Themutual.Net Share Discussion Threads

[the analyst] 24/10/2008 14:54

Does anyone have a handle on the complaints that AF have been getting about the new system over at the afu bulletin board over the past month or so?

Is it a serious issue that is losing money and resulting in affiliates moving to different platforms (a couple of posts mention that)?

Or is it just a couple of people moaning about an issue that has now been resolved?

[the analyst] 24/10/2008 14:52

Maybe the bookings are exploratory trips - people checking out new countries to live in for the long-term?

[old boy returns] 24/10/2008 14:47

Anecdotally the travel sector seems to be holding up pretty well so far. I know a couple of people in the holiday industry who say bokkings are up on last year and I heard a chap from an activity holiday company taking part in a 'recession chat show' on Radio 5 today and he was saying they are 20% up on last year. Perhaps people just want to escape all the doom and gloom and so are booking to have something to look forward to.

AF have a very heavy travel sector bias so hopefully they are holding up OK sa far. The current share price is pricing in a massive fall in earnings.

[the analyst] 24/10/2008 14:19

TAPPS is 100% euro earnings, right?

If you take a look at the exchange rate and compare to this time last year, you can see that it could make a big difference. I don't think we're talking pennies, hirsch

[valustar1] 24/10/2008 14:14

Are we sure we have earnings above costs in US$!

[coffeelito] 24/10/2008 13:41

It will certainly help, dont be so quick to dismiss. Is most of our foreign earning in Euros or is there much in dollars?

[hirschnathan] 24/10/2008 12:51

I dont think relying on the extra couple of k will make the big break

[hirschnathan] 24/10/2008 12:51

Does anyone know if tmn hedge currencies?

Penny pinching?

[the analyst] 24/10/2008 12:10

Does anyone know if tmn hedge currencies?

If not, they should be benefiting from the weakness of the pound of late...

[hirschnathan] 24/10/2008 11:36

Giles Parnwell, Head of Travel Marketing at AffiliateFuture says, "Despite the current economic downturn overall, the online travel market is predicted to achieve double digit growth in January 2009.

[old boy returns] 23/10/2008 11:55

As well as the terrible market and economic conditions I think it is the uncertainty which the market does not like in the case of TMN. I think this has been caused largely by opaque communication by the company as to how things are going following the combination of TMN / TAPPS and IBG. On the face of it we should be expecting earnings along the lines of the analysis which Stemis and myself did yesterday (2008/9 PBT of £5.5M+). The company have said nothing to suggest otherwise other than mentioning a fall in demand by financial services clients for e-mail marketing. They have told us that Q1 2008/9 was inline with management expectations yet the brokers forecasts are around 30% lower than one would expect based on the information we have been given by the company. One would be right to be somewhat suspicious until we are given some clarity on how things are going.

BTW I would expect that the delay in the AR is a result of having a larger group to report on following the acquisitions of IBG and TAPP's.

[omlaysause] 23/10/2008 10:48

Looking at the aim chart and TMN maybe it is only following the general downturn and not specific to TMN??

[neilrr] 23/10/2008 10:36

"Why they haven't come out with a statement stating they don't know of any reason for the drop in SP"

One would have to conclude they do.

[omlaysause] 23/10/2008 09:30

Still it keeps dropping.
There is definitely something not right here.

"He tried to assure me that we should not read anything into the fact that the Annual Report has not been released yet!"

Emmmm ...... not convinced.

Why they haven't come out with a statement stating they don't know of any reason for the drop in share price is beyond me.

[valustar1] 23/10/2008 07:02

I spoke to peter Harknes re the Annual Report and AGM date earlier this week.

Apparently the AGM date is under discussion at present.

He tried to assure me that we should not read anything into the fact that the Annual Report has not been released yet!

[davidosh] 23/10/2008 02:00

Just out of interest has anyone emailed the directors to ask what the reason is for the differences outlined above ?

When the annual report is coming would be good to know too ?

A date for the AGM as well ?

At this rate the interims will be out before the Agm..

[the analyst] 22/10/2008 21:35

"the two (board and market expectations) should be broadly 'in line' with each other"

I agree, that should be the case, but more than often (recently) this has not been the case for many companies on AIM.

[old boy returns] 22/10/2008 20:42

valustar - as I understand it the two (board and market expectations) should be broadly 'in line' with each other as:

1. The company provides guidance to brokers based on which they produce their forecasts.

and

2. Companies are required to notify the market if trading / events cause their expectations to shift materially (10% I think) from current market expectations (ie house broker's forecasts).

"except of course 'in line with the Board's expectations' is not the same as in line with market expectations"

[valustar1] 22/10/2008 20:35

except of course 'in line with the Board's expectations' is not the same as in line with market expectations

[old boy returns] 22/10/2008 18:33

Thanks Stemis - it is certainly very hard to reconcile the current brokers' forecasts with the historic performance of TMN plus the supposedly 'earnings enhancing' acquisitions and the most recent comment from the company with the results announced 6 weeks ago which was:

"The Group has started the current financial year well with the first quarter figures in line with the Board's expectations."

[stemis] 22/10/2008 17:17

do you have any high yielding preference shares on your radar at present

Funnily enough I have been buying some HBOS 9.25% irred prefs (HBOA). Currently quoted at 78.5p so yielding 11.8%. Due to pay half year dividend on 1 December (ex div on 5 November).

[old boy returns] 22/10/2008 16:42

Stemis - O/T I know and hope you don't mind me asking but do you have any high yielding preference shares on your radar at present? I always remember picking up the idea of RSA Prefs from you a few years ago when they were yielding over 13% and I did very well out of them.

[old boy returns] 22/10/2008 16:39

Thanks Stemis - saves me from doing it when I am feeling a bit less lazy ! Do you have a link to a broker's note which that £4.19M forecast comes from? It would be interesting to see how that forecast breaks down between the divisions and how they explain the fact that the forecast is so much less than the sum of the orignal business plus the 'earnings enhancing in the first year' acquisitions. My feeling is that it will be the bulk of the original TMN business and TAPP's (ie e-mail database marketing) which will be hardest hit by the downturn as those are 'pay whatever the results' forms of advertising and the financial servives sector forms a significant part of the client base.

[stemis] 22/10/2008 16:25

So total PBT before benefits of cost saving synergies, cross-selling etc. would be £4.54M.

The normalised profit (before share options, goodwill etc) for IBG was £1.40m which would take it to £5.02m. The PBT for TMN quoted above includes £0.81m of intangible amortisation. Adjust for that gives £5.83m.

The forecast for 2009 is £4.19m. Something is not firing on all cylinders.

Having said that the market cap is only £10.9m.