The Local Shopping Reit Share Discussion Threads

[frazboy] 16/1/2018 16:10

Thanks Strath, I only get 136 oustanding properties (+6 part satisfied), 5@ LSR, 90 @ Nos 4, 40 @ Nos 5, 1 @ Nos 7. Am I missing something? Or has this been updated since you looked yesterday?

Could HSBC simply have released some from the loan pool at the company's request, given the relative low overall debt levels?

[strathroyal] 16/1/2018 14:27

frazboy - Companies House register is freely available to view.

The path is Companies House>Get information about a company>type in NOS 4 (LSR trading subsidiary)>Filing History. For a summary of the charges outstanding, change Filing History to Charges.

LSR's other subsidiaries are Nos 5, 6, 7 and Gilfin Property.

[frazboy] 16/1/2018 13:47

Strathroyal,Out of curiosity, could you please tell me where are you getting that information from? Much obliged!

[strathroyal] 16/1/2018 13:25

HoW - Well something appears to be afoot but I can't work out what exactly.

Followings a further avalanche of Satisfactions yesterday, LSR and its 5 subsidiaries have 141 charges outstanding. As some of these are assignments of rent, they appear to cover less than that many properties whereas LSR still had 167 properties in the Annual Report.

The latest Satisfactions are spread over several of the regions but my rough calculations show that less than 20 Scottish properties still have a Charge registered and Edinburgh (re tilton's previous comment) only 1.

Two thoughts come to mind. Firstly as you say a partial sale maybe in the offing. Secondly, referring back to the Annual Report, a number of properties were taken out of the HSBC loan security pool after payment of £6.1M (see last para of the Financing section of the report) and these satisfactions could involve said properties. As you know I'm looking for the sale of these to fund a partial redemption of the share capital!!

[hillofwad] 16/1/2018 09:32

Strath

Could be good news .Maybe they are holding back because they are in discussions to sell a fat portfolio privately?.

[skyship] 15/1/2018 08:27

Likewise - thnx Strath...

[kooba] 15/1/2018 07:46

Strathroyal thanks for very useful info.

[strathroyal] 13/1/2018 17:49

Details of the properties for sale in Allsop's first auction of the year published today. Lots 54/61/63/113/120 & 121 appear to be LSR properties and have a combined reserve of £670-£765k with the biggest lot £220-230k.

So that suggests that Internos are still looking to sell the bigger properties via a trade sale despite the comments in the Annual Report.

[tiltonboy] 12/1/2018 18:57

Many thanks.

[strathroyal] 12/1/2018 17:08

kooba - Companies House >Get information about a Company>Nos 4 (an LSR trading subsidiary)>Filing History. That will give you details o the properties concerned.

tiltonboy - they have registered Satisfactions of Charges on 19 of the Scottish portfolio, 7 of which are Edinburgh. Can't be totally accurate but I make it that there are now less than 30 Scottish properties in the portfolio.

[tiltonboy] 12/1/2018 15:28

strath, any signs of the Edinburgh properties moving. I hoped they may get packaged up and sold as one.

[kooba] 12/1/2018 14:40

How does one see that Info ...not familiar with CH.

[strathroyal] 12/1/2018 12:11

I see that LSR have updated Companies House on a number of the sales that have taken place in the latter half of 2017. Obviously those of us following the auctions were aware of the properties sold via that process but these filings do appear to provide the address information on the properties which have been sold by private treaty.

A good number of the private treaty sales appear to be in Scotland which is pleasing as I assumed this part of the portfolio may prove difficult to shift due to their location.

[hillofwad] 15/12/2017 10:03

Those that think 39p is on the cards should be mindful that selling costs are about 4.7% This is of course levied on the gross selling price so lets assume that £55m is achieved ie valuation there is £2.5m going out the door there

No doubt there will be some golden goodbyes for directors too Difficult to gauge at what point the number of properties remain after death by a thousand cuts to see the whole show stay open before they parcel a portfolio up Maybe £25m ??? and very likely that a discount of 15% plus will be required there to shift as evidenced by the poor repsonse to 70% of the portfolio hawked around the market


Certainly investors would have now had ample opportunity to eye up the individual properties and maybe step up on ones they fancy which should pick off a
few

Individual ones have being offered around recently by investors looking to buy portfolio on and sub-sell a batch to reduce exposure It didn't happen which unfortunately speaks volumes

Danger of fatigue seeping in as investors see the old chestnuts reappearing


I think the best chance of achieving a small profit on today's valuation is Thalsassa moving in for the kill They need to do that sooner rather than later

[gfrae] 15/12/2017 09:49

Yes,even an almost perfect market it is difficult to sell cheap. Imagine if
A. We didn't have mass immigration of low paid workers,who provide punters for local shops,and tenants and purchasers for the flats upstairs.
B. No QE
C. Higher interest rates.
D. No stamp Duty changes which make the purchase of commercial property much more attractive.
E. Directors had not skillfully off loaded one portfolio at a small discount to NAV.
F. Interest rate swaps had not expired.
G. Directors had not negotiated low interest and flexible debt.
!

[topvest] 14/12/2017 21:09

Well I don't think anyone has done very well here. It's been a massive value trap. You have to question whether it wouldn't be better to hold the portfolio for income and pay a dividend than this relentless selling of the portfolio at a discount. Costs are still way too high. Portfolio highly illiquid with no buyers. What a nightmare. Think its taken us all by surprise just how bad it could be, particularly in a supposedly buoyant commercial property market.

[tiltonboy] 14/12/2017 11:25

strath,

I would be very surprised if that were to happen.

[strathroyal] 14/12/2017 09:58

I note that everyone commenting on the end NAV assumes that shareholders will get repaid at the end of the sales process but isn't their a likelihood that there will be a share buyback early in 2018?

At least that's my reading of the decision to free £6.1M of property from the HSBC loan security pool. The annual report states that this is not required for working capital and HSBC have no claims on it so, when the properties are sold, the cash could fund a buyback of 15%-20% at presumably NAV less (say)5% for expenses. That's 39-40pps and follows the process adopted by DIL2 amongst others.

Ever the optimist!

[gfrae] 14/12/2017 09:13

I agree with TV....it woofs. Even if you bought it cheap. It has required an enormous amount of luck and skill to make a modest profit.
EG.,....getting the first portfolio away, very low interest rates, "Quantitative Easing",taxation changes,expiring interest rate swaps, high immigration of low skilled workers,record levels of employment.
The initial premise of the business was flawed. I would be interested to know how such a rubbish portfolio was assembled eg was it some vehicle into which various property speculators poured their drossy portfolios at inflated prices,perhaps in exchange for shares that they thought they would later be able to dump ?

[skyship] 14/12/2017 07:49

Quite right - timing is everything.

TV - actually has been quite a good play; and from here through 2018 should continue to be so!

[tiltonboy] 13/12/2017 21:06

Depends when you bought!

[topvest] 13/12/2017 20:07

Gosh what a disaster this company has been. A real dog.

[hillofwad] 13/12/2017 20:04

I am not being pessimistic just realistic nothing to do with arrogance What's negative about 35p !!! Agree with Frazboy except at the death in order to wrap the whole affair up more than likely a bigger discount will be required -it stands to reason

On the upside maybe Thalasaa might make a swoop otherwise their investment is going to look very pedestrian.

Just think Skyship is running away with a single recent sale at a premium on a secondary shop in Rowley Regis .Also assuming just because the remaining properties are maybe better quality than those that have appeared at recent auctions somehow excludes them from the possibility of being discounted

[hindsight] 13/12/2017 19:56

Think they should forget selling the properties and issue a crypto coin for our shares. As it would be the only one trading at a discount rather than a few 1000% premium, dont think we be debating 35p to 39p.
Back to the real world, happy to hold and see how sales pan out. One comment I do have is the 43p NAV back in time, put out by the company, has rather been saved by a strong property market

[frazboy] 13/12/2017 18:58

SKYSHIP - yep, they're a buy on the basis that 31p gives a CAGR of over 10%, for the mid case proposed. The numbers are rudimentary but I see no reason to believe that what is about to be sold will sell (including costs etc) at more of a discount than those properties which have been sold in the last year. And, besides, as gfrae points out, wrap up costs probably aren't going to be that large, but this gives some wiggle room should they have to sell the remaining properties at the 20% discount that HoW has previously intimated.