Tbf Edmate I've just listened to the 20 second or so clip you refer to and he's only relaying a. n. other's views, expressing none himself and clearly saying he knows nothing about this company |
I wonder if the reaction today is solely due to this, I guess it’s essentially acting as a sell tip for some |
Aah well, its a good opportunity for weak holders to be replaced by the more committed |
I rate Paul Scott but in his 28/09 weekly small cap value podcast following the TIME 25/09 results, he states that stockopedia writer Roland Head gave it an amber green rating with a reasonable valuation. Listen on acast 28/09 from 51.20 mins.
[...]
In contrast to his analysis Friday where he said he didn't like it at all.
Bit contradictory |
Paul is an excellent analyst but when he and Graham Neary were both on Stockopedia, Graham almost always did the analysis of finance companies.
PS The only coverage on Stockopedia was after the interims, written by Roland, and GREEN/AMBER at 55p, I.e generally positive |
Time presenting this Wednesday...
Shares Investor Evening (London) - LIVE EVENT - 13 November 2024
Wednesday 13 November 2024
Ashoka India Equity Investment Trust, Investment Evolution Credit, Pantheon Infrastructure and Time Finance
Join Shares and AJ Bell for an evening of investment inspiration and get to meet the decision-makers.
The event on Wednesday 13 November in London will include:
An opportunity for you to talk directly with the directors and ask your questions about the companies core strengths and their short and long-term business strategy
Meet fellow investors and share your investing experience
Complimentary drinks and refreshments
The following companies will be presenting:
...
18.00 - 18:30
Time Finance
James Roberts, FD - Time Finance (TIME)
Ed Rimmer, CEO - Time Finance (TIME) |
Interesting to see Paul and Paul not liking a stock that’s doing really well and very undervalued. That’s a hard ignore from me, not their cup of tea but hard to ignore Times performance. Also agreed they will do badly in a recession, but for a few years now people have been fear mongering a recession that simply isn’t coming. Everything’s fine, noise blocked out. |
 Just a further comment, I wonder sometimes whether these webcast noise makers should just stick to commentary about stocks they actually are up to date with. These people aren't gurus and often have some howlers in their own trading history.
I'll point out Paul Hill's enthusiastic ramping of SED and BELL to name just two out of many that are/were bargepoles, and anyone with a bit of business nous and able to glance at some basic financials could see this, but apparently not the 'experts'.
I like Paul Scotts financial analysis on a company, but even that is no guarantee of an outcome either way, and in this case, his info seem to be based back in the days of OPM rather than the current iteration of TIME, and when it was OPM, the business was low turnover with poor asset backing - lending cash to hairdressers to buy a hairdryer and coffee machine - awful businesses anyway. Paul Scott is useful for assisting in financial analysis but he also has a very mixed bag when it comes to his own investing track record.
Ian Smith took over and changed the structure of the business entirely, moving into new sectors with better assets and asset backing, he had an experienced understanding of the risks involved and how to de-leverage them.
The current managers have further developed and improved on this adding invoice financing - a growth area vertical with decent margins. It is just not the same business as when it was OPM.
There are always 'what ifs' with any investment, the question one must ask is - are the risks known and understood and what is one's own view of these risks.
TIME is performing and performing well, I haven't seen any reason why this will change. Always best to get educated and follow ones own research and not other people's commentary on Youtube. |
Not sure about selling being overdone, I'd say unwarranted! |
Selling seems overdone this morning. Quality business with quality management. I wish I had the funds available to buy some more at these levels. One share i'm happy to hold on to. Good buying opportunity in my eyes |
Yes that's an excellent point Denis and perhaps the most relevant (secured lending).
In fact one strategic goal of the new management team at TIME has been to increase the proportion of the secured book - an area they can claim success in.
Have to say I'm shocked at how such a low volume of trades can move the share price - perhaps those with £37k in their pockets right now may be tempted to reverse that fall. |
and also Paul Hill who holds Argentex which has tanked around 60% this year. (Apologies to anyone on here that holds AGFX). |
Is this the same Paul Scott that use to go on drunken Twitter spats all night and had to withdraw (maybe he was removed?) from the platform. He has a large following who blindingly follow his lead but he also has a very mixed investment performance over the years. Whilst I'd prefer not to see the share price drop like this morning I think this will be just short term noise on the share price |
Agreed. Don't really think Lloy is a fair comparable.. |
Its an argument but TIME is forecast to grow at 25% this year and 15% thereafter
To date they've had a record of outperforming forecasts.
The same cannot be said of LLOY which they quote |
Agreed Joe Say, it sounded to me like Paul Hill didn't know the old management had changed. That said, they did highlight the risk on this which I guess is valid point. Bad debt, arrears etc.
Also a recent article here that I wouldn't say is overpositive. May be another factor leading to a touch of negative sentiment and price drop.. |
One negative they raised was the management - unless a new team had been appointed.
In the context of their argument - that indeed is the case with the CEO and chair both being appointed in 2021, and 2 non-executives since.
They also mention that lenders can pull finance - but the recent £65m facility from NatWest for example is a committed one.
Asset finance is undertaken using block facilities where the company commits some of its own money and then borrows the rest (under fixed rates once drawn and with no facility fee)
The other borrowings they have is CBIL's loans - which continue to be paid down.
Indeed as the board notes in the Annual Report - the funding risk they face is not being able to obtain funds during a period of growth should this be faster than expected (i.e. they would be held back - rather than having the rug pulled from under their feet) |
I added as well. Time Finance are doing really well and in my top five holdings now. Their key metrics are constantly improving and extra funding is being acquired readily. TIME will be doing two presentations face to face at the Mello10 conference in Derby on the 20th November and hundreds of investors are going to be there....All welcome |
Added a few |
Agree it is certainly working! |
They weren't criticising the business performance, they just didn't like the business model - a model which is working by the way. |
I saw that. Currently can't see capital from banks being withdrawn as TIME is doing well
Price recovering now
However there is no doubt this is high risk |
Its off a bit today because Paul Hill & Paul Scott aren't fans of the stock.
See 64.1 mins into this video. |
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