Tclarke Share Discussion Threads

[edmundshaw] 18/6/2020 15:53

Yup, 3.65p.

Easy to miss that as normally CTO goes ex in April...

[basem1] 18/6/2020 08:03

Ex Div today guys and girls

[effortless cool] 16/6/2020 11:15

These CEIO blogs are well-written and demonstrate a high level of strategic thinking.

[squarepeg86] 16/6/2020 10:58

https://www.tclarke.co.uk/in-touch-with-tomorrow-infrastructure/

[basem1] 12/6/2020 16:16

Tipped somewhere ??

[jeff h] 10/6/2020 15:21

Sounds encouraging:-

"Contractors report that around 97% of infrastructure and construction sites are now operating, up from 93% a fortnight ago.

According to a survey of firms by trade body Build UK output is now starting to rise slowly as firms get to grips with 2m distancing and safer working practices.

Infrastructure sites are now achieving 89% of pre-Covid productivity, up from 85% two weeks ago. Even on more challenging building sites productivity is up to 78% from 74% two weeks ago....."

[cwa1] 09/6/2020 16:20

What a contrarian! As all the other stocks surge we go backwards, or stay level. The first poor market for ages and, of course, Tommy powers ahead!

[squarepeg86] 08/6/2020 14:31

Thanks, odd though as it works perfect for me on my phone.

[effortless cool] 08/6/2020 14:04

You need to hit return after pasting.

[squarepeg86] 08/6/2020 14:03

hTTps://www.tclarke.co.uk/in-touch-with-tomorrow-data-centres/

[lasmo] 08/6/2020 11:33

Good Morning CC2014, like many private investors I have found it difficult to make up my mind on which way the market is going. IMHO, so much hinges on an effective treatment or vaccine for COVID. In the absence of either I agree with most of your post. However if you believe many of the positive news reports on vaccine progress, then I think the situation will be very different.

With or without a vaccine, there will be a "new normal", but that has an upside for CTO. For example, living closer to work, to reduce / avoid public transport use, will lead to more development of inner city brown field sites. In addition, large shopping centre space will be redeveloped for satellite hub type office space, similar to the WeWork proposition. This is already happening to WestField shopping centre in Stratford. Government investment in hospitals I believe will continue. Finally there's the investments to level up the North South divide. So not all bad. I've come to the conclusion that although the pending recession could be worse than markets are indicating, I'm still prepared to hold some UK focused equity and for now it might as well be in CTO.

[edmundshaw] 08/6/2020 10:28

So you sold some and are now bearish CC2014? That is logical.

But longer term CTO is well managed and worth a lot more than £1, and right now markets are looking through the short term problems. The housing shortage is not going away, and while office building will slow, CTO are moving nicely into data centres and upgrading existing offices, plus they have a good competitive advantage. I don't think they will suffer badly.

Pension deficits come and go. Bond rates WILL recover (eventually), and I suspect the treasury/government are going to be forced to allow some measure of inflation above its long term target of 2%...

Personally I think CTO is dipping from trading out after the price hike on the IC tip...

[cc2014] 08/6/2020 09:47

could be this.



Which means one of T Clarke's selling points on financial security is now far less valuable and the race to the bottom on margins won't be constrained by fears of companies going bust at least in the short term.

Also, their weak competitors aren't so likely to go bust.


(I'm not in favour of goverments propping up weaker companies in this way as if you are going to build a hotel, it will take the same number of jobs regardless of whether a financially robust company builds it or a weak one. Propping up the weak ones is part of the construction industries problem).


It seems to have done wonders for Kier's share price though unless there's some other news today

[cc2014] 08/6/2020 09:34

Basem1. It depends.

Many on this board many consider T Clarke undervalued and point to the low P/E, high order book and positive cash. I strongly agreed with them 6 before Covid-19.

Looking forward we have to work out what those numbers will look like in 2-5 years time. I'm fairly pessimistic. Other's aren't.

I see in the next 3 years:
No new hotels/restaurants/pubs/sports stadia being built
No new retail being built
No new airport investment
Huge drop in office development (alot more working from home)
Companies scaling back maintentance (to save cash)
Housing market struggling at best

The overall pot of work is going to decrease for sure. I'm quite sure the management at T Clarke will ensure they pick up a higher percentage of the pot but the pot is going to be so much smaller.

Of course T Clarke can diversify, push to do more datacentres and building management software installations, but they are already telling you the future isn't rosy as they have lauched redundancies.

The M&E sector is the last trade on the job so it's the last trade to go downhill and the last to recover in the construction sector.


Also, the pension deficit is now a significant problem. It was £26.5m at year end and since then both bond yields and share prices have gone badly in the wrong direction. It's now over £30m. That's a large number of years profits after tax.


Finally, we all have to make a call where the FTSE/DOW/DAX etc. are going. I think they've all had a good run. Regardless of where they are in 12 months time they are due a techncial retrace to test the strength of the rally. Some might just see this as a good opportunity to take some money off the table to reinvest later lower down. I sold stuff late last week as it just too much too fast. There's alwasys another trade another day.

[basem1] 08/6/2020 08:24

Have I missed something ?

[theoldcodger] 04/6/2020 09:28

Miton are not listed as a substantial shareholder in T Clarke's 2019 Annual Report, which gives the updated shareholdings as at 19 March 2020 i.e. they cannot hold more than 3% (roughly 1.3M shares). My guess is that Miton have disposed of their entire shareholding, but that's just conjecture on my part.

TOC

[gdjs100] 04/6/2020 08:51

Miton own 2.1m shares.

[18bt] 04/6/2020 06:59

Not in the top 20 MINI shareholdings as shown on their website

[norbert colon] 03/6/2020 19:16

The £71m Miton UK Microcap (MINI) is set to shrink by a fifth after owners of 19.5% of its shares sold them in the investment trust's annual redemption facility. Not sure if Miton still own CTO?

[basem1] 03/6/2020 10:58

Juicy spread should create some buying ? Anyone selling now is selling a nice yield down the river.

[cc2014] 03/6/2020 07:50

the spread during the day was 105.5-109.5 for the first 3 hours, moved to 103.5-109.5 in the middle of the day and then changed to 103.5-107.5 into the close.

It would therefore have been impossible to buy yesterday at 104.1 in any volume let alone 47k. The spread closing to the downside tends to suggest it's a sell as the MM's seek to balance their books.

However those 25k and 10.25k sells could just as easily be causing the closing in spread to the downside.

It could be a left order buy order on commission from the day before when the market moved up fast to 105, which got partially filled yesterday and then the rest got filled today from the sales at 103.5.


So, in my view either it's a buy that's already been squared off by the MM's or it's a sell and the MM are still looking for buy orders to balance their books.

[squarepeg86] 02/6/2020 23:30

Thanks gdjs100, that makes sense. Pretty much how I saw things to be. It just always made me question it when people stipulate a trade as a buy or a sell.

[gdjs100] 02/6/2020 22:57

It's true that for every buyer there's a seller. What's interesting though is who is the aggressor. In any transaction there is always a price maker (could be a market maker, but could be anyone else laying passively in the book providing liquidity) and a price taker (the aggressor, taking the liquidity from the book). If the buyers are taking liquidity (lifting offers) from the book or from market makers, the price will move up in due course, and vice versa (sellers hitting bids).

[squarepeg86] 02/6/2020 22:28

I never fully understand the buy vs sells argument. Isn't it both because in order for somebody to sell, somebody else must buy so it's a trade at that price? Or is it because there's not always a buyer on the other end of the trade and the mm's will buy the shares?

[basem1] 02/6/2020 21:50

Be interested to know if that 46000 trade at 104.1 was a buy or a sell My guess is a negotiated buy as the sells just before that trade were at 103.22