Tekmar Share Discussion Threads

[whatlp] 20/4/2009 16:37

The TFL results are out in June so will be post AGM

[gogoneko] 20/4/2009 15:55

If things work out right (principally TfL) then we may see a repeat of 2003 when they looked to be turning things around for the co. A lot of bad decisions and false dawns since then of course so no surprise that investors are cautious.

[rivaldo] 20/4/2009 15:34

Crikey, a 50k buy at 5.25p!

Gogoneko, that's good work on the H1/H2 split, I'd failed to pick that up. TGP made a £580k operating profit on continuing operations in H2 - annualise that and you get £1.16m operating profit on a £4.5m m/cap which is almost covered by property/tangible assets anyway.

The AGM is 26th May, so not long to go. I'm not expecting any property disposal news - you know how long these planning issues take to sort out. I wonder if there are any local council web sites we can access for news? Anyone know?

The £2.7m property is for me ample back-up for the £4.5m m/cap, along with the other tangible assets. If disposal news comes then we'll be in clover.

I'm sure we'll get a trading update at the AGM. I'm searching for news on the TFL CCTV contract, but nowt yet. I agree with you about small company brokers, and in fact most - including house brokers - have been erring on the negative in recent years so as not to appear over-bullish, especially in recent markets.

[nod] 17/4/2009 11:10

gogenko - Daniel Stewart is both Financial Adviser and House Broker to TGP and tends to err on the positive side rather than the negative side

[gogoneko] 17/4/2009 09:47

There were two things which I haven't factored in for H1: 1) whether the property gets sold or not, 2) whether they can negotiate staged repayment from CCL

Personally I don't care much for broker notes on AIM stocks. As far as I could make out, in the absence of exceptionals, H2 '08 would have generated about £588k PBT so I'll be very disappointed if they perform worse than that considering what they said about current trade.

I certainly hope to have an update on trading and TfL either at the AGM or in a pre-close update before end-June. Now though I'm not sitting as comfortably as I did on the sidelines as any bad news will hit my pocket! ;)

[rivaldo] 17/4/2009 08:47

The current m/cap is £4.1m, which compares to around £4.2m net tangible assets.

And TGP could have £2.7m in cash if the property sale option is taken up after planning permission.

Gogoneko, your 0.7p EPS for H1 is encouraging! But the way things are going it's not far-fetched.

More to the point, if TFL confirm the CCTV contract soon then things will really swing.

The last broker forecast was for £300k PBT this year and £500k PBT next year. Perhaps DAN will update after the 21st Century acquisition as you say nod.

Best to use these figures and compare to m/cap - I don't trust the EPS figure from Digital Look quoted above as it doesn't seem correct, and unfortunately DAN don't make their morning reports available free any more.

[nod] 17/4/2009 01:30

DAN had an EPS of -0.1p for 2009

this would not include the new 21C investment and issue of new shares, which would both reduce EPS in the current year.

DAN should issue an update soon, as the 21C acquisition is a fairly significant business change. DAN are as close to the company as anyone can get so you would be foolish to ignore their estimates.

[gogoneko] 17/4/2009 00:50

It'd be interesting to see what other peoples EPS figures are, mine for H1 '09 (based on Distribution staying static YoY, PTMS growing revenues 10/15% YoY, and Installations declining 20% YoY and improving margins and op. efficiency) are:

Revs: 6.27m (Dis: same@0.85m; PTMS=+10/15%YoY=4.23m-4.43m; Ins: -20%YoY=1.12m
Costs: (2.2m)
Gross: 4.07m
Admin: (3.25m)
Op.Prof: 0.82m
Finan: (0.01m)
P/LbT: 0.81m
Tax: (0.15m)

Profit:0.66m

eps: 0.7p

That profit will all fall into TG21's pockets rather now that the minority interest is absorbed, although payment for 25% of 21C = 0.553m probably needs to be taken from profits (with another 0.5m Jan '10). My principal concern is, as usual, with the management failing to deliver - the above is almost too good to be true! Thereafter it's the decline in installation revenue, I worry that it could be falling much faster even though PTMS growth should cover it.

[whatlp] 16/4/2009 17:22

gogoneko - lol

nod - perhaps rivaldo can answer that one

[gogoneko] 16/4/2009 10:15

Well at least the name won't need to change again for another 91 years!

[nod] 16/4/2009 09:09

whatlp - what EPS figure are you using to calculate PER?

I've looked elsewhere and the figures are the same and appear to be based on DAN's EPS forecast which is 0.10p

As DAN is the only broker covering TGP, everyone is using DAN's figures.

Perhaps someone who subscribes to the DAN reports (Rivaldo?) can explain how DAN arrives at an EPS of 0.10p for 2010

Basic EPS under FRS3 is calculated after tax and exceptionals and extraords, so perhaps these deductions are driving down the EPS figure.

[donaceaceace] 16/4/2009 08:30

Dear Thread owner & investors

I hope you are well and jolly.

Please take this as an invitation to my thread :-)



Regards,

DA

[gogoneko] 16/4/2009 08:28

Following a couple of reasonably good RNSs I looked at the figures last night and decided that H1 at least should produce some ok numbers so I just dipped my toes in with 40k (yeah, it looks like a sell). I can't say that I've convinced myself yet that it's a good investment, but maybe the company has moved into sustained profitability.

[whatlp] 16/4/2009 07:06

Given a PBT of 500k, and the number of shares that will be in issue, the forward PER is around 10 - a very healthy figure.

[risk1] 15/4/2009 22:39

whats up with advfn???

loads threads missing????

tia

[whatlp] 15/4/2009 22:38

Nod, I think you need to look at your figures again - that PER is well out of whack.

[nod] 15/4/2009 22:15

I see Daniel Stewart has TGP moving into profit in 2010 with a PBT of 500k

That would be good but this puts TGP on a PER of 46 for 2010. This looks pricey to me given the business growth prospects.

[rivaldo] 15/4/2009 15:53

Looks like 200k bought at 4.76p (can't be a rollover or transfer as no differential). Perhaps Gyllenhammer is topping up again.

[gogoneko] 15/4/2009 11:45

Ooops! I hadn't realised that the shares had nominal value of 10p.

As far as I'm aware the company couldn't have issued new shares for less than the nominal value. So if I'm correct I now interpret today's news as the company probably didn't want to go into debt again so is delaying some payment and offering overpriced shares. Still a good result as far as the company is concerned, but not as impressive as first assumed.

[nod] 15/4/2009 11:19

I assume that is Paul Frodsham who has taken his stake in TGP to around 5% after new shares are issued. He appears to have given away 600k pounds... or am I mising something.

[rivaldo] 15/4/2009 08:59

Excellent news today.

Underlying all this is that 21st Century is obviously continuing to perform well and must have excellent prospects to make TG21 take up their option.

In particular, the results of the TFL CCTV trial will be out soon. I'd have thought this RNS might be a signal that TGP are expecting a positive result.

I've previously outlined my belief of Arriva's intentions to roll out what has to be EcoManager across the UK and perhaps Europe based on their RNS's.

With the high tangible NAV, excellent cash flow and profitable trading TGP remain very undervalued imo. If the property is sold for £2.7m, or even anything like, the current £3.7m m/cap will be history.

[gogoneko] 15/4/2009 08:41

I think my eyesight's gone funny this morning... that looks like respectable news from TG21! In today's environment they have negotiated well, although equally the seller seems to have undersold themselves for some reason.

[woodie3] 15/4/2009 07:12

RNS Number : 5571Q
TG21 Plc
15 April 2009






15 April 2009




TG21 plc ('TG21', 'the company' or 'the group')




Acquisition of remaining 25% of the ordinary shares in 21st Century Crime Prevention Services Ltd ('21st Century')




TG21, the vehicle installation service provider supplying public transport CCTV and other monitoring systems, today announces that it has acquired the remaining 25% of the ordinary shares in 21st Century Crime Prevention Services Ltd ('21st Century') and that as a consequence 21st Century is now a wholly owned subsidiary of the group.

21st Century supplies on board CCTV and other monitoring systems to the public transport market and for the year ended 31 December 2008 made a profit before tax of £1.6m on turnover of £7.7m.

This acquisition is pursuant to the option agreement dated 18 December 2004 to acquire the entire share capital of 21st Century. However, the purchase consideration for this final 25% of the equity of 21st Century has been amended by agreement with the vendor.

The original option specified a cash consideration of £2,107,825 to be paid for the remaining shares immediately that the option was taken up. The revised consideration under the renegotiated terms comprises a mixture of cash, deferred cash and new shares in TG21 the details of which are as follows:

i) £553,912 in cash paid on completion

ii) £500,000 in cash to be paid by 4 January 2010

iii) 10,539,125 new TG21 ordinary shares to be issued to the vendor as fully paid up at 10p per share and with a nominal value of £1,053,913

The vendor has also waived any pro-rata entitlement to dividend arising in 21st Century during the current year. The 2008 minority interest dividend was £300,000.

The shares issued to the vendor as part of the total consideration ((iii) above) are subject to a 12 month lock-in agreement.




Chairman of TG21, Peter Ward commented:

'I am delighted that we have been able to complete the purchase of the remaining share capital in 21st Century as this subsidiary is making an increasing contribution to the group's operations and results.

'I am also pleased to report that, given the current economic climate, we have successfully renegotiated the purchase consideration to include shares in TG21. Based on TG21's closing mid share price on 14 April 2009 of 4.63p, the revised consideration has yielded a saving in excess of £0.5m compared to the original cash consideration and a further £0.5m saving has been made in cash outflow. The purchase also means, of course, that we will retain within the group the future share of profits in 21st Century which previously would have been distributed to the minority interest by way of dividend. It is particularly pleasing and notable that the vendor has demonstrated his confidence in the group with an effective target price of 10p per TG21 share required for him to realise the total value of the sale proceeds which he originally anticipated.

'With full ownership comes a further concentration of the business on innovative CCTV and monitoring products for public transport companies, including the recent development and launch of 'EcoManager' which is aimed at saving fuel and improving safety for bus operators by monitoring driver behaviour.'