The Sage Share Discussion Threads

[maddox] 25/8/2015 14:05

Hi EssentialInvestor,

You should be careful what you wish for!!

Anyway, I've taken the opportunity to top-up at 495p,

Cheers Maddox

[maddox] 18/8/2015 22:42

With the shares now at 522p lets have another look at the Broker recs (courtesy of Digital Look:

Strong Buy - 2
Buy - 2
Neutral - 8
Sell - 2
Strong Sell - 6

So, very little movement on the last update - Strong Sell is down one with 20 opinions rather than 21, and 'reiteration' is what is stated when you look at the latest Broker updates. No change in sentiment evident here then!

Cheers Maddox

[essentialinvestor] 07/8/2015 10:05

Im hoping these will come back a bit, not a forecast btw.

[maddox] 22/7/2015 16:00

Q3 Trading Statement was positive today and Sage are on course to meet their year-end targets. We also got a bit more detail supporting the 6% organic growth targets - which some analysts see as being too conservative.

The explanation, if I've got it right, is that the move to subscription pricing effectively cannabalises annual billing - and thus reduces short-term revenue. However, the subscription model is far more beneficial in the medium/long term. Thus a more conservative target supports the strategy by taking away the pressure to meet short-term revenue targets which would require maintaining the annual billing.

Mr Market seemed to like the update as the shares closed 5.5p up at 541p.

Regards, Maddox

[maddox] 25/6/2015 10:58

Hi miti,

Hmmm, OK yes, they have not revised their market guidance today.

On the other hand, the narrative is far more ambitious. The newly stated goal to be the global number one, re-focus on the customer and revenue growth is all very fresh. I don't think those ambitions are compatible with the current growth projections. So, great ambition, big question is can they deliver on this strategic intent?

I like the new CEO Stephan Kelly's analysis of the issues and challenges they face and what they are going to do to address them. If he get's it right then those current growth targets will be well beaten.

Regards, Maddox

[miti 1000] 24/6/2015 14:01

Try no growth for next 2 years beyond what was expected

[maddox] 24/6/2015 11:17

Well here we are, today is Sage's 2015 Capital Markets Day. It will be interesting to see whether Sage's management team are able to persuade the analysts to revise their (overwhelmingly) negative opinions on Sage's prospects:

Strong Buy - 1
Buy - 1
Neutral - 7
Sell - 1
Strong Sell - 8

Must say the opening share price movement doesn't bode well, down 11p (2%) at 538p as I post. Well FWIW my view is positive:



What am I missing?

Regards, Maddox

[corlis] 19/5/2015 15:52

Now 570
Now sure can this keep on rising so may have to take my money & run before weekend....only very limited rising left!

[maddox] 09/5/2015 11:51

The current broker views are still reflecting scepticism about Sage:

Strong Buy - 1
Buy - 1
Neutral - 6
Sell - 1
Strong Sell - 8

and their price targets are all well below the current share price.

Its going to be interesting to see whether Stephan Kelly can change their perceptions. He will be laying out his strategy and ambitions for the business next month, Sage Capital Markets Day 24 June 2015.

Regards Maddox

[maddox] 09/5/2015 11:12

Sage's return to growth is confirmed in these excellent set of results.

“Better than expected interim results meant Sage led the risers, up 8 per cent to a 15-year high of 536p.” Bryce Elder FT 6 May 15

The Highlights from the results make very good reading:


'>> Organic recurring revenue growth of 8% in-line with management expectations, with 29% software subscription revenue growth the primary driver. Recurring revenue now accounts for 73% of Group organic revenue (H1 2014: 72%);
>> Organic SSRS revenue growth of 2% was stronger than expected, due to certain one-offs, including a regulatory change in Malaysia, which contributed approximately 50 basis points to Group organic revenue growth;
>> Increased organic operating margin reflects improved operating leverage from organic growth and disciplined cost management and supports the 28% operating profit margin target for the year;
>> Weaker performance in parts of the business, particularly Enterprise Europe and payments and the Small and medium sized business ("SMB") segment in North America, leads to a cautious outlook for these areas;
>> Sage ERP X3, our global solution for enterprise businesses, grew organic revenue by 10% (H1 2014: 7%);
>> The number of paying subscriptions for Sage One, our global cloud solution for smaller businesses, increased to 115,000* (FY 2014: 86,000; H1 2014: 59,000); and
>> The move to a subscription model continues with over 550,000 software subscription contracts and an annualised subscription value of £260m (FY 2014: £224m).'

Regards, Maddox

[corlis] 06/5/2015 15:26

Now 539 which is up 8.5% today.

[corlis] 05/5/2015 08:33

Off to a nice start, now 500.00

[corlis] 02/5/2015 16:06

I mentioned a few weeks ago this was a buy around the 475
Anyway this is announcing early part of next week & looks good.
now 487

[corlis] 12/4/2015 17:27

Even at this current price im happy to buy in tomorrow.

[skinwalker] 19/3/2015 09:01

seems to have hit the buffers at 480.
Fully valued now?

[maddox] 04/2/2015 12:42

Hi EI,

Predicting share price direction is difficult enough - if I could quantify the scale - I'd be a lot more wealthy than I am! lol!

Yes, we've had a good run and looking at the Broker recs

Strong Buy - 2
Buy - 2
Neutral - 8
Sell - 2
Strong Sell - 7

So, they appear to be suggesting that we're fully valued on balance. Nevetheless, the yield at 2.2% and likely to grow, together with the buy-backs, will provide continued support. So a solid Hold for me.

Cheers Maddox

[essentialinvestor] 03/2/2015 11:16

Maddox, how much does the rapid re-rating already allow for?.

The growth prospects have changed little, it's the perception that has changed
which has lead to the rapid share price run up.

[maddox] 03/2/2015 09:52

Hi EI,

Qtrly results show SGE is on track and following its newly rediscovered growth trajectory. This has been evident for some time, as I mentioned in my post 3328, so IMHO this is the market waking up to the facts.

Regards, Maddox

[skinwalker] 01/2/2015 20:41

Essential....
fwiw, i'm cautiously optimistic. I've been in this one for as long as I can remember. Only recently moved into profit.
Strong customer base...
I'm going to hang on in in the short term

[mellorscarthwaite] 31/1/2015 22:09

Loads of customers to convert to cloud (one massive upgrade)

[essentialinvestor] 28/1/2015 13:29

Any updated views on SGE?, it's had an incredible run since October.

[dimotane] 22/1/2015 08:56

Looking good here this morning.Nice run up since November.

[maddox] 25/12/2014 03:27

Hi Eastbourne1982,

Thanks for your thoughts, is that the depth of your analysis?

I've been led to believe that shorters have to do much greater research and analysis than bulls due to the higher risk they take. Is this true or are you just taking a punt?

Regards Maddox

[eastbourne1982] 24/12/2014 23:19

Stuck this one on my short radar, nothing wrong with the company and the recent news has obviously been good however it has pretty much rocketed from £3.50ish to around £4.64 today, seems overblown to me.

FAO bigdazzler - Are you looking to go short again ?

[essentialinvestor] 19/12/2014 10:43

Have high expectations for SGE in 2015.