The Sage Share Discussion Threads

[hatfullofsky] 13/4/2018 23:54

There is an absolute bargain here, not for the faint hearted but the growth in cloud and core stickiness is a major draw. I opened a spread at 550 this morning, at that time a 20% decline in the share price was an over reaction to the 1% revenue growth decline we'd already been made aware of in Jan. Will start to build a investment position here.

[mozy123] 13/4/2018 07:46

Intuit quick books probabaly.

Added a few more this morning

[rock star] 13/4/2018 06:19

Xero taking market share?

[maddox] 09/2/2018 15:01

Just having a look at the technical position underlying the fall in Sage's share price - considering the recent RNS' and the declared short positions. There are no declared short positions greater than 0.5% - so the hedge funds are not (to any notifiable extent) selling Sage short. Aviva have declared that they have lent 0.12% of stock - presumably to Evil Knieval to short. Other institutions are holding their stock.

So the sell-side looks pretty weak and very vulnerable - should buyers look to take advantage of the price on offer. Also, any seller short of shares will at some point need to buy back in.

I'm taking the opportunity to get on the other side of Evil's position before he un-winds. in a tight market for Sage stock (which is the norm) the share price can only go one way.

Regards Maddox

[maddox] 08/2/2018 16:17

Nice of Mr Evil Knievil to generate some liquidity in Sage. It's a damn difficult share to jump onto, particularly if you're a value investor, as it always looks so expensive. This is due to its 'economic moat' - its strong position in the market - reflected in the 16% Return on Capital, 27% Operating Profit Margin. At the current 690p share price you get a nice 2.2% yield (based on historic paid dividends).

Hilarious Evils' mention of Microsoft as a competitor - Microsoft Money was no longer sold or supported as an accounting package back in 2009 - see

Microsoft is a strategic partner of Sage and they have a global technology agreement involving Azure and Office 365 cloud platform integration.

I don't think Mr Evil has done his homework on this one.

Regards Maddox

[jkc147] 30/1/2018 20:58

On the long side, Fundsmith have built up a +5% stake. Terry Smith and his sidekick Julian are men who know what they are doing.

[mozy123] 30/1/2018 12:42

Not only that but an awsome tech company with 90+% recurring revenue. Sticky!

[andyj] 30/1/2018 12:29

Let him, anyone stupid enough to short a share in a well defined uptrend deserves what they get!

[pineapple1] 29/1/2018 12:11

Looks like Evil has shorted SGE

[bountyhunter] 25/1/2018 13:53

quite right, and looking back at the 2 yr chart dips like this have always been reversed pretty quickly, so joined in @763 :)

[mellorscarthwaite] 24/1/2018 15:48

Solid first 1/4 share price reaction the same as previous years

[mellorscarthwaite] 24/1/2018 15:48

Solid first 1/4 share price reaction the same as previous years

[maddox] 24/1/2018 10:05

Sage fell out of bed today down c.50p >6% on their Q1 Trading Update. The explanation is that re-training of their sales team has caused a blip in sales momentum. Unfortunately, as they have been setting expectations towards 'accelerated growth' - this was not what Mr Market was looking for and has reacted accordingly.

This was clearly not part of the plan - and is on the eve of a Sage Capital Markets Day in London. This I expect to be an up-beat presentation of Sages' plans for world domination of the 'business (accounting) solutions' sector. We'll see whether they can restore confidence in these plans and a quick recovery in the share price after tomorrow.

This is not the first time that Sage have caught us out with a weak first quarter - only to then as promised again today - recover the lost ground by the full-year end.

Regards, Maddox

[contrarian joe] 27/11/2017 22:02

Sold out of these today,on the grounds their rating is up with events,hard to turn down a 40% return (including divis),it's a quality outfit which have served me well.Good luck to all holders on here.

[maddox] 16/8/2017 13:37

Sage up 22p 3.22% to 705p as I post.

Strangely, this appears to be due to a change of heart by UBS analyst Michael Briest that has moved his recommendation to Neutral from Sell, although the price has already shot past his share price target of 680p!

Of course, its worth pointing out that anyone following Michael Briest's previous recommendations would have missed out on a 90% share price gain and 103% total return including dividends in under 3 years. And he's still only moved to 'neutral'?

Regards Maddox

[maddox] 29/7/2017 11:51

The Trading Update has some very positive aspects IMHO.

Firstly, on the trading update Sage have reconfirmed their guidance for FY 2017 of at least 6% growth and 27% margin. Ok, no change so what?

Well what is interesting is that the full year targets are not changing even though they are spending $850m on a fast growing but loss making US Cloud Financial Systems business ‘Intacct’;. One might have expected that this together with the funding costs and other two recent acquisitions might dent the results a tad – but no. Also, the US payments business now being disposed of has provided a further drag on growth. The implications of all this are that growth is accelerating but is being masked by the investments Sage are making.

Similarly, whilst not significantly impacting the top-line numbers the new Cloud products are gaining customers and the move to SAAS pricing and service transformation are all proceeding well.

This situation is not likely to continue indefinitely at some point quite soon the revenue growth and margin improvements are likely to become clearly visible. When it does the current pause in the share price appreciation will end and a further re-rating is likely.

Regards Maddox

[dogwalker] 05/6/2017 08:44

A number of 'broker recs.' out today, with the usual wide spread of forecasts. I like GS's, suggesting 860p....

[contrarian joe] 02/6/2017 15:56

SGE selling it's American business.

[dogwalker] 03/5/2017 17:06

There'll surely be pressure now to buy here, given the number of pundits, brokers etc.,who, up until today, had been forecasting share price under-performance.

[maddox] 03/5/2017 14:45

Hi Dogwalker,

Very much like these results - still a work-in-progress but the transformation strategy is clearly starting to deliver results. The core business and transition to SAAS pricing continuing at a pace but the focus on new customer acquisition is really very exciting. Very impressive.

[dogwalker] 03/5/2017 06:14

Today's results appear good enough to me, especially the bit about 'increasing momentum'. And the 9% dividend rise.

[dogwalker] 01/5/2017 13:07

Shame that the 'Telegraph's' so-called 'Questor' column can't draw a coherent line under its views re this company. In the S.Tel we're suddenly negative because of a forecast p/e of all of 18 ! A few month's ago - can't remember when - it was a buy at a higher price.

[contrarian joe] 13/4/2017 21:15

Broken out of it's six month downtrend convincingly,with the ftse100 struggling.