The Gym Share Discussion Threads

[shauney2] 03/2/2020 13:10

pstick,is that not a good sign.They have retained more average members to longer term contracts?

from the Jan 2019 trading update,

Total year-end membership numbers 724,000 Average Members of 693,000

[davr0s] 31/1/2020 21:50

Nope - I'm just a trend trader as that tells me everything I need to know

[pstick] 31/1/2020 17:09

Do you guys have any thoughts on the year end membership of 794,000 (December 2019) being lower than the average members during the year of 796,000?

This seems worrying to me, in particular after opening 20 new gyms during 2019.

This was certainly not the trend in previous years...

[davr0s] 23/1/2020 22:01

Hardly moved - bull flag. Just leaving it to do it's thing but no idea where it will go

[thomshrike] 23/1/2020 10:56

I cannot access the full text of the article, but I would claim that anyone that values this stock solely on the basis of PE or dividend yield (ie without making the necessary adjustments for: maturing of immature gyms, depreciation schedule, growth capex, etc) does not get it.

[smnicolson] 23/1/2020 10:03

Not exactly getting better 6 days later!

[masurenguy] 23/1/2020 00:43

Rated a Hold by Tempus in The Times today !

"The Gym Group is well placed to capitalise on consumers’ growing enthusiasm for low-cost facilities and the long-term increase in the desire to be healthier and fitter. The shares have risen by just under 50% in the past year and, with a dividend yield of just under 1%, are for the growth investor. Trading at 20 times Liberum’s forecast earnings, they are one to tuck away.
ADVICE Hold: WHY - Low-cost operator taking advantage of growth of budget fitness"

Complete article here:

[quepassa] 22/1/2020 08:55

For the record, some great broker PRICE UPGRADES since those excellent results came out last week.

Barclays UPPED their TARGET PRICE from 300p to 350p.
And Peel Hunt UPPED their TARGET PRICE from 350p to 375p.



This is the list of latest broker recommendations all since 17th Jan:


Barclays REITERATE OVERWEIGHT @ TP 350p
Liberum REITERATE BUY @ TP 330p
Peel Hunt REITERATE BUY @ TP 375p
Berenberg REITERATE BUY @ TP 330p

and from 10/12/19

RBC Capital Markets REITERATE OUTPERFORM @ TP 340p


A very strong and convincing alignment of broker forecasts.

ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[davr0s] 17/1/2020 19:34

Never pay too much attention to price action on the day

[smnicolson] 17/1/2020 17:00

Subdued response to the update really

[thomshrike] 17/1/2020 08:36

On the conference call, additionally I would highlight the comment that LiveIt penetration should continue to rise, albeit at a slower pace. That is on the back of the business's natural churn and the fact that the percentage of new members that take up LiveIt continues to be higher that the current penetration.

[quepassa] 17/1/2020 08:28

Very UPBEAT dial-in conference call just ended concerning today's Trading Update.

Emphasized the significant growth they had achieved, success of Personal Trainer model , increase in yield per member. Success of small-box format.

In terms of competitive environment, only see PureGym and JD Gyms as competitors trying to expand market share.

They stated that the sector Market Opportunity can still double in size.


Closing remarks:-

-Good year for business

-Strong growth

-Encouraging start to 2020.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[mount teide] 17/1/2020 08:16

Good results.

Today there are circa 3,000 private gyms in the UK with an average monthly fee of £50, circa 2,700 public gym facilities with an average monthly fee of £30, and circa 650 low cost gyms with an average monthly fee of £18.

Clients of Public sector gyms are the principal target of the low cost gyms, particularly since funding has been sharply cut for public sector sports facilities over the last decade, resulting in many having a limited range of ageing, tired looking equipment compared to the new low cost gym sector.

Low cost gym membership has grown over the last 5 years at an average CAGR of 36%, while traditional high cost private and public sector gyms has seen no growth.

Latest Industry forecasts have the number of low cost gyms doubling to circa 1,300 by 2025, while public gyms and private health club gyms are expected to continue experiencing no growth and membership declines.

Let the trend be your friend.

[thomshrike] 17/1/2020 08:08

Looks very solid, broadly in-line with consensus estimates. ARPMM growth (+5.2% adjusted for PT) continues to be very positive, on the back of initiatives such as LiveIt. 2020 outlook also in-line. Encouraging January, which is always good because it is one of the most important months of the year. Positive tone overall.

Importantly, this is the anniversary of a January 2019 trading update that led to such a big drawdown on the share price then. Good to see more stability here.

Overall, I would expect the stock to continue to re-rate in coming months.

[shauney2] 17/1/2020 08:02

Peel Hunt raise their target to 375 (350p)

[masurenguy] 17/1/2020 07:56

Trading Update - Main Highlights

*Total year-end membership numbers ahead by 9.7% to 794,000 (Dec 2018: 724,000); Average Members during the year of 796,000 (Dec 2018: 693,000) up 14.9%. Total revenue growth of 23.6% up to £153.1m (Dec 2018 : £123.9m) for the year.

*Year-end Non-Property Net Debt of £47.4m (Dec 2018: £46.0m, Jun 2019: £47.2m) with growth of the estate being largely funded from operating cash flows.

*Site numbers increased to 175(1) (Dec 2018: 158) with 18 new standard site openings plus our first two small-box gyms in Newark and Beverley, maintaining TGG's estimated share(2) of the low-cost gym market at 24% (Dec 2018: 24%). The new site pipeline for 2020 is on track to open 15-20 standard gyms and 5-8 small box sites during the year.

*LIVE IT - our premium pricing product - continues to make good progress with 150,000 members, 18.9% of the total membership, subscribing to LIVE IT by the end of December 2019, compared to 11.7% in December 2018.

*Growth in average revenue per member per month (ARPMM) of 7.6% to £16.02 (Dec 2018: £14.89) on the back of the increased LIVE IT penetration and an increase in average headline price. Excluding the incremental rental revenue from New Gym Team ARPMM increased by 5.2%.

*The nationwide roll out of our new personal trainer model - New Gym Team - commenced in March and was completed as planned in September. As of 31 December, we have c.1,500 Fitness Trainers working in our business on a part-time employed basis. We are now focused on maximising the opportunity to enhance member service with this market-leading model.

[smnicolson] 17/1/2020 07:44

Disagree, all around my area more and more low cost gyms keep opening. Cheap fees and 24 hours opening, it's picking up

[davr0s] 17/1/2020 07:28

I'm happy - share at 52w high. That's all that matters to me

[rock star] 17/1/2020 07:19

I confess I am cynical of this company. It tries to “jazz up” a business model that has been around since the early 90’s with Fitness First.

Quick buck merchants in my opinion.

[davr0s] 15/1/2020 18:02

Lol - I'm in as a "going up" play

[masurenguy] 15/1/2020 17:49

Well any trendy categorisation that puts a positive spin on the company in order to bring investors on board is always welcome. I tend to adopt a more pragmatic view that they have the right business model to exploit the growing H & F market, particularly in smaller and secondary locations, and which also insulates them to a significant degree against any subsequent downturns that constitute a greater risk to the higher priced David Lloyd, LA Fitness and Virgin Active chains.

[thomshrike] 15/1/2020 16:55

Stock increasingly being marketed by brokers as an ESG play. Interesting.

[k65] 15/1/2020 15:27

Is that two massive near £500k buys today? Can someone clarify?

[mount teide] 14/1/2020 14:10

Transaction action suggests some may have got a peek preview!

[masurenguy] 14/1/2020 08:24

Trading update due on Friday.