Tekmar Share Discussion Threads

[tanelorn] 18/12/2007 13:53

Good Afternoon.
Please can we change the subject away from fusebox as we don't want the anti fusebox brigade to come over here and trash this thread like they trashed ekt.
Fusebox is a canny investor but only has, i believe, a modest amount in this share.

On a positive note it's nice to see the tick-up, i'm almost in profit, just a tad more needed. Reckon 20p within two years?

Regards
Tan

[loverat] 18/12/2007 11:34

I understand Fusebox does hold this stock.

He is well known and respected in the city. His calls are second to none - except mine of course.

[rellestrohs] 18/12/2007 10:22

Thats interesting loverat.

[loverat] 18/12/2007 10:19

Not so sure its Fusebox, although I understand he does have a big wallet.

I think it is some loser who used to post as 'MrBa5hir'. Apparently he was a successful trader but got wiped out in oil stocks two years ago.

He lost it completely and he even faked his own death on ADVFN. A car accident - not as original or as adventerous as the Darwins I'm afraid. Apparently he is locked up in a mental institution with limited internet access.

[rellestrohs] 18/12/2007 10:09

Thats a thought. He is rumoured to be fusebox though with a big wallet. So its no bad thing if he holds here.

[rivaldo] 17/12/2007 15:22

Considering Ba5hir is posting on virtually every ADVFN stock nominating them as stocks to be shorted I'm not sure what to make of his being so positive on TGP :o))

Perhaps he's Gyllenhammeur in disguise.

[ba5hir is back] 17/12/2007 14:23

PG realises the tiny market is too cheap on prospects. The cctv side is a quenns award winner and got fantastic growth prospects.

[rivaldo] 17/12/2007 14:17

So per today's RNS Gyllenhammeur has bought almost another 1.1m shares and is up to 16.82%....he's obviously convinced!

Supreme mo, just read back on the thread - you'll see everyone thinks the disposal was excellent news in exiting unprofitable legacy businesses, reducing borrowings and increasing NAV again.

[ba5hir is back] 17/12/2007 14:17

The rise continues. As i said its recession proof and too cheap.

[ba5hir is back] 17/12/2007 10:09

Excelent news as you say the disposal wanst making money to get over £1 million was a crackinmg deal.

I suspect when they announce debt will have been paid down significantly.

[supreme mo] 16/12/2007 19:23

If the business (tg21 have sold) is not making any money, then getting over a mil for it sounds good to me... hopefully all the patience for 21st century will pay off.

Furthermore, I bet tgp have noticed their payments to the debt have gone up over the last year as interest rates have increased, so it makes sense to use the money to reduce net debt to save interest over the long term.

What does everyone else think of the disposal?

[bi1l] 15/12/2007 17:40

"long" and "wait" springs to my mind as well, Ba5hir !!

But all this may be a significant turning point for this co. and the market seemed OK with it all as well. I hold and hope and as others have pointed out there are now an ever increasing number of reasons to be quite optimistic.

[ba5hir is back] 15/12/2007 11:37

Debt been paid down nicely and PG continuing to increase their stake.

This stock is almost recession proof as crime increases more and more will want cctv.

In manchester lately taxi drivers were considering cctv after a number of incidents lately.

Despit the slight downgrade things could change very rapidly and the share price respond rapidly.

I am long and happy to wait.

[rivaldo] 15/12/2007 11:23

Good buying yesterday - perhaps another RNS coming from Gyllenhammeur increasing his stake?

Worth repeating - with a £4.4m m/cap, TGP now has around £5.6m of net tangible assets (i.e excluding goodwill and including a £0.9m gain net of costs/provisions on this week's transaction) - and it's also expected to make £0.8m PBT this year and £1m next year.

The substantial property is also possibly worth a deal more than its historic book value.

An interesting 21st Century CPS summary here - I didn't realise they were implementing CCTV systems at Heathrow? A bit of a coup I'd have thought:


Extract:
"As a result of our day to day involvement with the installation of CCTV on vehicles for Arriva, we also moved into Depot CCTV, as a natural progression, and over the past couple of years we have installed over 30 Bus Depots and we have recently installed a Major 64 Camera , 26 TB DVR system CCTV system for Heathrow Baggage Handling."

[gbh2] 14/12/2007 10:22

Another set of excuses for yet another year of failing to add to shareholder value - I await the hard copy results with interest to see if the directors have made any significant cutbacks in what they take from the company!

[rivaldo] 14/12/2007 09:50

TGP is looking more and more interesting. I expect Gyllenhammeur will continue to buy. I'm happy to hold.

With a £4.4m m/cap, TP now has around £5.6m of net tangible assets (i.e excluding goodwill and including a £0.9m gain net of costs/provisions on this transaction) - and it's also expected to make £0.8m PBT this year and £1m next year.

The substantial property is also probably worth more than its book value.

Here's what Daniel Stewart say today:

"TG21 - BUY Price: 5.88p Target price: 7p Code: TGP.L Analyst: Vadim Alexandre | 020 7776 6550

Further disposals in-line with group strategy
TG21, the vehicle installation service provider supplying public transport CCTV and other monitoring systems, today announced that it has disposed of its Sigma, Toad Security and Soundlinx businesses which distribute car alarms, immobilisers and in-vehicle interface leads respectively.
The Sigma, Toad Security and Soundlinx names and inventory are to be sold to Scorpion Electro Systems Limited, a private company based in Chorley, Lancashire.
Scorpion is to pay a total cash consideration of £1.67m for the businesses-the net cash proceeds of which will be applied to reduce TG21's net debt.
We believe the group has made good progress in shedding its legacy divisions. Together with the disposal of the group's in-car entertainment business earlier this year, these transactions allow TG21's management to focus on further developing the profitable vehicle installation and public transport businesses.
As a consequence of these disposals, as well as due to costs associated with the groups restructuring, our forecasts are now:
o Turnover: £25.8m in 07 and £15.2m in 08
o PBT (DSC): £0.8m in 07 and £1.0m in 08
o EPS (DSC): 0.5p in 07 and 0.6p in 08
Finally, because our 2008 EPS forecasts have been cut by 10%, we have also lowered our target price from 8p to 7p."

[woodie3] 14/12/2007 07:07

TG21 plc ('TG21' or 'the Group')


TG21 ANNOUNCES FURTHER DISPOSALS IN LINE WITH ITS STRATEGY TO REPOSITION THE
GROUP



TG21, the vehicle installation service provider supplying public transport CCTV
and other monitoring systems, today announces that its subsidiary company, Toad
(UK) Limited ('Toad'), has disposed of its 'Sigma' and 'Toad Security'
businesses which distribute car alarms and immobilisers. In addition its
subsidiary, Integrated Technologies (International) Limited ('ITI') which
distributes in-vehicle interface leads and trades under the name 'Soundlinx' has
disposed of its business. The disposals have been made by way of asset sales.
The Sigma, Toad Security and Soundlinx names and inventory are to be sold to
Scorpion Electro Systems Limited ('Scorpion'), a private company based in
Chorley, Lancashire.


These Toad and ITI businesses together achieved breakeven in the six months to
30 June 2007 on sales of around £1.5m.


Scorpion is to pay a total cash consideration of £1.67m for the businesses which
includes £0.4m in respect of stock. £1m of the consideration was paid on
completion (13 December 2007) and the balance is to be paid in installments
during 2008. £0.4m will be payable within 120 days of completion; £0.07m is
payable in June 2008 and £0.2m in December 2008. Toad and ITI will incur
combined reorganisation costs of £0.2m and will make an exceptional provision
for remaining obsolete stock of £0.3m. In addition, the Group will make a
provision for onerous leases on vacant premises of £0.3m. The net cash proceeds
will be applied to reduce the Group's bank borrowing.


These disposals are a key step in the repositioning of the business. The Board
anticipates that certain non-recurring costs relating to this ongoing
repositioning will arise in the next financial year and the Board therefore
currently expects that this will have some impact on final year earnings for
2008.

[tanelorn] 05/12/2007 14:08

Lots of small sales gone through over the last week or so. These add up!
Expect we will see a purchase @ circa 5.5 as Gyllenhammer mops them up.
It would be rather nice to have more news from TG21 rather than waiting until March 08, the small holders are getting bored and selling slowly.

[nod] 04/12/2007 22:07

i'm tempted to say life's very quiet for TGP shareholders, but last time i said that the price dropped... so i won't

[tanelorn] 23/11/2007 01:35

Hello Nod>

The NU were keen to emphasise the 'none fiscal benefit' of PAYG in relation to the improved track record of young drivers and overall benefit to the nation. Clearly this is being utilised as a marketing ploy but one that's understandable given the governments' fixation with statistics.
Their refusal to be drawn over this aspect of discussion is natural. Such discussions are not always directional, rather taking a broad brush approach to garnishing future goodwill.

Nod, i agree especially with your final paragraph.... "Insurers would need to adopt a revolutionary business model to increase retention rates and lower admin costs".....

This i feel is ultimately why insurers will follow NU's lead and harks back to the point i made about Direct Line leading the way in the mid 80's.
Ultimately it's all about retention and dealing directly where possible. Brokers loyalty is to the customer not the insurer. Insurers would rather knock 12% commission off, deal direct ( especially online ) and hope they can improve retention.

... Final point, i asked whether the NU needed to invite renewal at all, bearing in mind they were simply sending monthly itemised statements to their customers. "Yes" he said, "its an industry ( he may have said legal ) requirement".

[nod] 22/11/2007 18:25

tanelorn - very interesting.

I would have thought PAYG just allows the insurers to segment a group more. It's generally believed that low-risk drivers have always subsidised high-risk drivers. By separating out low-risk you should be able to offer them much lower premiums. However, to compensate for this revenue loss the insurer would have to raise premiums on higher-risk drivers.

I don't drive many miles each year - I never have done in my 33 years of driving. However, my insurance premium has never reflected my driving pattern. In those 33 years I have only ever made one modest claim. My risk profile has been very low but this has never been reflected in my premiums. I therefore subsidise high risk or high mileage drivers.

I've had my current BMW 5 series estate from new - it's exactly 15 years old this month and done 75k miles. That's an average of 5k miles per year (with perhaps another 2k driving my wife's car but that is on her insurance). I have always paid the same insurance as someone who drives 100k miles per year.

The point here is there are many market segments that PAYG could target. However, the insurers know that lower risk users (like myself and my wife) subsidise the higher risk users. They can't lose revenue from the low risk without recovering that revenue from elsewhere. They can't do this because the market is highly competitive.

A point on the "churn". If the churn rate is 60% in two years you would have churned the equivalent of your entire policy book i.e. 120%. This illustrates how price competitive vehicle insurance is. The admin cost must be huge plus broker commissions. Insurers would need to adopt a revolutionary business model to increase retention rates and lower admin costs.

[tanelorn] 22/11/2007 13:28

Addendum to my previous post.

Everyone mistakenly believes that savings to the customer is the most important aspect of PAYG and will prove to be the driving force in offering the product, Wrong !

If an insurance company has 1000 policies and operates on a renewal retention of 40%, after 5 years offering renewal terms they are left with only 10.25 clients if the retention is 35% it's worse, only 1.84 clients.
Whereas @ 90% retention they still have 590 clients.

35% = 1.838 policies left
90% = 590 policies left.

I think this is the most remarkable aspect of the info offered by NU. This alone makes PAYG so important.

[tanelorn] 22/11/2007 12:32

Okay everyone, a little up date on PAYG.

As you are aware the NU are the industry leaders with PAYG and according to their press officer the major beneficiary of PAYG are the UK's young drivers. Some interesting facts:
1) Young drivers are 30% less likely to have an accident on their PAYG insurance policy than compared to a tradition none PAYG policy. This is an extremely important road safety issue as young drivers ( and persons over 70 yrs old ) are significantly more likely to be involved in serious accidents than any other group.
2) The average renewal retention on a private car policy for most insurers is only 30-40% ( 70 to 60% lapse each year - do not renew !) and reducing this lapse ratio significantly reduces administration costs. - the lapse ratio for PAYG is only 10%, that's a 90% retention !
3) PAYG with the NU is working and 'here to stay' - National TV coverage has not yet taken place and as yet there is no immediate plan to do so. Nonetheless business volumes are increasing and the NU are extremely pleased with progress and profitability.
4) Discussions with government and safety groups over the significant reduction in accidents due to the educational and awareness aspects of PAYG is ongoing, the implication being PAYG makes the young driver more aware of how his driving infracts upon other road users and especially his pocket. No further expansion on this point was forthcoming.


Other insurers ?
a) After digging around a bit, i can report that the only other major insurer currently running a PAYG pilot is 'Morethan' who i understand fit a black box, give a significant discount on initial premium and then charge extra depending upon driving times etc. This is slightly different to the NU's approach.
b) Other insurers have expressed interest but i cannot find any other insurer actually running trials. ( There maybe others under the NU or Morethan umbrella. )

Additional thought.

It would appear that the major beneficiaries of PAYG are those with higher premiums whereby the saving of 10-30% makes a large financial difference. Commercial Motor would seem to be an obvious market, ie Taxi Drivers, HGV, Haulage, Courier etc. A typical Taxi driver pays circa £1400 / year.
There are no Taxi insurers currently offering this, not even the NU. Something for the future.?