expectations have changed over the last 10 months: 19/10/17 Never mind the 2,000 Bopd by 2018, it could well be above 3,000 bopd by the end of 2018, and ALL SELF FUNDING (your emphasis)! 27/10/17 it could be closer to 3,000 bopd than 2,000 bopd [EOY 2018] 21/12/17 somewhere in the range of 2,250 bopd to 2,500 bopd by next summer [summer 2018] 12/07/18 i estimate EOY [2018] production in the range of 2,250 - 2,500 bopd 11/08/18 a 2,250 bopd target to exit 2018 is a reasonable and realistic year end target Remember how the December 2017 placing caught you out? Surely you must see a placing coming by the end of 2018 now. I suspect that that is what the market is seeing.
rossannan
14/8/2018
11:38
Ross - its good job you did't get into Asia Met at in 2015/16 - we've had 4 modest placings since, the latest at a 1,100 premium to the 2015/16 valuation - and the business is still considered materially undervalued compared to their peers by the covering analysts, who have a consensus 12 month price target some 20 times the 2015/16 valuation. 'I would have thought Ross that the level of debt was of more concern' TXP with a net debt of circa £6.5m has a debt to capital ratio below that of BP(38% with net borrowings of £40bn) - it is around the average of the major oil sector multi nationals. With the likely cash flow generation over the next 18 months - i am probably far from alone in having every confidence that Paul Baay, an economist by training who navigated TXP through the last oil sector recession far better than any of the other T&T onshore producers, including the TRIN management who came within a whisker of losing everything, will continue to manage the business in a similar way to the business he built from scratch to 20,000 bopd during the recovery stage of the previous oil market cycle.
mount teide
14/8/2018
11:37
You have to take Malcy with a pinch of salt. He may cover some companies like TXP that have something going for them but look at some of the other companies he covers and some of the shareholder-unfriendly BoDs that he heaps praise on.
rossannan
14/8/2018
11:31
HTTPS://www.malcysblog.com/ Touchstone Exploration 2Q results from TXP where production has risen by 11% to 1717 b/d from the 1st quarter where three wells and four recompletions were achieved. Netbacks generated an inevitable significant increase to $38.19 pb giving scope to up the number of wells to be drilled this year and net loss was reduced. The company has extended the $15m loan and repayments by a year which takes the pressure off, for now. I am looking forward to meeting Paul Baay again as our chat is way overdue.
pro_s2009
14/8/2018
11:22
For me the low risk drill plan, associated oil production increase, Ortoire upside, high gearing (I'm bullish on short to medium term oil prices), stable political environment, competent management and low valuation make TXP a compelling investment opportunity. I'm pleased to hear about the four extra drills this year, and expect to hear good production news in the coming weeks as recently drilled wells come online. However the financial aspects of today's results were below my expectations. That may be as much to do with my expectations as the results. I forecast CA$4.5m Q2 operating cash flow in post 1798: hTTp://uk.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=41781887&from=1798 Whereas today cash flow has been announced as CA$3.3m - 25% less. What's behind the difference? Here are the big things: 1) Q2 production was 1,717 bbls/d compared to my forecast 1,740bbls/d. I had expected early June's 1,821 bbls/d to continue throughout June, which it didn't for reasons well discussed on this bb. 2) Average Brent was reported as US$74.53 whereas I expected US$75. I checked on EIA's website and US$74.53 is the right number. I must have used a poor data source last time. 3) Realized sales price was CA$80.04, whereas I expected >CA$83. Part of my forecast was wrong as I got US$ Brent wrong, however this should have been cancelled out by the CA$ being weaker against the US$ in Q2. What else happened? TXP sells its oil to Petrotrin and Petrotrin determines the price, as a discount to Brent. That discount increased in Q2 compared to recent quarters. This is something I don't like about TXP, the price received for its oil is determined (as far as I can see) arbitrarily and opaquely by a third party. What's to stop Petrotrin insisting on greater discounts in the future? I need to learn more about this - if anyone can help please let me know. 4) Operating costs were more than I thought. I expected them to stay similar to Q1, but instead they increased from CA$2.7m to CA$3.0m. I was overoptimistic to assume flat operating costs while drilling and oil production increased. One thing I did like was that one of the key capital management ratios - net debt to trailing 12 months funds flow from operations - has improved from 1.7 in Q1 to 1.4 in Q2. It is likely to improve further as the low operating cashflow q3 & q4 2017 figures work their way out of the calculation as this year goes on. Based on TXP's current capital structure and cash flow, I do not agree with the logic of those saying an equity raise is likely. It is unnecessary, unless the oil price declines markedly or costs rise significantly more than expected. TXP gave some assurance in the results too: "We expect our liquidity position to be stable going forward as the new wells drilled in the quarter are placed onto production and optimized." In short, one good thing (future prospects maintained or improved) and one bad thing (historical figures not as good as I hoped) from today's results. One other good point - I've learned something delving into the detail. I'm pleased to hold TXP, and expect to be well rewarded over the next year or two.
mr. t
14/8/2018
11:21
Mount Teide Will you please just accept that I was correct about those December 2017 workovers and that I was not, as you suggested, being disingenuous? You may not like my cautious and skeptical approach to production figures but my experience is that it pays to be as realistic as possible from the outset so that you do not have to constantly revise your expectations downwards.
rossannan
14/8/2018
11:14
Esmeralda That is all fair comment, I have just been focusing on production since that RNS on Thursday that triggered me cashing out. For a while I have made it clear how likely I think a placing is by the end of the year and with the CAPEX for the 4 additional wells now announced this seems even more likely.
rossannan
14/8/2018
11:02
Ross - carrying out an average of 5-6 well recompletions a year has historically at a stabilised performance of 10 bopd per well over the following year, generated sufficient additional production to offset the low historic field decline of 6-7% a year. This is the key data to focus on - since it is far less safe to use short term data to attempt to draw conclusions with any reliability, particularly since in some quarter periods the well recompletions may have been carried out towards the end of one quarter and near to the beginning of the following - also in early Q1/2018 two primary zones of wells initially drilled in Q2/2017 were perforated and put on production further completing the calculations.
mount teide
14/8/2018
11:02
A bit of both I think Esmeralda. They can roll over some debt imo. But they need cash to fund drilling too and I'm a bit worried about them signing up Range (RRDSL/ RRL) to do the drilling. RRL are a mess and going bust probably.
meep
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