Themutual.Net Share Discussion Threads

[stemis] 21/2/2009 13:48

Dont you guys use stop losses ?

No disrespect but stop losses are a traders tool. You're a trader and good luck to you but most of the IBG investors were long term holders who bought and believed the story (which in terms of AF seems pretty much intact). Small caps like IBG have a very volatile share price, low liquidity and high spreads. Trading in and out is a recipe for losing buckets just on transaction costs alone. If you look at the graph



you will see that stop losses would have triggered several times during 2005 and 2006 as the price made its way from low single figures to the 30's.

Many of the holders believed IBG was on its way to 100p or more. Of course we'd all like to call the top but the mistake was not selling when IBG announced its 'strategic review'. In retrospect Maz had lost his bearings and it was all down hill from there

However it's all in the past now and we need to look forward.

I can't believe Danson would be interested in some unrelated business reversing into TMN. I suspect its an online marketing type business but larger (or at least more valuable) than TMN. Maybe he's lost faith in Smith et al and sees a different management team taking TMN forward. At the moment who'd blame him.

[fragilelittlepetal] 21/2/2009 12:55

8trader ... I would certainly hope so

Heres my take on TMN for what its worth ... some of its rehashing old info ... but hope you stick with it ...

TMN in 2003/4 was doing OK but with a very average product and management team.
It made some good acquisitions, EDR, Tapps and IBG were all profitable, growth companies. I-d Factor was early stage, losing money but ready to grow and turn the corner ....

After each acquisition, TMN allowed, constructively or otherwise, the management team and/or founders to walk away (the innovators and revenue earners) and turned these individual profit making companies into a larger, less profitable entity. In some cases the management or founders started similar businesses shortly after.

The people who REALLY knew about their niche sector of online business, and thus could adapt to the fast-changing industry walked out of the door .... quite literally.

TMN paid a lot for goodwill in their acquisitions ... then promptly lost a lot of that value within months as the key people "resigned".

Leaving the running of the all businesses effectively down to Mark Smith ... he was appointed to the board on 01-04-04, so if you need to know a bit more about him, look up the announcement.

Now they're all online data and media businesses.

TMN's brought to the attention of Mike Danson, who's trousered 150 million-ish from the sale of Datamonitor (you could say he knows a bit about publishing, media, data and buying & selling businesses) building up Progressive Media Group, (and acquiring SPG) by his old mate, & The New Chairman Peter Harkness. Danson buys in, increasing his stake to over 10% shortly after Tangent show an interest @ c 55p, enough to call an EGM. The management team then fight off the Tangent offer by putting in one of their own ... which fails at 70p. Danson continues building up his stake to c.29% at an average of c 45p.

Then share price falls ... and falls ... and falls
Then the profit warning and the share price falls further still.
Now with the share price @ 3.5p, the company's worth 3 million (!!!) ... far less than they paid for some of their acquisitions!
The business was ridiculously priced (even in this mad market!).
Some of the ex-directors and founders of their acquisitions started buying back in ... and IMHO ... its cheap as chips!!!

Potential suspects for the reverse takeover?
#1 - Danson or one of his vehicles, (neatly side-stepping the 12-month highest price rule if he were to succeed)
#2 - any one of the other online businesses who've some loose change in their pockets and see how cheap this company really is,
#3 - some of the ex-staff/directors/ founders who still have shares or have been acquiring shares and would want to change the management and make the business competitive once again
#4 - none of the above ...

I personally, as a long-term holder, would be gutted if anyone got their hands on TMN at anything like its current market cap. Or to see the current management team rewarded for their erosion of shareholder value!

It looks as though it might be up to the minority shareholders to stop any monkey business going on ...?
Guess we'll know what the offer is soon enough though ...
Anyone for an EGM?

[8trader] 21/2/2009 11:04

Sorry, i took you both off filter.

Tmn was on my monitor, i saw all these large block trades go through
at around mid price when 3.25-4p, i checked online and it was sell 250k
at mid price and buy just 5k at 4p, that's what really ticks the boxes
for me when it comes to trading, something is going on and you can buy
online so i bought a few times over the phone, i dont really get into
the history of a stock unless i end up holding it a while but i felt
my timing was good because something indeed "is going down" here.

Dont you guys use stop losses ?

So i dont really know if a name is so and so because after a long week
i ask the question then went straight out and hoped some kind person
would answer the question because i'm too lazy to find out myself.

What about me then in at 4p, do you reckon i will get a good return ?

[stemis] 21/2/2009 10:09

Of course maybe they are going to reverse in some other affiliate marketing company to give AF scale, Maz is going to take charge again and the last year will be like a bad dream!

It's just never a dull moment here, is it.

[8trader] 21/2/2009 08:31

Thanks Mark.

[stemis] 20/2/2009 20:28

Definately cry

[valustar1] 20/2/2009 20:07

Not your fault as you appear to be a trader but that question makes the rest of us laugh or is it cry!!

[8trader] 20/2/2009 16:38

A Maziar Darvish added 90k before the suspension to go over 4%.

Is he a director or ex director ?

[marben100] 20/2/2009 16:37

Well, well, well... looks like garth may have hit the nail on the head. Maz has been picking a few up quietly in the background. Wonder whether he & Morris have teamed up?

[8trader] 20/2/2009 14:10

Still possible to trade if you can find somebody to match your buy
or sale with like the 25k showing today at mid price, in the old days
they would show as X trades but trade types dont show anymore.

[dumbarton2] 20/2/2009 10:56

Yes a reverse takeover implies a smaller co takimng over a larger co but the RNS does not make clear which is the larger company !!!!

Is it TMN been take over or TMN attemptinmg to take over a larger co that is the question.

I cant see however TMN taking over a larger co following the profit warning so that suggests to me TMN has had an offer and they did not want the share price to race ahead thus and predator turning away.

[jecs] 20/2/2009 01:25

TMN Group in new sale talks
by Daniel Farey-Jones, Brand Republic 19-Feb-09, 12:10

LONDON - Digital marketing and online research group TMN Group has started talks with an unidentified company about a reverse takeover.

TMN, which owns Affiliate Future and email marketing planner and buyer EDR, issued the news yesterday and requested its shares be suspended from the Alternative Investment Market.

In a typical reverse takeover scenario, which allows a private company to take over a listed company, such as TMN, and become public, TMN would issue a large enough number of new shares to the other company that it would give that company's directors control of TMN.

Before TMN issued the statement its share price jumped as high as 50% above its closing level on Tuesday of 4p.
TMN attracted interest from more than one buyer in early 2008, rejecting a £40m offer from marketing services group Tangent in March and then seeing a £52.8m management buyout offer fail in July after lack of private equity funding.
Its market capitalisation now stands at around £3-4m after the collapse in global stockmarkets and its announcement of a £476,000 post-tax loss for the six months to October 31.
TMN owns list manager TMN Media, shopping and travel offers website operator TMN Publishing, Netherlands email marketing specialist Tapps and online research outfits The ID Factor and ICD Research.

[8trader] 19/2/2009 20:20

Plot thickens....another holding rns !

James Morris bought just under 900k on the 17th so he went over 4% and
had it not been for the suspension he probably would have more.

Lets face he seems to have been in a big hurry to get a decent stake so
he must be connected with the reverse takeover !

Thoughts

[warrhead] 19/2/2009 13:46

Well, I will be very happy if you are right. And until we see the next statement it is anybodies guess.

[ashleighp] 19/2/2009 13:25

No deal is a foregone conclusion - we have the opportunity to vote against any deal if we see fit. At the moment though it would be good just to get some more details of what is proposed so that we can our speculation. There's certainly some interesting theories abounding. My personal view is that a tie up with a company in the same market is most likely. I don't ascribe to the view that TMN is being used as a shell for an unrelated business to reverse into to get a listing, with the bulk of the existing business being sold off.

[warrhead] 19/2/2009 13:05

I'm sure Mr Danson will be critical in deciding what happens.

[pelleeds1980] 19/2/2009 11:22

Did you buy in yesterday 8 Trader or earlier?

[kenatbabken] 19/2/2009 11:20

If they are raising cash in the market its likely to be highly dilutive and
heavily discounted.Danson started up an investment vehicle last year as was
mentioned on here at the time so he could be using that to finance any deal and
then he,ll own most of the shares.It would not surprise me if it was Affiliate
Window as that would make sense rather than a close fit to any of TMN,s other
business,s as they are clearly not working

[8trader] 19/2/2009 10:46

What about that Morris chap, bit of a conincedence he buys 3% the
day before a reverse takeover, he must have something to do with it.

I'm still confident of a nice profit out of this.

[omlaysause] 19/2/2009 10:23

I'm sure Mr Danson will have a big say on what happens. I can't see him throwing away his investment too readily.
Has anyone any idea on the timescales?

[warrhead] 19/2/2009 09:39

Marben is correct. A reverse is generally where the company usually issues a ton of paper to acquire a much bigger business (i.e. doesn't require any cash funding). The management team of the bigger business usually end up running the company and the old business that is doing the acquiring may subsequently (or as part of the deal)be sold (often to its old management). The shareholders therefore can end up holding shares in a totally different business in maybe a totally different sector. The big company acquired gets a stockmarket quote without having to go through the inconvenience of having to go through the more onerous IPO regulatory and cost procedures and the smaller company shareholders usually get diluted to oblivion but may end up holding a small stake in a better (or worse) business.

Very hard to call therefore what this means for TMN shareholders. It is possible that TMN will be acquiring a business in a related area and it will become part of a larger group but I would not be surprised if TMN is being used as a shell for something unrelated and the existing business will be sold probably for a song to management (e.g. maybe for the approximate value of the debt c.£2m) - i.e. a lot cheaper than the 50p a share they were proposing a few months back. Unusual to suspend shares on early stage talks, probably worried about the share price going up and making the cost of the shell too high for the bidder.

[marben100] 19/2/2009 00:19

A "reverse takeover of the Company" implies that it's another company making an offer for TMN but that the transaction will occur by TMN asborbing the bidder rather than the reverse. Shares in the new entity would be issued to the bidder in consideration for either cash or something else of value the bidder brings to the table.

It is likely that the transaction is taking this form because the bidder is unlisted and would acquire a listing by this means.

hashertu and garth are thinking along the right lines IMO.