The Gym Share Discussion Threads

[simba_] 05/3/2020 18:17

Do any of you here go to a gym regularly?. I do. I'm not seeing any difference. Nor will I stop going because of this.... at least not yet anyway..I sold out here a few months back and have been watching in the hope of getting back in. I will soon view this as an opportunity.

[davr0s] 05/3/2020 18:10

I exited last week as broke trend for me - not interested reentering atm as taken consolidation out. Can fall a lot further in the coming weeks if the virus takes hold

[masurenguy] 05/3/2020 18:05

GYM's fundamental marketing advantage - no long term membership contract lock-in - could be a disadvantage in the short term until the CV epidemic is finally over.

[earwacks] 05/3/2020 18:02

looking to buy back here. Obviously certain businesses are particularly vulnerable to Coronavirus. It will inevitably impact to some degree on GYM. Unfortunately the risk is not yet quantifiable. Not sure Barclays can do the math which probably explains their share price or is that to do with the not guilty verdict?

[quepassa] 21/2/2020 09:31

Today.

Barclays REITERTATE their OVERWEIGHT RECOMMENDATION with unchanged TARGET PRICE of 350p

Barclays see c 17% UPSIDE to current share price

[thomshrike] 21/2/2020 09:23

A few points:
- HIIT is not only for hardcore training. e.g. on Youtube you can find routines ranging from beginner through intermediate onto advanced. e.g. check videos by Joe Wicks, one of the most popular ones.
- HIIT is just one variant of the kind of training you can do using these new platforms. You can do any sort of calisthenics, bodyweight routines, weights, yoga, running, etc.
- You can find many training routines targeted at men, but even more targeted at women. e.g. check Kayla Itsines.

Within the training world, there is no "one size fits all". As mentioned above, some people will always want to work out with a PT, others love the social aspect of a gym, others see a gym as an indispensable complement to other types of training, etc. Myself, I have been invested in GYM since the IPO, therefore I am believer in the story that low-cost gyms will continue to be increasingly relevant.

But in order to build a sound investment thesis one cannot be in denial with regard to potential threats to the business model and, in my humble opinion, in the long-run the substitution of working out at the gym for working out at home is the most relevant one.

[dplewis1] 21/2/2020 07:57

Report it - I have!

[masurenguy] 21/2/2020 07:54

Beware - the above link has been spammed across hundreds of ADVFN threads !

[mount teide] 21/2/2020 00:04

Even in high cost gyms like Virgin Fitness with minimum 12 month memberships, attendance during the Spring, summer and early Autumn is much higher than over the winter - only the die hard trainers work out all year round.

[scooper72] 20/2/2020 21:44

And the social side of going to gyms to work out and bench weights together is big amongst youth as an alternative to going to the pub. Basic culture change.

[rp] 20/2/2020 19:42

Exactly. I'm going to weekly NHS one hour cardiac rehab sessions after a heart attack. Every week the tutor stresses the importance of warm up/cool down and stretches.

[shauney2] 20/2/2020 15:20

"I cant see the attraction of a 10 minute high intensity workout"
My wifes words exactly;-)

[glenowen] 20/2/2020 14:48

I cant see the attraction of a 10 minute high intensity workout, even for those self-important people with such "busy lives" they cant afford an hour at the local gym. Even doing HIIT in your own home, you still have to change into your gear, exercise, change out, have a shower, get dressed. That would be at least 30 or 40 minutes in total, for 10 minutes exercise - hardly attractive.

And as anybody who exercises should know, a decent stretch/warm up is necessary before starting, or you are highly likely to pull a muscle or two.

I dont think this "10 minute" malarkey will ever catch on!

[rp] 20/2/2020 13:25

Interesting. I was wondering why someone might go to a gym for just 10 minutes when it might take them 15 minutes + each way to get there and back.

[thomshrike] 20/2/2020 10:11

rp, to your point:
I think the biggest LT threat to all gym operators is people doing their exercise routines at home or at the hotel room. This is now increasingly possible due to the emergence of a plethora of apps and youtube videos. Plenty of those focus on HIIT (high intensity interval training) and those exercise routines can be very short in time while also quite effective (I speak by personal experience too, eg in fact I did a 10 minute HIIT routine this morning myself that got me drained). Whilst good apps are usually paid, youtube videos are generally for free.

Being able to perform those routines at home or at the hotel room has an added convenience value that to me makes it less logical to do it at the gym.
On the other hand, I think this is again a bigger threat to higher priced gyms, because the things that you can do at low-cost gyms, especially involving weights, are a cheaper and effective complement to those routines that you can do at home.

[rp] 20/2/2020 09:37

Interesting article in The Times recently about gyms offering very short sessions e.g. 10 minutes for people whose lives are very busy. I wonder if GYM have explored this idea.

[quepassa] 20/2/2020 08:48

For the record.

Prelims to be announced on 19th. March

[manc10] 14/2/2020 21:33

Big step in #tradewar: #China and the #US officially cut #tariffs on each other’s goods on Fri for the first time in nearly two years vix 13

[thomshrike] 13/2/2020 17:19

Regarding the coronavirus: even if you assume a temporary impact in the UK, the impact on valuation is negligible.
Pernod Ricard today is the ultimate example of a company acknowledging the impact of the coronavirus - multiple times more relevant than for GYM - and rallying on the news.

[rathean] 13/2/2020 14:44

Just don't see it with Whu Flu due to impact the UK in the coming months. Potentially material decline in usage with some subs attrition. Could present another Profitable buy in opportunity if the V shaped recovery comes through imo dyor ofc.

[masurenguy] 13/2/2020 08:39

Peel Hunt have issued a new Buy recommendation today with a target price of 375p.

[thomshrike] 03/2/2020 21:49

This is an interesting point, but notice that also in 2018 the ending membership was nearly flat between June and December. Additionally in November 2018 GYM tweaked prices in several gyms downwards in order to increase utilization, which probably supported a slightly better membership performance between June and December on that year. The number of openings is usually higher in H2 but it is usually tilted towards the last weeks or months of the year, so that the increase in membership is better observed on the seasonally strong period of Jan-Fev.

[pstick] 03/2/2020 21:07

shauney2 - 693,000 is the average members between Jan-Dec 2018. They reported in the Jan 2019 trading update that the average members between Jan-Dec 2019 is 796,000. However, the 31 December 2019 members is lower at 794,000, which means that must be a decline towards the year end.

For reference, here are the members at each point in time (all pro forma for the easygym acquisition). Jun-18 720,000; Dec-18 724,000; Jun-19 796,000; Dec-19 794,000.

It seems very strange to me, as most of their new gym openings this year are weighted towards H2, that they haven't managed to grow any members between June and December but lost 2,000 members.

[masurenguy] 03/2/2020 13:24

One months figures mean very little - just a snapshot in time. Average membership is what really counts and that was up by 14.9% on the prior year and revenue was up 23.6%, based upon an increase in outlets of only 10.8%.