Tclarke Share Discussion Threads

[its the oxman] 26/5/2017 18:30

Pressure building for a push through 100p. Just a matter of time now.

[tuscan4] 26/5/2017 13:18

I paid 90.45 this morning. With a target fair value price of 125p to 150p it is not worth worrying about a few decimal places IMHO

[basem1] 26/5/2017 13:10

Oooooh a nice 25000 buy too. I tried for a few more at 89.5 but nothing doing.

[basem1] 26/5/2017 12:31

Just topped up another 15000 at 89.5p Gift horse territory

[johnv] 25/5/2017 16:05

He only gave this a passing mention last time, so it could have a full main write up this time

[cc2014] 25/5/2017 15:39

It certainly looks like the bid at 90 is now solid and the sellers if not exhausted are close to it.

[allstar4eva] 25/5/2017 15:36

Gagging to break out!

[cc2014] 23/5/2017 22:21

Bid at 90 again today. It seems seller wants 90 now. 89 doesn't interest them.
All about wearing resistance down.

Feeling good

[rivaldo] 22/5/2017 15:50

The true spread at present online is 88.25p-90p - you can buy a maximum 35k shares at 90p, and can sell almost as many, so fairly evens.

[cc2014] 22/5/2017 13:38

Yeah - another attached at 90, with it seems a few sellers still coming through at 90.

A six point spread 88-94 is a bit harsh suggesting the MM's don't know which way it's going next.

[rivaldo] 22/5/2017 09:42

A fresh attack coming on the highs?

Worth remembering the AGM statement from only two weeks ago - this year's forecast is now up to 11.92p EPS (with a 3.46p dividend), but that should be conservative with say 12.5p+ EPS likely and perhaps even the 14p EPS suggested above:



"Our confidence for the medium term is underpinned by this ability to secure significant projects in the markets where we operate. As a result of new project wins our replenished order book has for the first time surpassed £400 million and as at the 30th April stood at £402 million an increase of 22% since the beginning of the year.

As a result of the strengthening order book and based upon current project programmes we expect revenues and profits for 2017 to be ahead of current market expectations, which are revenues of £300 million, underlying profit before tax of £6.1 million and underlying EPS of 11.3p."

[interceptor2] 15/5/2017 16:15

I think that a 2% net margin figure could be a realistic possibility, they did achieve 1.75% last year on an adjusted basis mainly due to a one off £2.4m charge for the fraud and the cost involved in trying to recover some of the money, and they were charged a full tax rate.

Might even see a one off gain this year if they mange to recover some of the money.

Even using the same net margin figure as last year of 1.75% gives an EPS of close to 14.0p, so any pleasant surprises to margins or revenue are likely to make a large difference.

[tuscan4] 15/5/2017 11:08

If you look at CTO pre-tax margins pre the 08/09 recession they were as follows: 2002 7.5% 03 6.2% 04 5.0% 05 4.4% 06 3.5% 07 4.2% 08 6.1% 08 4.1%.
Dividend payments were from 2006 onwards 10.5P, 11p, 12p, 13p, 13p and then the recession reset them lower. Dividend cover was around 1.5 times as they had little need for cash flow retention and they tended to use surplus cash flow for small infill acquisitions.
Now I know the business has changed with the M& E contracting push which may reduce margins somewhat as well as requiring more cash flow retention. Competition has also been severe since 2010 pressuring margins but CTO appears to have repositioned its business at the top end of the market with premier developers and I would expect their margins to be rather higher than 2% during the next few years. Once the Pension deficit fears are assuaged either by higher funding/rising gilt yields a return to say a Dividend Cover of 2X would allow a dividend much closer to the levels seen in the 2004/10 period.

[cfro] 15/5/2017 10:11

Is 2% margin fair? Not sure if they will achieve that might be a bit less but lets see.

[interceptor2] 15/5/2017 09:05

A very good post cc2014 which gives a good summary of where the company is now and it's prospects.

For me the stand out part of the recent AGM statement was the increase in the order book since year end 31st December, from £330m to £402m is very impressive. I wonder what revenue figure CTO will achieve this year?

Results for 2016 showed that revenues were 93% of the starting order book of £300m, and 2015 saw revenues at 97% of the starting order book, so an average of 95%.

So if a figure of 95% of 2016 year end order book of £330, is used this would give a projected revenue of £313.5m for 2017, but I would think that some extra allowance for the large increase of new orders won since the year is fair to include.

I decided to calculate my own estimates using a revenue figure of £330m, because CTO are focussing on improving net margins which increased to 1.75% from 1.40% in the last full year results, I thought that a 2% net margin figure might be fair? Just running these ratios gives an EPS of 15.86p, which I believe to is a fairly conservative way to project earnings for the year.

I wondered how these projections seemed to other investors here?

[rivaldo] 15/5/2017 08:26

Breaking out upwards - AT trade buying at 93p now.

[cfro] 14/5/2017 17:22

Thanks for your synopsis CC2014. Very helpful for a newcomer to the share like me who is still getting to grips with the company.

[johnv] 13/5/2017 15:34

Should get a mention in SCSW next month

[allstar4eva] 13/5/2017 12:27

The news already issued should drive the share price higher in due course. It doesn't always get priced? in straight away.

[che7win] 12/5/2017 16:18

Nice dividend received today, hope you enjoy yours.

[cfro] 11/5/2017 14:55

Have been busy adding to my holdings today. Price looks to be holding neatly above 90p now.