Themutual.Net Share Discussion Threads

[hirschnathan] 29/7/2008 19:18

scrooge

are you an affiliate, have you tried af new interface? could you explain how its worse than google analytics?



The problem with affiliate networks is the fraudulent registrations you pick up from loyalty systems in the networks(like mutualpoints).
Thats what a networks job is
I dont know if you know the whole fiasco with quidco and aw, but go to the a4uforum and read about it, but this blog is interesting to understand what cashback sites offer

[hirschnathan] 29/7/2008 19:13

If we look at other players in the affiliate network market place like DGM they have completely tonked. Google has just moved into the affiliate market place and I bet they will scoop up every client out there because of the value added applications they can offer like Google analytics.

keep dreaming, sign up and see if you can get anywhere with them.

Affiliate networks are all anout relationships, merchant-affiliate network-merchant-affiliate, without care and with plenty money, google may attract some merchants, but for helping with making real money, like helping with feeds, callbacks implementation, google wont stand a chance. I work with all the networks, and one I shelved for not getting any help.
If a merchant or affiliate has an issue, waiting for 3 days for a reply, will not get them anywhere.

[scr00ge] 29/7/2008 17:12

Hi BAHEID101

The problem with affiliate networks is the fraudulent registrations you pick up from loyalty systems in the networks(like mutualpoints). Also you mention fast growth but if we look at their activity graph on Alexa (the industry accepted way of ranking sites) you can see Affiliate Future is dropping like a stone:


So more costs and salaries will up the overheads again?!? This is not going to generate 20x revenue & profits in the short/medium term. So on this point my valuation is correct.

If we look at other players in the affiliate network market place like DGM they have completely tonked. Google has just moved into the affiliate market place and I bet they will scoop up every client out there because of the value added applications they can offer like Google analytics.

So lets look at your next point that email marketing is a bright spot in the marketing mix. Yes agreed it can deliver instant results (MEASURABLE-durrr) when an email campaign is sent, but its longevity is questionable. Web sites will always want clicks its just that I question whether sending out millions of emails per day has a long term future - nobody every actually wants to receive emails. Deliverability is the ongoing issue and again there is an exposure to increased cost to ensure delivery. Increased cost means less profit. I should think the financial market has completely dried up with the crunch. So sales are thus down and they are probably missing targets, again we are not going to find this magic 20x explosion in sales and profit.

So again I say that this current price is correct and there needs some drastic changes to get confidence back in this stock or it will slide further.

[baheid101] 29/7/2008 15:39

Scooge

You've take on the business is fairly harsh

the move to CPA is precisely why IBG is an attractive company - it is a profitable fast growing CPA NETWORK? one of about 5-6 in the UK that have spent the past five years building a scaled and sustainable business. CPA networks are getting larger and larger slices of advertising budgets and IBG/Affiliate Future is well placed, with a beefed up management team and a number of new innovative tools in the pipeline to accelerate growth from here.

Email marketing - SPAM is not new news and email, like CPA/affiliate marketing, is also benefitng from increasing budgets from advertisers. Why? because its MEASURABLE. The trend you referred to is absolutely correct - advertisers want a measurable return on investment, and this is why email marketing, TMN's core business, is in one of the few bright spots in the marketing mix that are getting more money thrown at them. The problem is more about financial services concentration within the client base - which is a genuine weakness and is being addressed. Same with IBG's exposure to the travel sector (new management are aggressively targeting other vertical markets)

[bonio10000] 29/7/2008 13:36

Maz the genius

IBG holders well and trully shafted.

[scr00ge] 28/7/2008 16:05

TMN is an interesting one - they are cash rich but the problem is they are now not worth much more that when they floated. Thus why invest in a risky business which is AIM listed whose share price is volatile and the stock doesn't pay a dividend.

How are they risky?

Their main product is email marketing and with the prevalance of SPAM their campaigns are suffering as filtering technologies become more powerful. Thus the opening rates of their campaigns is faltering and the revenue they can achieve from a database is declining.

The online market is moving from a CPM model (price per 000s email delivered) to a CPA model of "I pay only on results" (cost per acquisition). Thus again they have a riskier revenue stream.


They now have monster overheads over over 250 staff and I am sure it makes the management feel important but surely web based business should automate and reduce the level of staff.

They are flat lineing as a business so they have had to acquire other firms to increase sales, they have developed nothing in-house for years which has been a hit - plum offers is getting tonked by the major players like clash media. As a web business they should be achieving exponential growth through in-house products - not by acquireing dog companies like IBG. The sales go up but so do the overheads.

The credit crunch is hitting the advertising industry hard and if we look at Trinity Mirror and other companies ad revenue funded they are having a tough time. I would expect another profits warning come sept.

The management seam to be dead set on taking over the business themselves instead of returning shareholder value. Do they have our interests at heart?

This Danson Issue - why did he buy all these shares? I did notice that Peter Harkness used to be on the board of Datamonitor - could this be connected?



I used to be a big follower of TMN but the share price now looks about right (p/e of 5). If there was something which could explode their revenues by 20 times (then a p/e of 20+ would be appropriate) but I cant see where this is going to come from.

If they want to get a new batch of investors interested in the share price then pay a dividend and return some value to some long suffering investors. You might even get some institutional pension funds investing if they can see a stable dividend stream going forward. More demand for shares = increase price.

In my opinion they need to innovate or they will go the way of IPT and the slide on this stock is not over yet. Sept is make or break.

[outsizeclothes.com] 28/7/2008 00:22

I'm in.
I'll target £3.6m, with £4.6 next and £5.5 following, which, from this year's figures, will be good growth. Realistically it will take 18 months to rebuild city confidence after this last while's shenagans.
But this is a solid cash generator in a growing industry, - not a potential-money-loser-from-credit-crunch-crasher, so interest will pick-up again.

[stemis] 25/7/2008 08:05

Indeed although Ken's point I guess was that, if the TNG offer had gone ahead, their offer (19.14p cash plus 2.572 TNG shares) we would now equate to 30.4p. So not much further ahead from where we are now, although its debatable where the share price of TNG would be if it had TMN as well.

[hirschnathan] 24/7/2008 17:45

ken

Profit warning was in offline. online saw massive growth

[sseajack] 24/7/2008 16:42

yep...looks like every trade above 29.0p is a buy.

[muffinhead] 24/7/2008 16:40

Just looking at the trades over the last week, seems someone is accumulating at this level. Not surprised really considering company prospects and and good balance sheet.

[kenatbabken] 24/7/2008 12:11

Profit Warning from Tangent today,It would of meant a double whammy if TMN had
been taken over by them.

[valustar1] 21/7/2008 17:06

You are right about the results the analyst

The only twist is that their web site nows says the results are scheduled for the 4th August, having been updated from the 8th July.

[the analyst] 21/7/2008 16:33

I think that before the latest statement, someone here phoned the company and was told they were going to report beginning of August.

This has since changed, though - after the takeover failed the results date has moved back to the beginning of September. I'm not sure why they need more time. Perhaps they have quite a bit of business to get through over the next few weeks and would prefer to update on the first four months of trading along with the results.

[pihom] 21/7/2008 14:47

Let's hope so. BTW am interested to know where people have found that the accounts are comming out 1st week of August. Reading the reports, etc. etc. I got the impression (unless its a typo) that it was the 1st week of September (1 1/2 months later)

I wonder why they now need so much longer? Usually the delays is not a positive indication of their accounts department and the FD's knowledge of all the business units.

Let's hope it had something to do with the takeover, and that's why there is a long delay :)

[the analyst] 21/7/2008 14:10

Is there a possibility that there will be at least some benefits from the attempted buyout process that has taken place?

Just thinking that directors will have had to focus very hard on where they are going to take the company to maximise value over the next three to five years. They will have had to make an in depth analysis of every aspect of the business and how it is to be developed in order to justify to August Equity how they intend to make them a good profit from the buy-out

So, perhaps the management now have a much clearer idea of where the company is and where they are going to take it going forward than they otherwise would have?

I think the idea of a meeting with management is a good one as it would give the directors an excellent opportunity to help explain to investors what they have achieved over the last few months and where they see the business going forward

[pihom] 21/7/2008 13:34

It seems that media is still tarnished, be it print, online or whatever.

TMN appears to have a solid footing, and a franchise of sorts (access to database), as for me I came on the IBG boat.

[stemis] 18/7/2008 13:16

It looks like Canaccord have dropped their 2009 forecast as well. Down from pre-tax of £6.96m to £5.47m.

[the analyst] 18/7/2008 12:00

New note out from St Helens today. Expectations dropped based on the weakness at EDR in the last update and current climate. Price target of 54p represents a PE of 10x on 2008 earnings and values them 20% below peers that trade on 12.5x.

Pre-tax
(m)

2008 (E)
3.8

2009 (E)
6.1

2010 (E)
7.4

[sixpintsid] 18/7/2008 08:43

So in other words the company is now valued on a prospective bidders credit rating. Excellent

[jeff h] 18/7/2008 08:13

I agree with the analyst and added at 31p yesterday - Tangent's 50p offer was viewed as derisory so the opinion of the MM's offering to sell you stock at 31p
should be similar.

Some info from today's Times:-

The world of debt is a significantly different place now to what it was a few months ago, if the fate of TMN Group, the online marketing agency, is anything to judge by.

The company's board began talks with chief executive Mark Smith and finance director Craig Dixon two months ago regarding a buyout at 70p a share, backed by August Equity, the private equity fund. The group was on a high, having just knocked back a £40 million approach from rival Tangent Communications, rumours of interest from 3i and Trinity Mirror, and with Datamonitor founder Mike Danson building a 24 per cent stake.

However, TMN was forced to end talks yesterday after August failed to secure sufficient debt to finance an acceptable offer. It is understood the potential buyer met 16 banks but most, despite being keen on TNM, were unable to lend enough cash, so the offer price would have fallen closer to an unacceptable 55p. Assurances that trading was in line with expectations could not save the group's shares, down 7p to 30½p.

[stemis] 17/7/2008 17:38

Contact name: M Danson

Telephone number: 07793 296 330

[davidosh] 17/7/2008 17:33

I suggest a meeting with management in the same way we had one a year ago with IBG.....too long to wait for the AGM in three months. We need to have proof they are committed and to see how good the non execs are too. They do not to give us any figures just explain themselves and why it took four months to go nowhere. What happened to the other bids ?

Does anyone have contact details for Danson ?

[coffeelito] 17/7/2008 16:30

What a car crash