Templeton Emerging Marke... Share Discussion Threads

[hectorp] 21/1/2008 08:59

Take care guys, tricky market..

[dasv] 14/1/2008 22:04

Hectorp: cheers :)

Mart: yes tried to buy IZBL today and was impossible online. TEM is much more liquid :)

[hectorp] 14/1/2008 21:00

dasv only... RDG Mining ! RDG ( not yet producing)

[mart] 14/1/2008 20:47

IBZL has a dire spread in my experience (limited!).

[dasv] 13/1/2008 15:31

Hectorp - out of interest what platinum shares do you hold? Lonmin? I have BRR which as you may know is a PGM/Ni play - though PGM production is currently on a small scale.

(BTW again as you may know the ETF IZBL tracks the Bovespa index)

[hectorp] 13/1/2008 15:09

Maybe - but only time can tell.

- Brasilian Investments direct anyone? Apparently Brasil has little exposure to sub-prime .

[dasv] 12/1/2008 21:11

Hi Hectorp,

I agree - my comments really just refer to the average PE of the Shanghai Index and the average PE of India's versus that of Brazil's.

average PE in China is over 40

average PE in Indian markets is mid twenties?



average PE in Brazil's Bovespa is about 14:-


I agree the story in India and China is unprecedented so perhaps these multiples are irrelevant.

[hectorp] 12/1/2008 18:55

hi dasv
With such massive and dynamic events ( the modernisation of Chindia etc) I don't see any precendents. For example, India may possess 600M motor vehicles in 17 years according to a report today. OK many of these cars cost around £1-2K. But the point is there.
( good reason to be holding PGMS and their shares, eg Platinum etc).
I digress. TEM is also a currency play Fund.
Enough to be a holder.

[dasv] 11/1/2008 11:49

and me!

I agree the yen and yuan will appreciate.. India I think is toppy and too service economy based. But I know little to be honest about that particular market - just that the stock market there has had a great run already.

[hectorp] 11/1/2008 10:56

China 'only' 18% (2). I also hold JMC ( CHina Fund) I still have a yen for it, lol, sorry.
Its partly the currency attraction of the FAr East and China in particular.
Also Hong Kong is more attractive than Shangai .
At 4% I still expect India to outperform, it is under-repesented, IMO but I am not running the show, Mobius is smarter tna me.

[dasv] 11/1/2008 10:07

Largest holdings - 30-Nov-07
Holding (%) Rank Prev Holding (%) Rank Prev
HYUNDAI DEVELOPMENT CO 6.7 1 (1) BANCO BRADESCO SA 4.4 6 (7)
COMPANHIA VALE DO RIO DOCE 6.0 2 (2) PETROCHINA CO 4.1 7 (5)
UNIBANCO UNIAO DE BANCOS BRASILEIRO 5.7 3 (3) SK ENERGY CO LTD 4.1 8 (9)
CHINA PETROLEUM & CHEMICAL CORP 4.6 4 (8) PETROLEO BRASILEIRO SA PETROBRAS 3.9 9 (10)
AKBANK TURK ANONIM SIRKETI TRY1 4.5 5 (4) ALUMINIUM CORP OF CHINA 3.7 10 (6)

Regional weightings - 30-Nov-07
Region (%) Prev
Brazil (including US listings) 23.7 (1)
China 18.0 (2)
South Korea 14.8 (3)
Russia (including US listings) 9.4 (5)
Turkey 9.1 (4)
Thailand 8.0 (6)
Others 4.7 (7)
India 4.0 (8)
Hungary 3.9 (9)
Poland 2.6 (10)
Total 98.3

Sector weightings - 30-Nov-07
Sector (%) Prev
Oil & Gas - Integrated 22.5 (1)
Diversified Banks 20.2 (2)
Diversified Metals & Mining, Aluminum 15.6 (3)
Others 14.2 (4)
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing 8.9 (5)
Construction & Engineering 6.7 (6)
Wireless Telecommunication Services 4.0 (7)
Automobile Manufacturers 3.1 (8)
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production 2.9 (9)
Pharmaceuticals 1.9 -
Total 100.0

[dasv] 11/1/2008 10:05

Yes indeed - I am troubled by the average PE of Shanghai though - I don't want exposure to China at these stage in the game. However I am very interested in Brazil, Russia and emerging Europe.

[hectorp] 11/1/2008 08:26

It dosnt seem to want to drop back. There must be good investment reasons why it remains strong. One is currency play. TEM is a positive statement on getting out of USD and sterling and into growth currencies. Had rates been cut here yesterday, it would have helped TEM. UK seem sure to cut next month, US next week.

[dasv] 09/1/2008 23:13

I've been looking at these in recent weeks for an entry point but there hasn't been an obvious one. I guess I could buy in tranches to get a reasonable average to start with. Also like MLLA...

[hectorp] 09/1/2008 09:10

FTSE down: TEM up. What more do we need to know. Added TEM yesterday. Better late, then never for 2008.

[hectorp] 02/1/2008 18:36

When we see a couple of big dow down days, maybe like today, it will be very helpful to see how TEM reacts.
A few days could be a good guide.
MAybe as an emerging market bull I have missed the proverbial, boat. At least I am not going to lose any money as I dont yet hold any!

[hectorp] 23/12/2007 13:40

Ist tips for 2008...
UBS, in co-operation with 'Scotland on Sunday''s Bill Jamieson, generally a bear, state that Emerging Markets will slip in 2008 to only 7% growth - a fall of 1% and to 6.5% in 2009, this takes account of some or much of the effect of credit conditions in the west but also allows for some continuation of growth in Emerging markets.
These growth figures and comparisons with the West ( UK and US seeing two years of lower growth) suggest it may be wise to be in Emerging Markets including China for the coming 12-18 months.
However as a bit of insurance it could be sensible to be buying UK Financials but probably not for the next few months ( I disagree, I see further falls here adding to even better value later) .

Bill also estimates crude may fall to $60 - but I am not with him in this.
However should this occur it is good for all equity markets regardless.

[chester] 06/12/2007 09:12

Hectorp , yep looks like a Breakout very soon.

[hectorp] 06/12/2007 09:04

TEM very bullish, about to achieve new all time high?

[hectorp] 01/12/2007 18:42

The active trader in the FT - " emerging markets? tricky... in this downturn, short them'
Is he wise?

[hectorp] 29/11/2007 18:15

TEM's large move today suggests it is presupposing some recovery.
I missed buying again, and I'd want to see some weakness again before I do!
H.

[mart] 28/11/2007 21:42

Good day all round. Wonder if it'll continue. TEM has done well. Sorry not to be on board but might get in in the morning. Currently testing a position on the Hang Seng and Nikkei with some covered warrants which are doing quite nicely. With the market being so volatile it seems appropriate to try and catch big moves with index oriented warrants and then 'invest' in the market as and when it steady's a bit. Anyway, time will tell whether it's a strategy that works. Still got JMC though.

[hectorp] 28/11/2007 08:57

Mart, I still would be happier if TEM were to test the support seen on the chart above, it sits around 375p. This would need a futher downleg of the current weak markets. Of course I may not get it.
Gold - I use CFD gold long and short, recently closed longs at $825 from $790's, gold is back at $801 today, support I expect to be around $790, see if oil holds .. still think gold will be over $850 again by Xmas, but in low volume trading, verey volatile, I'd take profits from your warrants then but WDIK.
H

[mart] 26/11/2007 11:43

H
Long term you are right about TEM. BUT, I was just taking advantage of a spike in a sprogs portfolio. Used the money to get into SL70 (gold covered warrant). Haven't regretted that :-) Got some JMC round about the bottom which will be a long hold.
One thing I note is that TEM seems to be an early mover in relation to market volatility.

[hectorp] 26/11/2007 10:51

mart
TEM tipped to buy in weekend FT Money pages, as is JMC.
Far from selling as you did, I am starting to build my ist position long in these markets.
I suggest TEM could double again in two more years, how about that.