The Mission Share Discussion Threads

[bbbb] 25/10/2007 11:18

'the emphasis on 'compounded interest' is a blinder, little impact on calcs !

as the sum due to mc/c is $1.4m principal outstanding and $19.4m INTEREST,
(that's compounded interest by the way) if that ratio of interest to debt has 'little impact,' I wonder what a
BIG IMPACT would be?

[giant steps] 25/10/2007 11:10

pluses and minuses will probably cancel one another out, it seems pointless
trying to adjust the odd million up or down , hence i had resisted to say
100m zar is closer to $15m

the emphasis on 'compounded interest' is a blinder, little impact on calcs !

[bbbb] 25/10/2007 10:58

selectively quoting a part of an earlier announcement WITHOUT MENTIONING the
later reference to 'adjustments to the ZAR 100m in respect of PSGM WORKIBG CAPITAL' is about as
misleading as one can get.

Why not try and get a spread bet quote for your 'estimate' of US$ 14m being
100% accurate?

if you think 'working capital' is of no consequence, what do you think the
dribble of further borrowing and credit lines in respect of it from mn/c
was all about? peanut-money or what?

[giant steps] 25/10/2007 10:50

very tiresome and misleading approach by bbbb

it will seem obvious to most that a cash reduction of approx $14m
will be applied to $21m debt, giving an INDICATIVE figure of $7m

many unknowns give rise to incalculables that in turn may be positive
or negative, this in turn may be share price enhancing or detrimental


Reminder to readers :

"
The Purchase Consideration is to be satisfied through the payment on completion
of ZAR 100 million (One Hundred Million South African Rands) in cash
(conditional on a placement of shares of Pamodzi) and ZAR 150 million (One
Hundred and Fifty Million South African Rands) to be paid in convertible
interest bearing debt securities (the 'Pamodzi SPV Securities') issued by a
special purpose vehicle wholly owned by Pamodzi Resources Limited (the 'SPV')
which will acquire a specified number of ordinary shares in Pamodzi (the '
Pamodzi Gold Shares') for an amount of ZAR 150 million (One Hundred and Fifty
Million South African Rands).
"

[bbbb] 25/10/2007 10:32

we need to distinguish between maths and the figure (since edited)
to which maths applies. there is a difference.

the US$ 21m was the figure on 1 OCTOBER by 30 NOVEMBER IF CASH
is received on that date a further two months interest at 12% p.a. will have ticked up.

That will increase the $21m by $420,000 by then....

the pamodzi cash will be at the ZAR US$ rate on 30 November on ZAR100m
adjusted by psgm working capital ..........as determined........,

so it might be more or less than ZAR 100m

so chicken counting of USD$14m is at best a wild guess...

[giant steps] 25/10/2007 10:23

"tmg will be paying 12% p.a. compounded every three months on US$ 21m"



the bbbb maths is a very weak aspect,

40% of pamodzi deal is cash , equivalent to $14m,

$21m less $14m gives outstanding debt $7m

[giant steps] 25/10/2007 09:27

Katsy, tmg will have income charges on $21m, so unless MC/Casten are charging
3 times the amount, debt will be maintained and continually reduced.

To put thistle on an even better keel requires a debt free balance sheet,
restructure now to restore confidence in the market.

[katsy] 25/10/2007 09:16

bbbb I just wish hey would finally nail the debt on the head. At load shark interest rates even a relatively small debt can spiral out of control. MC/C are laughting all the way to the bank.

[bbbb] 25/10/2007 08:58

katsy: but ZAR 150m of that is to be converted into pamodzi shares (at a price not disclosed) in one years time.

ZAR 150m of pamodzi shares in one year may, or may not be saleable at a price
unknown and dollar equivalent unknown.

[katsy] 25/10/2007 08:41

250M zar is about $38m at todays exchange rates.

[giant steps] 25/10/2007 08:32

tim -> Yes it's a shame that we did not realise more from CGA sale, however
single digit debt and income more than sufficient to cover charges gives tmg
a sporting chance.

[tim00] 25/10/2007 06:47

GS, I think the shares will resume trading when the PSGM transaction is completed, probably in December. The downside risks will obviously have been much reduced, giving TMG much greater stability going forward. But equally it's a shame the CGA shares had to be sold prior to their true worth being realised. Your numbers look OK, which should result in the share price recovering. However, as dog says, this is still a long term bet on the pog/Pamodzi, and the 'long term' has not got any nearer over the past two years!

[giant steps] 24/10/2007 21:31

Reminder re sale of PSGM (assuming CGA transfer has completed)

Debt will be further reduced from $20.8m by $14m (40%) to $6.8m,
and thistle will COLLECT interest from Pamodzi on $21m. Thistle
then have the potential upside from convertible option.


"
The Purchase Consideration is to be satisfied through the payment on completion
of ZAR 100 million (One Hundred Million South African Rands) in cash
(conditional on a placement of shares of Pamodzi) and ZAR 150 million (One
Hundred and Fifty Million South African Rands) to be paid in convertible
interest bearing debt securities (the 'Pamodzi SPV Securities') issued by a
special purpose vehicle wholly owned by Pamodzi Resources Limited (the 'SPV')
which will acquire a specified number of ordinary shares in Pamodzi (the '
Pamodzi Gold Shares') for an amount of ZAR 150 million (One Hundred and Fifty
Million South African Rands).

[giant steps] 24/10/2007 21:08

tim -> what are your thoughts ?

[giant steps] 24/10/2007 19:19

we have the announcement, and bbbb will want to work the sum of the parts !

let me try and assist.

if the cga transfer completes ($37.8m + $4.5m = $42.3m) then
outstanding debt based at 1st October 2007 will be $20.8m

the transfer is expected to be completed by October 30, 2007

our remaining asset is PSGM and this is for sale, non binding agreement $35.7m

on balance this would give $14.9m, plus $2m PSGM rehab fund

s/p should relist with a healthy uplift imo.

( restoration of trading subject to conclusion of legally binding agreement )

[bbbb] 24/10/2007 15:35

are we entitled to news anyway without a quote?

looks like we can safely assume here that control means
stuff minorities.

[katsy] 24/10/2007 15:29

If TMG have given are only worth while asset to MC/C then surely they should tell us? I see no news at 3pm.

[bbbb] 24/10/2007 11:50

'The SAs have not shined in the bull market in gold since 2002-3. These shares have been in a bear market since that time. I'd say things will change in favour of SAs over the next 6 to 18 months.'

There have been changes in employment law, mining law, environmental costs and compulsory bee involvement in addition to more simplistic rising costs in rsa
compared with other gold boom times.

none of those changes adds to the bullish case.

else why did large mining groups divest some mines and reorganise their holdings?

[dogberry202000] 24/10/2007 11:41

I think that TMG will not be in a position to release news until the sale of PGM has gone through in November. We'll then see what TMG is worth.

CGA doubling has not done TMG any harm and the undercapitalised PGM is being sold for cash and shares in Pamodzi. The share price of the latter is on the ground, at present, so as GS says, that's where the gearing is.

We may yet have real value here. Yes, the debt needs to be settled and the interest was high. Yet it seems value has been released and the debt monetised.
The higher gold price will also be a factor. The SAs have not shined in the bull market in gold since 2002-3. These shares have been in a bear market since that time. I'd say things will change in favour of SAs over the next 6 to 18 months.

[giant steps] 24/10/2007 11:39

st - i note "You are left with the booby prize, if any! "

Are you no longer a shareholder ?

[giant steps] 24/10/2007 11:26

st - we need to see the numbers as you well know, 100% gain in CGA investment
cannot be ignored and MC/casten subscribing for more shares at this level
indicates a fair price for transfer. Pamodzi shares will be our gearing factor.

again, some on here have deluded themselves into thinking Japanese
like financing should have been offered from MC/Casten, LOL !